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Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 30/11/2023

GBP24.56

▲ −34.00 (−1.37%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,546m

With 2,410 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

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Consumer | Update

Greggs — FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Consumer | Update

Greggs — Improving outlook for costs in FY23

Consumer | Update

Greggs — Continuation of strong trading in FY23

Consumer | edison tv

Greggs – executive interview
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Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Key Management

  • Richard Hutton

    FD

  • Roisin Currie

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (£m)

172.9

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 7.3 1.4 8.8
Relative 4.3 1.9 10.6
52 week high/low 2904.0p/2282.0p

Financials

The strength of underlying trading in Q323 was highlighted by management’s confirmation of consensus FY23 PBT expectations despite the addition of new costs for expanding the company’s delivery offer to a second platform and a slight delay in some store openings from the end of the year into FY24. Total year-on-year revenue growth of 20.8% in the 13 weeks to 30 September followed H123 growth of 21.5%. On an underlying basis, like-for-like growth in company-managed stores of 14.2% (16% in H123) moderated, as should be expected given Greggs has been and will continue to annualise against price increases made in FY22.

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 1229.7 259.0 145.6 114.3 21.5 8.0
2022A 1512.8 269.9 148.3 117.5 20.9 9.2
2023E 1778.4 303.7 164.9 116.3 21.1 7.2
2024E 1970.1 350.6 186.0 133.8 18.4 6.8

Research

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Improving outlook for costs in FY23

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Continuation of strong trading in FY23

Consumer

Update

Greggs — FY23 profit expectations reiterated

edison tv

Consumer

Greggs – executive interview

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs — Profits on the go

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Eye-catching revenue growth

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — A ‘relative winner’

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Strong H122 trading and progress on strategy

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Profit outlook maintained for FY22

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs plc — Not peak Greggs yet

Flash note

Consumer

Greggs — Medium-term growth ambition quantified
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Further insights

insight

Consumer

The UK restaurant market

Analyst of the week

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

rpointon@edisongroup.com 020 3077 5700
Read latest

Thematics

thematic

Consumer

Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum (EKF) 2023 consumer and media

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – October 2023

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – July 2023

thematic

Consumer

ConsumerWatch – April 2023
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