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Why are the GLP-1 drugs having an effect on consumer behaviour?
The recent increasing adoption of GLP-1 drugs has fundamentally changed the landscape of weight loss and health habits. Prescription medicines such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro are practically household names, becoming common in modern daily life.
Kantar’s household panel data shows that the usage of GLP-1s nearly doubled within UK homes, from 2.3% in March 2024 to 4.1 % in August 2025. The Institute of Grocery Distribution’s (IGD’s) shopper tracking puts usage of GLP-1s at 6% in March this year; separately, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) forecasts this figure could reach 13% by 2027, specifically contingent on the June 2026 Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval of the first oral pill. These three independent measures – two retrospective, one forwards-looking – point towards the same direction: usage is accelerating rather than plateauing. Subsequently, it has restructured consumer spending habits and what individuals allocate their money to.
How are financial institutions responding?
Financial institutions have already begun quantifying the scale of the reallocation. Barclays analysts estimate that the global protein market alone could grow by as much as 37% over the next five years, driven in part by what they describe as a structural tailwind from GLP-1 adoption. The protein market is simply the most visible example of a broader pattern – similar effects are emerging across alcohol, fitness, food, hospitality and wellness sectors.
Spending is evidently shifting away from categories tied to large, calorific portions and towards those aligned with wellness, reduced appetite and moderation. Rather than passing dietary trends, these shifts suggest something closer to a repricing of consumer demand.
What changes are GLP-1s catalysing?
As appetites shrink, the body’s nutritional requirements do not shrink with them. It is this mismatch that is reshaping demand across sectors from alcohol to wellness. GLP-1s work by slowing gastric emptying, which reduces feelings of hunger and regulates appetite. Alongside weight loss, there is also a risk of the body breaking down muscle as an energy substitute, resulting in lean muscle loss. Increased protein intake can prevent this, providing essential health and wellness support and ensuring nutritional adequacy. For an individual with regular physical activity, the standard recommended daily allowance (RDA) for protein is 0.8g/kg/day; GLP-1 use inflates this recommended daily protein requirement to 1.2–1.6g/kg/day.
How are companies adapting to consumer demand?
The GLP-1 user population is moving away from nutritionally poor foods and towards higher protein, smaller portion and nutrient dense options. PwC reports a spending drag and that consumers have spent 70% less on ‘indulgence within grocery’ such as snacks and confectionary.
Capitalising on the pivot, many firms in the food industry have had to adapt their products to cater to the latest consumer demands. These companies have already adopted new nutritional priorities, releasing dedicated products including Marks & Spencer’s (LSE: MKS, c £8.36bn market cap) ‘Nutrient Dense’ line, THG’s (LSE: THG, c £509.8m market cap) new range of Myprotein branded on-the-go food items, Applied Nutrition’s (LSE: APN, c £795m market cap) ‘GLP-1 Friendly’ collection in collaboration with Morrisons, and Glanbia’s (Euronext Dublin: GL9, c €5.5bn market cap) functional protein solutions. Ocado Group (LSE: OCDO, c £1.81bn market cap) has launched a curated range of GLP-1 friendly products in response to a growing number of customers adopting smaller portions and nutrient dense dietary habits. Similarly, HelloFresh (OTCM: HLFFF, c £430m market cap) now offer specific recipe filters designed for those taking GLP-1.
New products and recipes focus on high protein, fibre and nutrient dense ingredients to manage the side effects of GLP-1. Following these modified commodities, Grocery stores have been able to capitalise on this alteration in preferences and ultimately aren’t experiencing any major long-term losses.
Who are the winners in this case?
While supermarket chains and nutritionally oriented retailers are finding success in adapting their products in accordance with consumer demand, the fitness sector is also gaining from such a market tailwind. Deutsche Bank analysts have confidently recognised TheGymGroup’s (LSE: GYM, c £356.9m market cap) position to benefit from this growing focus on fitness and wellbeing, with survey data showing that c 60% of GLP-1 users believe it is important to increase exercise levels while on the medication. Similarly, Technogym’s (BIT: TGYM, c €2.8bn market cap) FY25 results press release directly states that their services are increasingly important in response to the growing use of GLP-1 for patients.
PwC has reported that pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN, c £178.6bn market cap) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY, c £744.9bn market cap) are also gaining from increased GLP-1 consumption and are expected to continue growing with a projected increase in GLP-1 prescriptions for diabetes and obesity.
Consumers are not replacing supermarkets with alternative solutions, rather they are just altering purchases to match their dietary preferences. However, it is evident in Kantar’s real-time data that GLP-1 users are cutting their grocery spend by 2.2% more than non-users, and the grocery sector has lost an estimated £136m in food and drink spending.
Which industries are facing a battle with GLP-1s?
Research from Cornell University has highlighted that the fast-food industry is also experiencing a slight decline with expenditures dropping by 8% within six months of a consumer using a GLP-1 weight-loss drug. McDonald’s Corp (NYSE: MCD, c £140.4bn market cap) encountered a shortfall in EPS in comparison to the expected figure, causing investors to question near-term profitability.
In the case of quick-service restaurants, consumers aren’t switching to healthier options, they’re simply eating less due to the effects of GLP-1 use and the lifestyle that is adopted alongside. While experiencing a decline, this is not a total loss for fast-food establishments and quick-service restaurants. Organisations offering variety in portion sizes and prioritising quality over quantity will likely maintain a healthy profit and attract GLP-1 users.
Is GLP-1 consumption just a phase or a new way of life?
Using GLP-1s may appear as a fast-track method to achieving weight-loss goals, but like most fitness and nutrition programmes, persistence is key to success. Despite clinical trials displaying evidence of GLP-1 use being maintained, levels of adherence to the course in the real-world remains substantially lower. Although some evidence of GLP-1 users not persisting with treatment can be explained by supply shortages and changing product availability, other reasons for discontinuation include side effects such as nausea and diarrhoea as well as unmet weight-loss or blood sugar expectations.
A study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Network Open platform revealed that consumers who faced disappointment with the product were often diagnosed with Type-2 diabetes, and 46.5% of those patients discontinued GLP-1 use within the first year. Those without Type-2 diabetes have a higher discontinuation rate, suggesting that limitations to access are significant enough to discourage use of GLP-1s. The Health Foundation report has also hypothesised that those in less affluent areas are more likely to discontinue use for affordability reasons.
Is consumer discontinuation the end of GLP-1?
Despite discontinuation seeming common, reinitiation also occurs among all types of consumers. JAMA Network Open’s published study also discovered that 47.3% of diabetic patients and 36.3% of patients without diabetes re-initiated GLP-1 use within one year. As taking the medicine promotes weight loss, ceasing consumption can lead to weight gain, prompting ex-users to restart treatment. GLP-1 therapy requires a long-term commitment to produce consistent results, and, consequently, many users may struggle to restart the course regardless of unwanted weight gain.
Exhibit 1: GLP-1 UK usage could reach 13% by 2027 with the first oral pill.
Source: iStock.com/aprott
What should investors be mindful of?
Pharmaceutical market returns are continually improving after more than a decade of decline, largely driven by GLP-1 medicines. Aligning with such growth, scientists have been able to identify the side effects of GLP-1s as an opportunity to create alternative treatments for conditions such as obstructive sleep apnoea, chronic kidney disease and heart failure.
Investors should bear in mind that while this will further expand the market for weight loss medications, other medical industries will pay the price. GLP-1s are changing the way that healthcare providers are thinking, beyond traditional surgical approaches, such as gastric bypass.
GLP-1 medications and the lifestyle that accompanies the course of treatment has created an area of concern in the fast-food and restaurant industries. However, it is important for investors to realise that if these establishments can understand their audiences and adapt menus accordingly, for example, incorporating smaller portions and high protein options, sales are not likely to drop dramatically.
Investors must also be mindful of discontinuation statistics and understand that this current reallocation of consumer spending may not be permanent for all users, hence the eating-out industry is not likely to suffer considerably. Grocery firms find themselves in a similar situation in terms of the need to adapt to new consumer demands.
Edison Insight
GLP-1s have popularised dietary habits that have considerably influenced the market for nutrition, changing the way that weight loss is achieved and executed by the population. Having arguably created a significant wellness trend, it is safe to assume that GLP-1 is here to stay. The market can expect prescription medicines to continually be developed and refined to be more effective than the last, as well as nutritionally concerned companies to perpetually advance their GLP-1 user targeted product lines to meet evolving consumer demand. Investors should keep in mind the probability of discontinuation and the inevitable plateau of growth that accompanies any market blockbuster but not discount the profitability that lies within contemporary nutritional patterns and their tailored product solutions.
