Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Market capitalisation
GBP1,977m
Research: Consumer
Greggs’ H124 results demonstrate the ongoing benefits of its multiple levers to drive revenue growth as well as a pleasant surprise on operating margin. With a relatively normal environment for input cost inflation, management is optimistic about the outlook for the year. We have marginally increased our profit estimates, which has also fed through to an increase in our valuation.
Greggs |
Confident about FY24 outlook |
H124 results |
Retail |
31 July 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Greggs’ H124 results demonstrate the ongoing benefits of its multiple levers to drive revenue growth as well as a pleasant surprise on operating margin. With a relatively normal environment for input cost inflation, management is optimistic about the outlook for the year. We have marginally increased our profit estimates, which has also fed through to an increase in our valuation.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
1,512.8 |
148.3 |
117.5 |
59.0 |
26.2 |
1.9 |
12/23 |
1,809.6 |
167.7 |
123.8 |
102.0 |
24.9 |
3.3 |
12/24e |
2,013.6 |
183.9 |
131.9 |
65.9 |
23.4 |
2.1 |
12/25e |
2,230.9 |
202.8 |
145.5 |
72.7 |
21.2 |
2.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Strong compound growth
Greggs’ H124 year-on-year revenue growth of c 14% continues to look impressive, compounding H123’s c 22% growth driven by a c 6% increase in the average number of shops and underlying growth from a combination of price increases and volume. There is a natural fade in revenue growth versus the periods through FY23 as the required high price increases from previously elevated input cost inflation fall away. The results also show the first year-on-year improvement in operating margin since H221 to 7.9% (H123: 7.7%). It benefited from some unexpected deflation in food and packaging, which buoyed the gross margin, with some minor offset for higher IT spend. As a result, underlying PBT increased by c 16%, enabling a 19% increase in the interim dividend to 19p/share. It is well understood that Greggs is running with a high net cash position given the peak of capital investment in FY24.
Confident on FY24 outlook
The strong start to the year, optimism about ongoing growth from own initiatives and an unchanged outlook for underlying cost inflation leads management to indicate that expectations for the full year outcome are unchanged. We have tweaked up our PBT estimates for FY24–26 by c £1m, or less than 1%, to take account of more favourable gross margin dynamics due to food deflation that is partially offset by higher investment in technology.
Valuation: Modest increase in our valuation
A reduction in our estimated weighted average cost of capital (WACC) due mainly to a lower UK market risk premium to 4.8% from 5.5% (source: Damodaran) as well as modest changes to our estimates and updating for the financial position have led to our DCF-based valuation increasing to £31.90/share from £30.20 previously. The share price has performed well year-to-date, leaving the valuation at a deserved premium to its UK peers given premium revenue growth and profitability.
Strong revenue growth and margin increase
Income statement
Greggs demonstrated strong revenue growth of c 14% to c £961m with more favourable improvements in both gross margin to 61.5% from 60.9% in H123 and operating margin to 7.9% from 7.7% in H123.
Exhibit 1: Summary income statement
£m |
H123 |
H223 |
FY23 |
H124 |
Revenue |
844.0 |
965.6 |
1,809.6 |
960.6 |
Growth y-o-y |
21.5% |
18.0% |
19.6% |
13.8% |
- Company-managed stores |
755.8 |
855.1 |
1,610.9 |
851.2 |
Growth y-o-y |
21.4% |
17.2% |
19.1% |
12.6% |
- Business-to-business |
88.2 |
110.5 |
198.7 |
109.4 |
Growth y-o-y |
22.7% |
24.7% |
23.8% |
24.0% |
Gross profit |
514.3 |
584.8 |
1,099.1 |
590.9 |
Gross margin |
60.9% |
60.6% |
60.7% |
61.5% |
Distribution and selling costs |
(408.0) |
(436.5) |
(844.5) |
(465.4) |
As % of sales |
48.3% |
45.2% |
46.7% |
48.4% |
Admin. Expenses |
(40.9) |
(42.0) |
(82.9) |
(49.7) |
As % of sales |
4.8% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
5.2% |
Operating profit |
65.4 |
106.3 |
171.7 |
75.8 |
Margin |
7.7% |
11.0% |
9.5% |
7.9% |
- Company-managed stores |
103.0 |
147.1 |
250.1 |
117.2 |
Margin |
13.6% |
17.2% |
15.5% |
13.8% |
- Business-to-business |
16.7 |
24.4 |
41.1 |
24.5 |
Margin |
18.9% |
22.1% |
20.7% |
22.4% |
Net finance costs |
(1.7) |
(2.3) |
(4.0) |
(1.7) |
Exceptionals |
16.3 |
4.3 |
20.6 |
0.0 |
Underlying profit before tax |
63.7 |
104.0 |
167.7 |
74.1 |
Reported profit before tax |
80.0 |
108.3 |
188.3 |
74.1 |
Tax |
(19.7) |
(26.1) |
(45.8) |
(19.0) |
Tax rate |
24.6% |
24.1% |
24.3% |
25.6% |
Underlying profit after tax |
47.8 |
78.9 |
126.7 |
33.1 |
Reported profit after tax |
60.3 |
82.2 |
142.5 |
55.1 |
Underlying EPS fully diluted (p) |
46.8 |
76.9 |
123.8 |
32.4 |
DPS - ordinary (p) |
16.0 |
46.0 |
62.0 |
19.0 |
Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research
Revenue from company-managed stores and its business-to-business activities (predominantly franchises as well as sales via Iceland stores) both grew handsomely. The latter’s growth of 24% reflects a greater increase in the average number of franchises of about 13% (524 at end H124) versus H123 compared to the 5% growth in the average number of company-managed stores (2,000 by the period end), as well as higher underlying growth than the 7.4% reported for those company-managed stores. In addition to absolute space growth, there is a key message that the company is gradually improving the quality of the estate, which enables it to driver greater volumes from an enhanced menu as well as enabling sales through more channels.
The 7.4% like-for-like growth in company-managed stores was consistent with what was reported for the first 19 weeks of the period, and we note that June 2023’s trading provided a weak comparative due to good weather, quite a contrast to recent months this year. Management attributes the underlying growth to its well-established menu development (including the introduction of over-ice drinks to 500 shops, which is helpful for attracting a younger demographic and positive for margin) and the ongoing above-average growth in evening and delivery sales. The latter grew by more than 40% y-o-y from 5.3% of company-managed sales in H123 to 6.7% in H124.
Greggs’ gross margin increased y-o-y by 60bp, the first year-on-year increase since H121, due to more favourable food and packaging costs than originally anticipated, which were marginally deflationary in H124. This was more than enough to offset the headwind in gross margin due to an increasing proportion of sales via the delivery channel, which have higher operating costs to serve given the commission payable to the aggregators.
The good improvement in the gross margin did not flow all the way down to the operating margin, which increased y-o-y by 20bp, as wage inflation (National Living Wage) kept distribution and selling costs relatively stable (versus sales) but investment in technology led to deleveraging of administrative costs. The company has moved some of its IT infrastructure and data to a cloud platform having enjoyed a cost holiday on fully depreciated on-premise infrastructure. It has also invested in a new customer relationship management platform to improve customer insight and marketing potential, and new EPOS (electronic point of sale) software is being rolled out.
Underlying cost inflation of 4% in H124 compares with management’s unchanged expectation of 4–5% inflation for the full year, indicating a modest increase in inflation in H224. The main driver to the cost inflation comes from personnel costs, which represented 38% of the underlying cost base. Although food and packaging was deflationary in H124, management expects it to be broadly neutral for the year given the potential for some anticipated pick up in costs for dairy products in the final quarter of the year. Despite this minor uncertainty, it believes the inflation backdrop is relatively stable. Energy costs (5% of costs) are also anticipated to be deflationary in FY24, with all of FY24 and around two-thirds of FY25 usage already fixed, and shop occupancy costs continue to be favourable. It is worth highlighting that underlying cost inflation was quite skewed through FY23 with lower cost inflation of 6% in H223 versus 11% in H123.
The effective tax rate of 25.6% was marginally lower than the 26% rate that management has guided to for FY24–26.
On a reported basis, diluted EPS declined by c 9% to 53.8p. However, the prior year included an exceptional net gain of £16.3m on the settlement of a COVID-19 business interruption insurance claim. Adjusting for this item, the underlying growth in EPS was c 15%. The 19% growth in the declared interim dividend to 19p/share (H123: 16p) was slightly higher than the growth in underlying EPS due to the penny rounding of the dividend amount.
Cash flow and balance sheet
Cash generation from operating activities was significantly stronger at c £157m than the prior interim period’s £114.7m, with the main reconciling factors being lower net profit (exceptional gain above) and a significant improvement in working capital as a supplier was unable to invoice Greggs for £30m of delivered goods due it moving to a new billing system, which will reverse in H224.
As previously highlighted, FY24 is the peak year of the current capital investment programme. At the start of the year, management indicated a range of £250–280m of capex with the £30m difference due to prior uncertainty about the timing of the payment for the new national distribution centre in Kettering, which is now likely to fall into FY24. We previously factored in the mid-point of the indicated range so have now increased our outflow by £15m.
Given the high expected investment, management has been clear about running with a higher-than-typical cash balance. The closing cash position at the end of H124 of c £142m was broadly comparable to H123’s c £139m but lower than FY24’s c £195m following the payment of a special dividend for FY23.
Outlook and forecasts
Management’s expectations for FY24 are unchanged on the back of the good H124 results, opportunities available and an unchanged outlook for full-year cost inflation. There was no comment on current trading post the period, which suggests no material change in fortunes since then. There have been some recent price increases on a number of products (prices of meal deals are unchanged) and management does not anticipate any further price increases for the rest of the year. The company benefits from easing revenue growth comparatives from H223 of 18% versus H123’s 21.5%.
We have marginally increased our PBT estimates for each of FY24–26 by c £1m (ie by less than 1%) with the forecast of a better gross margin (60.8%) than previously (60.4%) due to the more favourable trends in H1 with some offset for higher IT spend.
Management has indicated that the full-year year results may include an exceptional gain from the 2017 sale of its bakery in Twickenham, which was sold subject to planning permission that had not been granted until recently. We have not included the indicated c £15m inflow and c £14m book gain in our estimates.
Valuation
Our DCF-based valuation has increased to £31.90/share from £30.20 previously following the changes in our estimates, updated financial position and a reduction in our estimated WACC to 8.7% (9.4% previously). The main cause for the reduction in the WACC is a lower market risk premium of 4.8% versus 5.5% previously (source: Damodaran).
Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity (£/share)
WACC |
||||||
Terminal growth |
|
7.7% |
8.2% |
8.7% |
9.2% |
9.7% |
1.0% |
34.4 |
31.4 |
28.8 |
26.6 |
24.6 |
|
1.5% |
36.5 |
33.2 |
30.3 |
27.8 |
25.6 |
|
2.0% |
38.9 |
35.1 |
31.9 |
29.2 |
26.8 |
|
2.5% |
41.8 |
37.5 |
33.8 |
30.7 |
28.1 |
|
3.0% |
45.4 |
40.3 |
36.1 |
32.6 |
29.6 |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
Compared to its quoted UK peers, Greggs trades at a deserved premium given above-median revenue growth rates and profitability.
Exhibit 3: Peer valuations
Share price (local ccy) |
Ccy |
Market cap (local m) |
Sales growth CY24 (%) |
Sales growth CY25 (%) |
EBIT margin CY24 (%) |
EBIT margin CY25 (%) |
EV/ Sales '24 (x) |
EV/ Sales '25 (x) |
P/E '24 (x) |
P/E '25 (x) |
Div. yield '24 (%) |
Div. yield '25 (%) |
|
Domino’s Pizza Group PLC |
320 |
GBp |
1,283 |
6 |
10 |
17.4 |
17.6 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
15.6 |
13.6 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
Loungers PLC |
206 |
GBp |
212 |
17 |
14 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
21.3 |
16.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Marston's PLC |
49 |
GBp |
309 |
3 |
3 |
17.0 |
17.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
5.8 |
4.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
SSP Group PLC |
260 |
GBp |
2,058 |
12 |
9 |
7.0 |
7.6 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
16.5 |
12.9 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
J D Wetherspoon PLC |
560 |
GBp |
716 |
5 |
4 |
6.9 |
7.2 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
15.8 |
13.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
UK restaurants and pubs median |
6 |
9 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
15.8 |
13.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||
Domino's Pizza Inc |
390.1 |
USD |
13,999 |
(1) |
7 |
18.3 |
18.4 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
29.3 |
26.6 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
McDonald’s Corp |
264.2 |
USD |
195,410 |
10 |
3 |
46.8 |
46.1 |
9.0 |
8.7 |
22.3 |
22.4 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
Starbucks Corp |
84.9 |
USD |
97,383 |
9 |
4 |
16.0 |
15.9 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
21.2 |
20.3 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
Wendys Co |
21.2 |
USD |
4,546 |
4 |
3 |
17.8 |
16.9 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
17.6 |
17.2 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
Yum! Brands Inc |
122.7 |
USD |
35,001 |
3 |
9 |
34.0 |
33.0 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
25.6 |
23.3 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
US restaurants median |
4 |
4 |
18.3 |
18.4 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
22.3 |
22.4 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
|||
J Sainsbury PLC |
221 |
GBp |
5,133 |
4 |
3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
12.6 |
12.6 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
Tesco PLC |
265 |
GBp |
19,697 |
4 |
3 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
14.3 |
13.2 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
UK food retailer median |
4 |
3 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
13.5 |
12.9 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
|||
Greggs |
3,082 |
GBp |
3,152 |
11 |
11 |
9.5 |
9.6 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
23.4 |
21.2 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
Greggs premium/(discount) to UK restaurants median |
17% |
44% |
48% |
56% |
N/A |
N/A |
|||||||
Greggs premium/(discount) to US restaurants median |
(69)% |
(64)% |
5% |
(6)% |
(15)% |
(11)% |
|||||||
Greggs premium/(discount) to UK food retailer median |
227% |
263% |
73% |
64% |
(50)% |
(49)% |
|||||||
Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices 30 July 2024.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
£m |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
||
Year-end December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,512.8 |
1,809.6 |
2,013.6 |
2,230.9 |
2,465.1 |
Cost of Sales |
574.5 |
(710.5) |
(790.1) |
(881.3) |
(979.7) |
||
Gross Profit |
938.3 |
1,099.1 |
1,223.5 |
1,349.6 |
1,485.4 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
269.9 |
299.2 |
347.5 |
388.1 |
414.9 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
154.4 |
171.7 |
191.6 |
214.0 |
230.7 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
20.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating Profit |
154.4 |
192.3 |
191.6 |
214.0 |
230.7 |
||
Net Interest |
(6.1) |
(4.0) |
(7.7) |
(11.2) |
(11.7) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
148.3 |
167.7 |
183.9 |
202.8 |
219.0 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
148.3 |
188.3 |
183.9 |
202.8 |
219.0 |
Tax |
(28.0) |
(41.0) |
(47.8) |
(52.7) |
(56.9) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
120.3 |
126.7 |
136.1 |
150.1 |
162.0 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
120.3 |
142.5 |
136.1 |
150.1 |
162.0 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
101.5 |
101.3 |
102.2 |
102.2 |
102.2 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
117.5 |
123.8 |
131.9 |
145.5 |
157.1 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
118.5 |
140.6 |
133.1 |
146.9 |
158.6 |
Dividend per share (p) |
59.0 |
102.0 |
65.9 |
72.7 |
78.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
62.0 |
60.7 |
60.8 |
60.5 |
60.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
17.8 |
16.5 |
17.3 |
17.4 |
16.8 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
10.2 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.6 |
9.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
685.1 |
825.2 |
1,081.6 |
1,210.6 |
1,282.1 |
Intangible Assets |
13.5 |
18.3 |
25.2 |
29.0 |
30.3 |
||
Tangible Assets |
390.0 |
510.3 |
684.8 |
792.0 |
844.3 |
||
Right-of-Use Assets |
281.6 |
296.6 |
371.7 |
389.6 |
407.6 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
283.0 |
297.9 |
172.5 |
168.7 |
230.5 |
Stocks |
40.6 |
48.8 |
54.3 |
60.5 |
67.3 |
||
Debtors |
50.2 |
53.8 |
59.9 |
66.3 |
73.3 |
||
Cash |
191.6 |
195.3 |
58.4 |
41.9 |
89.9 |
||
Other |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(244.1) |
(272.5) |
(298.8) |
(328.6) |
(360.5) |
Creditors |
(191.7) |
(216.0) |
(239.6) |
(266.8) |
(296.0) |
||
Leases |
(48.8) |
(52.5) |
(55.2) |
(57.8) |
(60.5) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(3.6) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(284.3) |
(326.3) |
(398.7) |
(414.0) |
(429.3) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Leases |
(252.5) |
(267.1) |
(339.5) |
(354.8) |
(370.1) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(31.8) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
439.7 |
524.3 |
556.7 |
636.7 |
722.8 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
272.3 |
333.0 |
364.6 |
407.5 |
435.4 |
Net Interest |
(6.1) |
(4.2) |
(7.0) |
(10.5) |
(11.0) |
||
Tax |
(13.3) |
(11.9) |
(47.8) |
(52.7) |
(56.9) |
||
Capex |
(100.8) |
(197.3) |
(280.0) |
(225.0) |
(175.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
3.1 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
||
Dividends |
(98.5) |
(60.8) |
(108.0) |
(74.3) |
(80.3) |
||
Borrowings and lease liabilities |
(52.7) |
(53.7) |
(57.3) |
(60.0) |
(62.8) |
||
Other |
(11.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(7.0) |
3.7 |
(136.9) |
(16.5) |
48.0 |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.3 |
58.4 |
41.9 |
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing cash |
|
|
191.6 |
195.3 |
58.4 |
41.9 |
89.9 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(191.6) |
(195.3) |
(58.4) |
(41.9) |
(89.9) |
Closing net debt/(cash) including leases |
|
|
109.7 |
124.3 |
336.3 |
370.7 |
340.7 |
Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Metals & Mining
On 29 July, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced it had produced 186,039oz gold in FY24 at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,350/oz. This was within the previously guided range of 186–190koz at an AISC of US$1,325–1,350/oz and was 212oz (0.1%) above our expectation of 185,827oz. Production guidance for FY25 was reiterated at 215–225koz (cf Edison’s unchanged and relatively conservative forecast of 216.6koz). Our financial forecasts for FY24 remain little changed as a result of PAF’s announcement. However, we have increased our forecasts for FY25 to reflect the gold price remaining high into H2 CY24.