Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Last close As at 01/11/2024

GBP27.42

−62.00 (−2.21%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,804m

With 2,473 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

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Consumer | Update

Greggs — Good Q324 on strong comparative

Consumer | Update

Greggs — Confident about FY24 outlook

Consumer | Update

Greggs — Encouraging start to FY24

Consumer | Outlook

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Milo Bussell

Analyst, Consumer and TMT

Key Management

  • Richard Hutton

    FD

  • Roisin Currie

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (£m)

63.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (12.2) (12.5) 15.7
Relative (10.7) (9.4) 3.2
52 week high/low 3190.0p/2394.0p

Financials

Greggs demonstrated continued strong sales growth in Q324, against a challenging Q323 comparative. The company continues to benefit from its multipronged growth strategy of increasing space, extended trading hours, new digital channels and menu development. Management is confident of meeting its full year expectations, helped by marginally lower cost inflation than previously expected.

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 1512.8 269.9 148.3 117.5 23.3 10.2
2023A 1809.6 299.2 167.7 123.8 22.1 8.3
2024E 2013.6 347.5 183.9 128.3 21.4 7.4
2025E 2230.9 388.1 202.8 145.5 18.8 6.9

Research

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

edison tv

Consumer

Greggs – executive interview

Update

Consumer

Greggs — A strong finish to FY23

Update

Consumer

Greggs — FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Improving outlook for costs in FY23

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Continuation of strong trading in FY23

edison tv

Consumer

Greggs – executive interview

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs — Profits on the go

Further insights

insight

Consumer

The UK restaurant market

Thematics

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – Don’t look down

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – The times they are a-changin’

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – Give me a reason to love you

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – At least someone loves me

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