Games Workshop Group (LSE: GAW)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 04/02/2023

GBP94.70

230.00 (2.49%)

Market capitalisation

GBP3,041m

Games Workshop is a leading international specialist designer, manufacturer and multi-channel retailer of miniatures, scenery, artwork and fiction for tabletop miniature games set in its fantasy Warhammer worlds.

GAW is the global leader for tabletop miniature gaming, a market it created. Tabletop miniature gaming is the fastest-growing segment of the global non-digital games market, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% between 2017 and 2023 and reach a value exceeding $12bn.

Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Key Management

  • John Brewis

    Non-executive chairman

  • Kevin Rountree

    CEO

  • Rachel Tongue

    CFO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (£m)

75.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

29

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 10.6 46.8 13.5
Relative 4.7 33.4 12.3
52 week high/low 9470.0p/5690.0p

Financials

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) record H123 results included strong revenue recovery in Retail as COVID-19 restrictions eased, foreign exchange gains, offset by some negative effects, specifically from Russia and China, and flat sales in the key North American market. The lower reported profit reflects the well-known external cost pressures and investment to support future revenue growth, partially offset by good cost control. Our profit estimates are unchanged but we increase our dividend estimate. The recent strong share price performance takes the prospective FY23e multiple (23.9x) to between its recent long-run average (17.2x) and peak multiples (over 30x).

Y/E May Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 369.6 178.3 150.9 370.5 25.6 23.5
2022A 414.8 193.2 156.5 390.6 24.2 25.6
2023E 447.0 196.5 160.4 389.6 24.3 20.2
2024E 461.1 211.1 169.2 384.5 24.6 18.3

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