Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP5.15
▲ −10.10 (−1.92%)
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GBP80,861m
Research: Energy & Resources
bp reported Q126 underlying replacement cost (RC) profit of $3.2bn (Q125: $1.4bn), a beat versus company consensus of $2.7bn. This was driven by higher customers & products earnings, exceptional oil trading and a lower underlying effective tax rate of 32%. Operating cash flow was flat year-on-year but fell quarter-on-quarter to $2.9bn (Q425: $7.6bn) due to a $6.0bn working capital increase driven primarily by seasonal inventory builds and pricing. Net debt rose to $25.3bn from $22.2bn at FY25.
Customers & products delivered underlying RC PBIT of $3.2bn (Q425: $1.3bn), making it the main driver of the group result. Products was the standout area, benefiting from higher throughput and refining margins and an exceptional oil trading contribution. Refining availability was 96.3%, up from 96.0% in Q425 and above bp’s 96% target for the fifth consecutive quarter, while throughput at more than 1.5m bbl/d was the highest quarterly figure in over four years. Oil production & operations RC PBIT of $2.0bn was flat quarter-on-quarter. Upstream production of 2.3m bbl/d was broadly flat, with growth in the Gulf of America and bpx Energy offsetting Middle East disruption and portfolio effects. Gas & low carbon energy delivered $1.3bn RC PBIT (Q425: $1.4bn), with higher production offset by lower realisations.
bp’s priority is a resilient dividend, expected to grow by at least 4% per year. The dividend of 8.320c/share was up 4% y-o-y and flat versus Q425. New CEO Meg O’Neill aims to make bp a simpler, stronger, more valuable company by unlocking growth and improving returns. Her immediate priority is to accelerate progress with a tight focus on operational performance and capital discipline. Capex was $3.3bn in Q1 (FY26 guidance remains $13.0–13.5bn). bp reiterated its target of $14–18bn net debt by end-2027 supported by c $9–10bn of divestment in FY26, weighted to H2, including c $6bn from Castrol. The company now plans to reduce corporate hybrid bond financing by c $4.3bn to c $9bn by end-2027, subject to market conditions. The agreed Gelsenkirchen refinery sale is expected to lift bp’s structural cost-reduction target by $1bn to $6.5–7.5bn by 2027.
bp expects Q226 upstream production to be lower quarter-on-quarter, reflecting seasonal maintenance and continued Middle East disruption. For FY26, bp expects reported upstream production to be lower due to the Middle East disruption, while underlying upstream production is expected to be broadly flat versus 2025. Guidance for all other metrics remains unchanged.
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Consensus estimates |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year end | EBITDA ($m) | Net income ($m) | EPS (¢) | DPS (¢) | P/E (x) | EV/EBITDA (x) | Yield (%) |
| 12/25 | 37,615.0 | 7,485.0 | 48.00 | 32.64 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| 12/26e | 46,025.0 | 14,142.0 | 86.00 | 34.00 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
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Research: Investment Companies
Utilico Emerging Markets Trust’s (UEM’s) portfolio is relatively defensive, with a beta of c 0.8, given the nature of its investments in infrastructure and utility assets. Hence, its managers, Charles Jillings and Jacqueline Broers at ICM, are encouraged that the trust has broadly kept up with a very strong MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the last 12 months, with a lower volatility of returns. The managers continue to have a high level of conviction in the positive prospects for the trust’s investee companies, which are selected via a diligent bottom-up investment process. UEM has also delivered very commendable results over the long term. Since launch in July 2005 until 31 March 2026, the trust generated a 9.6% annualised NAV total return. UEM has a progressive dividend policy, a fully covered annual distribution and an above-market dividend yield.