Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR13.29
▲ −0.16 (−1.15%)
Market capitalisation
EUR10,848m
Research: Consumer
OPAP delivered good revenue growth in Q124 while profitability declined, mainly due to the upfront investment to support a major new product launch, which should boost revenue as the year progresses and provide better leverage on the higher cost base. The broad message is of strong online growth with resilience in its land-based activities, which gives management confidence to reiterate its guidance for the year.
OPAP |
Steady progress towards FY24 guidance |
Q124 results |
Travel and leisure |
4 June 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
OPAP is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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OPAP delivered good revenue growth in Q124 while profitability declined, mainly due to the upfront investment to support a major new product launch, which should boost revenue as the year progresses and provide better leverage on the higher cost base. The broad message is of strong online growth with resilience in its land-based activities, which gives management confidence to reiterate its guidance for the year.
Year end |
GGR* (€m) |
EBITDA** |
EPS** |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
1,939 |
733 |
1.27 |
1.45 |
11.7 |
9.7 |
12/23 |
2,088 |
745 |
1.25 |
1.80 |
11.9 |
12.1 |
12/24e |
2,185 |
763 |
1.26 |
1.26 |
11.8 |
8.5 |
12/25e |
2,248 |
782 |
1.33 |
1.33 |
11.2 |
8.9 |
Note: *GGR, gross gaming revenue. **EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Good revenue growth against tough comparative
Against a very strong Q123 comparative, OPAP’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) grew by c 4% y-o-y to €550m, with growth in four revenue streams partially offset by declines in two revenue streams, Instant and Passives and Online Betting, which both demonstrated strong growth in Q123. The lower reported EBITDA of €190m (Q123: €196m) resulted from a flat gross margin versus the prior year and deleveraging (ie increased relative to GGR) of the three major operating cost lines: marketing (to support the launch of Eurojackpot); payroll (for cost-of-living increases and redundancy costs related to a business cessation); and other operating expenses (general investment to support growth). Free cash generation was negatively affected versus Q123 by the lower profitability, higher cash tax payments and working capital outflows. The latter can be variable between the quarters. The free cash generation helped to fund the ongoing share buyback, while reducing the net debt position to €136m (€199m at end-FY23).
On track to deliver FY24 guidance
While OPAP’s Q124 profitability was marginally lower than the comparative period, management is confident the company is on track to deliver the existing FY24 guidance. The reported Q124 results, which represent c 25% of our FY24 estimates for GGR and EBITDA, are consistent with the quarterly trends seen in FY23, suggesting the confidence is well founded, with comparatives easing as the year progresses, the occurrence of major sporting events including the UEFA European Football Championship and the expected ongoing boost from the launch of Eurojackpot. Our FY24 forecasts, which are towards the middle of the guided range, are unchanged.
Valuation: Discount to peers
OPAP continues to trade at a discount to its European peers (20% using EV/EBIT multiples, 13% using P/E multiples) for FY24, and it offers a more attractive dividend yield of 8.5% (peer average 2.8%).
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
||
31-December |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
ISA |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,939 |
2,088 |
2,185 |
2,248 |
2,311 |
NGR |
|
|
1,333 |
1,436 |
1,503 |
1,547 |
1,590 |
Cost of Sales |
(1,083) |
(1,190) |
(1,249) |
(1,284) |
(1,318) |
||
Gross Profit |
856 |
898 |
936 |
964 |
992 |
||
Other Income |
230 |
233 |
242 |
244 |
245 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
733 |
745 |
763 |
782 |
802 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
606 |
614 |
631 |
651 |
670 |
Impairments |
(20) |
(6) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
170 |
(15) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
||
Reported operating profit |
753 |
590 |
629 |
649 |
668 |
||
Net Interest |
(40) |
(20) |
(5) |
(1) |
(1) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
581 |
593 |
626 |
650 |
670 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
728 |
570 |
624 |
648 |
668 |
Reported tax |
(127) |
(156) |
(153) |
(159) |
(164) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
453 |
463 |
473 |
490 |
506 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
601 |
414 |
471 |
489 |
504 |
||
Minority interests |
(4) |
(6) |
(12) |
(13) |
(14) |
||
Net income (normalised) |
449 |
457 |
461 |
478 |
492 |
||
Net income (reported) |
597 |
408 |
459 |
476 |
490 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
354 |
365 |
364 |
361 |
361 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
126.70 |
125.33 |
126.45 |
132.51 |
136.46 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
126.70 |
125.33 |
126.45 |
132.51 |
136.46 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
1.68 |
1.12 |
1.26 |
1.32 |
1.36 |
Dividend (€) |
1.45 |
1.80 |
1.26 |
1.33 |
1.36 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
26.0 |
7.7 |
4.6 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
44.2 |
43.0 |
42.8 |
42.9 |
42.9 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
37.8 |
35.7 |
34.9 |
34.8 |
34.7 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
31.2 |
29.4 |
28.9 |
28.9 |
29.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
1,553 |
1,420 |
1,312 |
1,203 |
1,095 |
Intangible Assets |
1,364 |
1,273 |
1,185 |
1,096 |
1,008 |
||
Tangible Assets |
89 |
70 |
50 |
30 |
10 |
||
Investments & other |
100 |
77 |
77 |
77 |
77 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
1,018 |
680 |
491 |
355 |
211 |
Stocks |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
||
Debtors |
102 |
104 |
109 |
112 |
115 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
724 |
487 |
293 |
154 |
7 |
||
Other |
186 |
83 |
83 |
83 |
83 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(809) |
(578) |
(617) |
(624) |
(631) |
Creditors |
(182) |
(202) |
(240) |
(247) |
(254) |
||
Tax and social security |
(117) |
(119) |
(119) |
(119) |
(119) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(289) |
(80) |
(80) |
(80) |
(80) |
||
Other |
(220) |
(177) |
(177) |
(177) |
(177) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(676) |
(735) |
(778) |
(577) |
(383) |
Long term borrowings |
(546) |
(606) |
(596) |
(336) |
(76) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(130) |
(129) |
(182) |
(241) |
(307) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
1,086 |
787 |
408 |
357 |
292 |
Minority interests |
(33) |
(34) |
(35) |
(36) |
(37) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
1,054 |
753 |
373 |
321 |
255 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
740 |
747 |
764 |
784 |
804 |
||
Working capital |
41 |
(17) |
34 |
4 |
4 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(13) |
(27) |
(2) |
(2) |
(2) |
||
Tax |
(80) |
(151) |
(153) |
(159) |
(164) |
||
net Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
687 |
552 |
643 |
627 |
642 |
Net interest |
(27) |
(14) |
(5) |
(1) |
(1) |
||
Capex |
(23) |
(28) |
(25) |
(25) |
(25) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(32) |
109 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Equity financing |
(2) |
(29) |
(120) |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(141) |
(515) |
(666) |
(468) |
(490) |
||
Net new borrowings |
(262) |
(130) |
0 |
(250) |
(250) |
||
Other |
(335) |
(183) |
(21) |
(22) |
(23) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(136) |
(237) |
(194) |
(139) |
(147) |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
860 |
724 |
487 |
293 |
154 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
724 |
487 |
293 |
154 |
7 |
Closing net debt/(cash) incl IFRS 16, excl investments |
|
|
111 |
199 |
383 |
262 |
150 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
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