Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 04/02/2023

GBP28.20

120.00 (4.44%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,757m

With 2,328 shops and 12 main manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and making Greggs mean more to more people. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

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Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Key Management

  • Richard Hutton

    FD

  • Roisin Currie

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (£m)

191.2

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

42

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 20.2 38.4 1.2
Relative 13.8 25.7 0.2
52 week high/low 2820.0p/1673.0p

Financials

Greggs reported a strong acceleration in revenue growth in Q422 as revenue from new initiatives, digital and evening trading complemented anticipated space growth and underlying growth. Value leadership continues to support volume growth and the company’s ability to pass on inflationary cost pressures. As Greggs enters the second full year of its five-year strategy, FY23 profit growth is expected to improve as newer initiatives mature, and following the suppression of FY22 profit by internal investment, cost inflation and the return of some costs to the income statement post the initial COVID outbreak. We trimmed our FY23 and FY24 estimates by 3%, primarily due to higher-than-expected cost inflation.

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2020A 811.3 115.4 (12.9) (12.1) N/A 46.2
2021A 1229.7 259.0 145.6 114.3 24.7 9.2
2022E 1513.0 267.1 146.9 118.0 23.9 9.8
2023E 1654.0 302.4 160.2 118.2 23.9 9.1

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