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Research: Energy & Resources
bp reported Q425 underlying replacement cost (RC) profit of $1.5bn (Q325: $2.2bn), broadly in line with expectations. Operating cash flow was $7.6bn, including a working capital release of $0.9bn. Net debt fell to $22.2bn from $26.1bn, driven by divestment proceeds of $3.6bn. The dividend was maintained at 8.32c/share. Attributable profit was a loss of $3.4bn, including previously announced post-tax impairments of $4bn, primarily in transition businesses. bp has suspended its buyback to prioritise strengthening its balance sheet, with the target for net debt remaining $14–18bn by end 2027.
Gas and low carbon energy delivered underlying RC profit before interest and tax of $1.4bn (Q3: $1.5bn), reflecting lower realisations, with gas marketing and trading described as average. Oil production and operations delivered $2.0bn (Q3: $2.3bn), reflecting lower realisations, production mix and a lower share of net income of equity-accounted entities, partly offset by lower exploration write-offs. Customers and products delivered $1.3bn (Q3: $1.7bn). In customers, bp cited seasonally lower volumes and weaker midstream performance. In products, stronger realised refining margins were offset by lower throughputs from turnaround activity and reduced capacity following an outage at bp’s Whiting Refinery.
The board suspended share buybacks and retired its guidance for shareholder distributions (c 30–40% of operating cash flow), instead allocating excess cash to strengthen the balance sheet (reiterating its net debt target of $14–18bn by end 2027). 2026 capex is guided at $13–13.5bn (lower end of current range of $13–15bn). bp guided to divestment and other proceeds of $9–10bn in 2026 (including c $6bn from Castrol). bp has achieved $2.8bn in structural cost reductions to date (60% of original target) and revised its end-2027 target from $4–5bn to $5.5–6.5bn (reflecting the Castrol divestment). bp expects Q126 upstream production and capex to be broadly flat versus Q4, with seasonally lower customer volumes and weaker refining margins partly offset by reduced refinery turnaround activity.
Operational performance was strong in 2025, with record bp-operated upstream plant reliability of 96.1% and record refining availability of 96.3%. bp also started up seven major projects during the year, five ahead of schedule. The reserves replacement ratio was 90% and management outlined its initial estimate for the Bumerangue discovery of c 8bn barrels of liquids in place (although this is still uncertain given the stage of development).
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Consensus estimates |
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| Year end | EBITDA ($m) | PBT ($m) | EPS (¢) | DPS (¢) | EV/EBITDA (x) | P/E (x) | Yield (%) |
| 12/25 | 37,615.0 | 7,746.0 | 48.00 | 32.64 | 3.1 | 12.8 | 5.3 |
| 12/26e | 34,507.0 | 12,998.0 | 46.00 | 34.00 | 3.4 | 13.3 | 5.6 |
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Research: Metals & Mining
Alkane’s Q226 quarterly activities report revealed record quarterly gold production of 43,663oz AuE (174,652oz pa annualised cf FY26 guidance of 160–175koz) at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,739oz AuE (cf FY26 guidance of A$2,600–2,900/oz), generating A$133m in aggregate site operating cash flows (but could have been A$151m except for the timing of a final payment in January for a shipment of concentrate made in December) to leave the company with cash, bullion and listed investments as at 31 December of A$246m after A$17m in corporate income tax payments. At the mine level, Tomingley had an excellent quarter and produced 1,925oz Au (9.5%) above our prior estimate, while Costerfield’s grade returned to over 10g/t and Björkdal’s to over 1.00g/t. As a result – and in deference to the continued strength in the gold price – we have increased our FY26 EPS estimate by 105.0% and our FY27 estimate by 68.6%.