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Currency in GBP
Last close As at 09/06/2023
GBP26.94
▲ 2.00 (0.07%)
Market capitalisation
GBP2,751m
With 2,365 shops and 12 main manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.
Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.
Consumer
Consumer
Director, Consumer
Richard Hutton
FD
Roisin Currie
CEO
Forecast net cash (£m)
155.7
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
| % | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | (7.2) | (0.1) | 25.1 |
| Relative | (5.1) | 4.2 | 26.4 |
| 52 week high/low | 2904.0p/1673.0p |
Following the strong start to FY23, with year-on-year, like-for-like revenue growth in company-managed stores of 18.8% in the first nine weeks of the year, growth moderated a tad in the next 10 weeks, to 15.7%, due to a slightly stronger comparative. Total revenue for the 19 weeks to 13 May grew by 23% y-o-y to £609m, from £495m. The moderation in like-for-like growth is in line with management’s expectations and will continue through FY23 as Greggs annualises its series of price increases made in FY22. The growth rates include average selling price inflation of 12%, and pleasing volume growth as footfall and transaction numbers have increased. There is no change to management’s profit expectations for the year, which includes no change to guidance for underlying cost inflation of 9–10%.
| Y/E Dec | Revenue (£m) | EBITDA (£m) | PBT (£m) | EPS (fd) (p) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021A | 1229.7 | 259.0 | 145.6 | 114.3 | 23.6 | 8.8 |
| 2022A | 1512.8 | 269.9 | 148.3 | 117.5 | 22.9 | 10.0 |
| 2023E | 1710.8 | 305.0 | 161.2 | 119.1 | 22.6 | 8.5 |
| 2024E | 1902.9 | 351.9 | 183.1 | 131.7 | 20.5 | 7.4 |
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