Edison has once again analysed pre-production junior miners to determine what their valuations tell the industry about investors’ appetites for exploration assets.
In sharp contrast to previous years, there is definite evidence that investors are giving precedence to lower confidence inferred gold resources over measured ones – presumably reflecting a desire to identify new deposits. This is also true for vanadium, lithium and iron ore deposits. By contrast, uranium appears to represent the other end of the spectrum, with almost all value in uranium deposits existing within the measured category of resources.
While the value of a number of in-situ resources demonstrated attractive gearing to their associated refined metals prices over the past seven years, the industry has been characterised by a distinct lack of the beta expected of junior mining companies. As a consequence, many resources are cheap relative to history, with gold resources arguably cheaper than at any time since at least July 2010 and nowhere near the levels of 2010–12. At the same time, almost all metals demonstrate investors’ willingness to pay premium prices for small deposits with blue-sky exploration potential (with the notable exception of bauxite, where investors instead seem happy to pay a size premium).
Further along the Lassonde curve, discount rates applied to projects by consultants have devolved down to very nearly just two: 5% (predominantly applied to precious metals) and 8% (applied to almost everything else). In contrast to these rates, Edison has calculated the definitive range of discount rates that the market implicitly applies to development projects (Exhibit 16). We have reconciled these with EV/NPV (sometimes called P/NAV) multiples, shown in Exhibit 19. Among other things, the analysis demonstrates the value contraction that occurs as companies progress their projects from PEA to PFS. In contrast to prior years however, there is almost no discernible relationship between companies’ valuations and either the grade, jurisdiction, size or internal rate of return (IRR) of their projects, leading us to speculate that the defining factor in determining company valuations is now the quality (or perceived quality) of management. This is in sharp contrast to the past, when we estimate that as much as 97% of a company’s valuation could be determined by its project’s grade, jurisdiction, size and IRR. Of interest to those looking to enter the market, we now estimate the ‘average’ project has an IRR of 39.7% and a net present value (NPV) of US$1,165.0m (79.6% higher than in 2018). However, in general, investors will now value a company with such a project at a much smaller multiple of NPV than they did previously. Finally, we investigate what characterises a ‘typical’ gold deposit in 2026.
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Abrasilver Resource
Adelong Gold
Aftermath Silver
Alaska Energy Metals Corp
Alaska Silver
Allegiant Gold
Alligator Energy
Altamira Gold Corp
American Lithium Corp
Anfield Energy
Anglesey Mining
Apollo Silver
Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp
Argent Minerals
Argenta Silver
Augusta Gold Corp
Ausgold
Australian Silica Quartz Group
Australian Vanadium
Avalon Advanced Materials
Bannerman Energy
Banyan Gold Corp
Barton Gold Holdings
Beowulf Mining
Berkeley Energia
Bezant Resources
Big Ridge Gold Corp
Black Dragon Gold Corp
Black Iron
Blue Sky Uranium Corp
Blue Star Gold Corp
BonTerra Resources
Brightstar Resources
Brockman Mining
Cadence Minerals
Canada Nickel Company
Canadian Gold Corp
Canadian North Resources
Canyon Resources
Capitan Silver
Centaurus Metals
Century Global Commodities Corp
Century Lithium Corp
Cerro de Pasco Resources
Chesapeake Gold Corp
Class 1 Nickel and Technologies
Copper Fox Metals
Copper Giant Resources Corp
Cora Gold
Core Nickel Corp
CuFe
CZR Resources
Dateline Resources
Deep Yellow
Defiance Silver
Desert Gold Ventures
DFR Gold
District Metals Corp
Dynasty Gold Corp
Elevate Uranium
Energy Metals
Energy Transition Minerals
Engineer Gold Mines
Engold Mines
Euro Sun Mining
European Lithium
European Metals Holdings
Excellon Resources
Faraday Copper Corp
First Mining Gold Corp
Forsys Metals Corp
FPX Nickel Corp
Freegold Ventures
Freeman Gold Corp
Frontier Lithium
Fury Gold Mines
G2 Goldfields
Galantas Gold Corp
Galleon Gold Corp
Giga Metals Corp
Gold Springs Resource Corp
Gold Terra Resource Corp
GoldMining
Goldquest Mining Corp
Gorilla Gold Mines
Goviex Uranium
GR Silver Mining
Granada Gold Mine
GT Resources
Hawsons Iron
Highland Copper Company
Homeland Nickel
Horizon Gold
Independence Gold Corp
International Tower Hill Mines
Iron Road
Isoenergy
KEFI Gold and Copper
Klondike Gold Corp
Kodiak Copper Corp
Kootenay Silver
Labrador Iron Mines Holdings
Lahontan Gold Corp
Landore Resources
Laramide Resources
Lavras Gold Corp
Legacy Iron Ore
Liberty Gold Corp
Lifezone Metals
Lincoln Gold Mining
Lithium Americas Corp
Lithium Ionic Corp
Lode Gold Resources
Loncor Gold
Macarthur Minerals
Magnetite Mines
Maple Gold Mines
Marimaca Copper Corp
Marvel Gold
Mayfair Gold Corp
Meridian Mining UK Societas
Mexican Gold Mining Corp
Minco Silver
Mirasol Resources
Nevada King Gold Corp
Nevada Lithium Resources
New Found Gold Corp
New Pacific Metals
Newcore Gold
Nexgen Energy
NeXGold Mining Corp
NorthX Nickel Corp
NovaGold Resources
Nuclear Fuels
Oceanic Iron Ore Corp
Odyssey Gold
Omai Gold Mines Corp
Outcrop Silver & Gold
Panoro Minerals
Patriot Battery Metals
Phenom Resources Corp
Power Metal Resources
Power Metallic Mines
Premier American Uranium
Prime Mining
Probe Gold
Prodigy Gold
Pure Energy Minerals
Quartzstone
Radius Gold
Rock Tech Lithium
Sama Resources
Seabridge Gold
Silver Mines
Silver One Resources
Silver Predator
Silver Storm Mining
Silver Tiger Metals
Silver Viper Minerals
Silver47 Exploration
Siren Gold
Sitka Gold Corp
Snow Lake Resources
SolGold
Southern Silver Exploration
Spanish Mountain Gold
SPC Nickel Corp
STLLR Gold
Strategic Resources
Strike Resources
Summa Silver
Sunstone Metals
Surge Battery Metals
Talon Metals Corp
Tartisan Nickel Corp
Temas Resources Corp
Tesoro Gold
THEMAC Resources Group
Thesis Gold
Trilogy Metals
TriStar Gold
Triumph Gold Corp
True North Copper
Tudor Gold Corp
Turaco Gold
Unigold
VBX
Velox Energy Materials
Venus Metals Corporation
Vista Gold Corp
Viva Gold Corp
Vizsla Silver
Warriedar Resources
West Wits Mining
Western Copper and Gold Corp
WIA Gold
Xtra Gold Resources Corp
XAU Resources
Zanaga Iron Ore Company
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