Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR13.29
▲ −0.16 (−1.15%)
Market capitalisation
EUR10,723m
Research: Consumer
OPAP enjoyed improved momentum in Q224 driven by the ongoing innovation of its core products in both retail and online, and the anticipated boost from the UEFA European Football Championship 2024. Interestingly, management highlighted that the new active customers it gained for the event have spent money in other non-sports betting verticals, and a high proportion have been retained, having enjoyed the increased functionality of its games. OPAP also announced the award of the exclusive licence (versus the prior bilateral and relatively informal agreement) to run the retail operations of numerical games and lotteries in Cyprus for 15 years, which represented c 4% of group gross gaming revenue (GGR) in FY23.
OPAP |
Improved momentum in Q224 |
Q224 results |
Travel and leisure |
6 September 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
OPAP is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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OPAP enjoyed improved momentum in Q224 driven by the ongoing innovation of its core products in both retail and online, and the anticipated boost from the UEFA European Football Championship 2024. Interestingly, management highlighted that the new active customers it gained for the event have spent money in other non-sports betting verticals, and a high proportion have been retained, having enjoyed the increased functionality of its games. OPAP also announced the award of the exclusive licence (versus the prior bilateral and relatively informal agreement) to run the retail operations of numerical games and lotteries in Cyprus for 15 years, which represented c 4% of group gross gaming revenue (GGR) in FY23.
Year end |
GGR* (€m) |
EBITDA** |
EPS** |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
1,939 |
733 |
1.27 |
1.45 |
12.6 |
9.1 |
12/23 |
2,088 |
745 |
1.25 |
1.80 |
12.8 |
11.3 |
12/24e |
2,185 |
763 |
1.28 |
1.28 |
12.5 |
8.0 |
12/25e |
2,248 |
782 |
1.32 |
1.32 |
12.2 |
8.2 |
Note: *GGR = gross gaming revenue. **EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Better growth in Q224
OPAP’s year-on-year revenue growth picked up to c 7% in Q224 from c 4% in Q124, with more significant growth from online activities (c 34%), while retail declined marginally (-1%). The company has invested heavily in marketing and staff through H124 to support future revenue growth (ie the launch of Eurojackpot in Q124) and for the UEFA Euro 2024 in Q224. While Q224’s EBITDA margin declined by c 130bp to 34.4%, to give 34.5% for H124, the higher revenue growth provided 3% EBITDA growth, taking H124’s absolute profit to broadly flat versus H123. The interim dividend was €0.6/share and management confirmed its full year dividend payout policy. The period end net debt position increased to c €229m (Q124: €136m) as the higher absolute profit and better free cash generation in Q224 funded the dividend and continued share buyback.
Confident about FY24 guidance
Management has confirmed that it is on track to deliver its 2024 outlook. Our forecasts, which are towards the middle of the guidance, imply a slowdown in revenue growth to c 4% from the c 6% delivered in H124, which is to be expected following the boost provided by the football. Our EBITDA estimate suggests a slightly higher H2 margin (35.3%), consistent with management’s expectation that marketing spend will normalise through the rest of the year and the new revenues following earlier spend come through. Our underlying estimates are unchanged but we adjust for the award of the licence in Cyprus.
Valuation: Attractive dividend yield
OPAP’s FY24e P/E multiple of 12.5x remains at a discount to the peer median (16.7x) and offers a superior dividend yield of 8% versus the peer median of 2.8%.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
||
31-December |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,939 |
2,088 |
2,185 |
2,248 |
2,311 |
NGR |
|
|
1,333 |
1,436 |
1,503 |
1,547 |
1,590 |
Cost of Sales |
(1,083) |
(1,190) |
(1,249) |
(1,284) |
(1,318) |
||
Gross Profit |
856 |
898 |
936 |
964 |
992 |
||
Other Income |
230 |
233 |
242 |
244 |
245 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
733 |
745 |
763 |
782 |
802 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
606 |
614 |
627 |
647 |
666 |
Impairments |
(20) |
(6) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
170 |
(15) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
||
Reported operating profit |
753 |
590 |
625 |
645 |
664 |
||
Net Interest |
(40) |
(20) |
7 |
(1) |
(1) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
581 |
593 |
634 |
646 |
666 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
728 |
570 |
632 |
644 |
664 |
Reported tax |
(127) |
(156) |
(155) |
(158) |
(163) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
453 |
463 |
479 |
487 |
502 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
601 |
414 |
477 |
486 |
501 |
||
Minority interests |
(4) |
(6) |
(12) |
(13) |
(14) |
||
Net income (normalised) |
449 |
457 |
467 |
475 |
489 |
||
Net income (reported) |
597 |
408 |
465 |
473 |
487 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
354 |
365 |
364 |
361 |
361 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
126.70 |
125.33 |
128.11 |
131.68 |
135.62 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
126.70 |
125.33 |
128.11 |
131.68 |
135.62 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
1.68 |
1.12 |
1.28 |
1.31 |
1.35 |
Dividend (€) |
1.45 |
1.80 |
1.28 |
1.32 |
1.36 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
26.0 |
7.7 |
4.6 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
44.2 |
43.0 |
42.8 |
42.9 |
42.9 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
37.8 |
35.7 |
34.9 |
34.8 |
34.7 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
31.2 |
29.4 |
28.7 |
28.8 |
28.8 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
1,553 |
1,420 |
1,380 |
1,271 |
1,163 |
Intangible Assets |
1,364 |
1,273 |
1,253 |
1,165 |
1,077 |
||
Tangible Assets |
89 |
70 |
50 |
30 |
9 |
||
Investments & other |
100 |
77 |
77 |
77 |
77 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
1,018 |
680 |
485 |
340 |
196 |
Stocks |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
||
Debtors |
102 |
104 |
109 |
112 |
115 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
724 |
487 |
287 |
139 |
(8) |
||
Other |
186 |
83 |
83 |
83 |
83 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(809) |
(578) |
(621) |
(628) |
(635) |
Creditors |
(182) |
(202) |
(240) |
(247) |
(254) |
||
Tax and social security |
(117) |
(119) |
(119) |
(119) |
(119) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(289) |
(80) |
(80) |
(80) |
(80) |
||
Other |
(220) |
(177) |
(181) |
(181) |
(181) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(676) |
(735) |
(830) |
(629) |
(435) |
Long term borrowings |
(546) |
(606) |
(596) |
(336) |
(76) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(130) |
(129) |
(234) |
(293) |
(359) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
1,086 |
787 |
414 |
354 |
289 |
Minority interests |
(33) |
(34) |
(35) |
(36) |
(37) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
1,054 |
753 |
379 |
318 |
252 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
740 |
747 |
764 |
784 |
804 |
||
Working capital |
41 |
(17) |
34 |
4 |
4 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(13) |
(27) |
(14) |
(2) |
(2) |
||
Tax |
(80) |
(151) |
(155) |
(158) |
(163) |
||
net Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
687 |
552 |
629 |
628 |
643 |
Net interest |
(27) |
(14) |
7 |
(1) |
(1) |
||
Capex |
(23) |
(28) |
(29) |
(29) |
(29) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(32) |
109 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Equity financing |
(2) |
(29) |
(120) |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(141) |
(515) |
(666) |
(474) |
(487) |
||
Net new borrowings |
(262) |
(130) |
0 |
(250) |
(250) |
||
Other |
(335) |
(183) |
(21) |
(22) |
(23) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(136) |
(237) |
(200) |
(148) |
(147) |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
860 |
724 |
487 |
287 |
139 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
724 |
487 |
287 |
139 |
(8) |
Closing net debt/(cash) incl IFRS 16, excl investments |
|
111 |
199 |
389 |
278 |
165 |
|
Source: OPAP accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
EML Payments’ FY24 results were the first to show the full impact of the liquidation of PFS Card Services Ireland Limited (PCSIL). Continuing operations, which exclude PCSIL, saw gross debit volume (GDV) growth of 18%, revenue growth of 18% and underlying EBITDA growth of 34%. The sale of Sentenial has since completed with proceeds of A$53.4m, moving EML to a net cash position. Management is now focused on moving back to a growth mindset in the remaining business and optimising the cost base post the disposals. Shifting away from the medium-term targets given in February, management expects to disclose more at its AGM in November. We have reduced our FY25 forecasts to reflect the more modest EBITDA guidance and to remove the Sentenial business.