bp — Strong Q1, new CEO to accelerate progress

bp (LSE: BP.)

Last close As at 05/08/2026

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Research: Energy & Resources

bp — Strong Q1, new CEO to accelerate progress

bp reported Q126 underlying replacement cost (RC) profit of $3.2bn (Q125: $1.4bn), a beat versus company consensus of $2.7bn. This was driven by higher customers & products earnings, exceptional oil trading and a lower underlying effective tax rate of 32%. Operating cash flow was flat year-on-year but fell quarter-on-quarter to $2.9bn (Q425: $7.6bn) due to a $6.0bn working capital increase driven primarily by seasonal inventory builds and pricing. Net debt rose to $25.3bn from $22.2bn at FY25.

Written by

Harry Kilby

Analyst

Energy and resources

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28 April 2026

Price 572.40p
Market cap £89,908m
Price Performance
Share details
Code BP
Listing LSE

Shares in issue

15,707.2m

Net cash/(debt) at Q126

$(25,309.0)m

Business description

bp is a major global integrated energy company, headquartered in London. Its operations span the energy value chain, with upstream (oil and gas exploration and production, trading, biogas), downstream (refining, biofuels, fuels retail and convenience) and low-carbon energy assets. In 2025, bp announced a strategic pivot back towards its core oil and gas operations.

Bull points

  • Increased focus on highest-returning investment opportunities and significant cost reduction production.
  • Clear capital allocation strategy.
  • Actively pursuing strategic asset sales and debt reduction.

Bear points

  • Greater debt weighting compared to peers.
  • Potential sector-wide exposure to carbon regulations.
  • Commodity price and demand volatility (both upside and downside).

Analysts

Harry Kilby
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Jonathan Day
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

bp is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Downstream drives earnings, upstream broadly stable

Customers & products delivered underlying RC PBIT of $3.2bn (Q425: $1.3bn), making it the main driver of the group result. Products was the standout area, benefiting from higher throughput and refining margins and an exceptional oil trading contribution. Refining availability was 96.3%, up from 96.0% in Q425 and above bp’s 96% target for the fifth consecutive quarter, while throughput at more than 1.5m bbl/d was the highest quarterly figure in over four years. Oil production & operations RC PBIT of $2.0bn was flat quarter-on-quarter. Upstream production of 2.3m bbl/d was broadly flat, with growth in the Gulf of America and bpx Energy offsetting Middle East disruption and portfolio effects. Gas & low carbon energy delivered $1.3bn RC PBIT (Q425: $1.4bn), with higher production offset by lower realisations.

Capital allocation and new CEO comments

bp’s priority is a resilient dividend, expected to grow by at least 4% per year. The dividend of 8.320c/share was up 4% y-o-y and flat versus Q425. New CEO Meg O’Neill aims to make bp a simpler, stronger, more valuable company by unlocking growth and improving returns. Her immediate priority is to accelerate progress with a tight focus on operational performance and capital discipline. Capex was $3.3bn in Q1 (FY26 guidance remains $13.0–13.5bn). bp reiterated its target of $14–18bn net debt by end-2027 supported by c $9–10bn of divestment in FY26, weighted to H2, including c $6bn from Castrol. The company now plans to reduce corporate hybrid bond financing by c $4.3bn to c $9bn by end-2027, subject to market conditions. The agreed Gelsenkirchen refinery sale is expected to lift bp’s structural cost-reduction target by $1bn to $6.5–7.5bn by 2027.

Guidance now incorporates Middle East disruption

bp expects Q226 upstream production to be lower quarter-on-quarter, reflecting seasonal maintenance and continued Middle East disruption. For FY26, bp expects reported upstream production to be lower due to the Middle East disruption, while underlying upstream production is expected to be broadly flat versus 2025. Guidance for all other metrics remains unchanged.

Source: Company data, LSEG Data & Analytics. Note: EPS and net income are adjusted. Realisation and marker prices for FY26: Brent oil: $81.13/bbl; Henry Hub gas: $5.05/mmBtu.

Consensus estimates

Year end EBITDA ($m) Net income ($m) EPS (¢) DPS (¢) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Yield (%)
12/25 37,615.0 7,485.0 48.00 32.64 16.1 3.9 4.2
12/26e 46,025.0 14,142.0 86.00 34.00 9.0 3.2 4.4

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