“Edison’s accessible and high-quality research gives us the opportunity to communicate an independent perspective of Tyman to a wide variety of potential stakeholders.”
Currency in EUR
Last close As at 09/06/2023
EUR16.00
▲ 0.25 (1.59%)
Market capitalisation
EUR5,723m
OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant and passives, VLTs and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013. Allwyn has a 49.8% stake and significant board representation.
The Hellenic Gaming Commission estimates the total Greek gaming market’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) amounted to €1.86bn in 2021, growth of c 15% in the year as it recovered from the severe drop of 27% in FY20 due to the initial COVID-19 outbreak and its effect on retail businesses. On an absolute basis, 2021’s GGR was equivalent to c 83% of the pre COVID-19 level of €2.23bn.
Director, Consumer
Jan Karas
CEO
Pavel Mucha
CFO
Forecast net debt (€m)
729.5
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
71
| % | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1.9 | 3.8 | 9.7 |
| Relative | (8.6) | (2.8) | (18.4) |
| 52 week high/low | €16.4/€12.0 |
OPAP’s FY22 results benefitted from the ongoing retail recovery post COVID-19, and a still-growing contribution from online (despite the tough comparative) as the enhanced offering attracts more customers. FY22 revenue was c 5% below our estimate, but EBITDA was c 2% above guidance. This is noteworthy as EBITDA was towards the top end of guidance from the start of 2022, despite revenue being more than 11% below initial guidance. Management’s guidance for FY23 is for 6–10% y-o-y revenue growth and EBITDA 1–3%. Guidance understates underlying EBITDA growth (we estimate 3–5%) as FY22 included associate income from Betano, which has been sold.
| Y/E Dec | Revenue (€m) | EBITDA (€m) | PBT (€m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021A | 1538.8 | 551.2 | 364.6 | 82.28 | 19.1 | 9.8 |
| 2022A | 1939.0 | 722.6 | 565.9 | 122.22 | 12.9 | 7.8 |
| 2023E | 2063.5 | 742.8 | 591.3 | 123.92 | 12.7 | 7.7 |
| 2024E | 2110.2 | 746.8 | 600.4 | 126.01 | 12.5 | 7.6 |
Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.
