Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.25
▲ −8.00 (−0.41%)
Market capitalisation
GBP1,977m
Research: Consumer
Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.
Greggs |
Encouraging start to FY24 |
19 weeks trading update |
Retail |
14 May 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
1,512.8 |
148.3 |
117.5 |
59.0 |
23.7 |
2.1 |
12/23 |
1,809.6 |
167.7 |
123.8 |
102.0 |
22.4 |
3.7 |
12/24e |
2,013.6 |
182.8 |
131.1 |
65.5 |
21.2 |
2.4 |
12/25e |
2,230.9 |
201.4 |
144.4 |
72.2 |
19.2 |
2.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items.
Strong compound growth
In the first 19 weeks of the year, to 11 May, Greggs delivered strong year-on-year revenue growth of c 14% to £693m, which compounds c 23% growth in the same period last year. Although there appears to be some slowing in like-for-like revenue growth in company-managed stores in the last 10 weeks (7.4% growth in 19 weeks versus 8.2% in the first eight weeks of the year), this reflects higher transaction volume growth in January and relatively stable transaction growth in the rest of the period. Management believes it has taken market share in the food-on-the-go market again in the first quarter of the year. The company is still enjoying the benefits from price rises made in June and December 2023, with some further modest and targeted increases expected later in the year to get to full recovery of the expected input cost inflation. Management’s expectations for input cost inflation of 4–5% in FY24 are unchanged. The inflation is driven by staff costs while there is already deflation in food input prices and energy prices are starting to deflate.
No changes to estimates
The company is progressing well against its own expectations, which are unchanged for the year, and our own estimates. Our forecast for 11% y-o-y revenue growth in FY24 looks well-supported given the performance reported above, easier comparatives through the end of the year, and despite a smaller benefit from price inflation this year than last year as input cost pressures reduce.
Valuation: In line with recent multiples
The share price has increased by c 6% year-to-date, modestly behind the UK market return of 9%. The prospective P/E multiple for FY24 of 21.2x is at a premium to the average multiple since FY15 of 19.0x, but in the middle of more recent (FY19 onwards) average multiples that have ranged between 19x and 23x, reflecting the expected strong growth profile as the company increases its market penetration and trading in new dayparts.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
||
Year-end December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
811.3 |
1,229.7 |
1,512.8 |
1,809.6 |
2,013.6 |
2,230.9 |
2,465.1 |
Cost of Sales |
-299.6 |
-447.7 |
-574.5 |
-710.5 |
-798.2 |
-889.5 |
-987.8 |
||
Gross Profit |
511.7 |
782.0 |
938.3 |
1,099.1 |
1,215.4 |
1,341.4 |
1,477.2 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
115.4 |
259.0 |
269.9 |
299.2 |
344.5 |
385.0 |
412.7 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
-6.2 |
153.2 |
154.4 |
171.7 |
190.5 |
212.6 |
229.9 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
-0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
20.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating Profit |
-7.0 |
153.2 |
154.4 |
192.3 |
190.5 |
212.6 |
229.9 |
||
Net Interest |
-6.7 |
-7.6 |
-6.1 |
-4.0 |
-7.7 |
-11.2 |
-11.7 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
-12.9 |
145.6 |
148.3 |
167.7 |
182.8 |
201.4 |
218.2 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
-13.7 |
145.6 |
148.3 |
188.3 |
182.8 |
201.4 |
218.2 |
Tax |
0.7 |
-28.1 |
-28.0 |
-41.0 |
-47.5 |
-52.4 |
-56.7 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
-12.2 |
117.5 |
120.3 |
126.7 |
135.2 |
149.0 |
161.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
-13.0 |
117.5 |
120.3 |
142.5 |
135.2 |
149.0 |
161.5 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
101.0 |
101.5 |
101.5 |
101.3 |
102.2 |
102.2 |
102.2 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
(12.1) |
114.3 |
117.5 |
123.8 |
131.1 |
144.4 |
156.5 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
(12.9) |
115.7 |
118.5 |
140.6 |
132.3 |
145.8 |
158.0 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.0 |
97.0 |
59.0 |
102.0 |
65.5 |
72.2 |
78.3 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
63.1 |
63.6 |
62.0 |
60.7 |
60.4 |
60.1 |
59.9 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
14.2 |
21.1 |
17.8 |
16.5 |
17.1 |
17.3 |
16.7 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
(0.8) |
12.5 |
10.2 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
631.0 |
622.3 |
685.1 |
825.2 |
1,068.5 |
1,199.0 |
1,272.0 |
Intangible Assets |
15.6 |
14.9 |
13.5 |
18.3 |
24.7 |
28.5 |
29.9 |
||
Tangible Assets |
345.3 |
343.8 |
390.0 |
510.3 |
672.1 |
780.9 |
834.5 |
||
Right-of-Use Assets |
270.1 |
263.6 |
281.6 |
296.6 |
371.7 |
389.6 |
407.6 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
98.7 |
266.1 |
283.0 |
297.9 |
187.7 |
181.8 |
241.8 |
Stocks |
22.5 |
27.9 |
40.6 |
48.8 |
54.8 |
61.1 |
67.8 |
||
Debtors |
39.4 |
37.6 |
50.2 |
53.8 |
59.9 |
66.3 |
73.3 |
||
Cash |
36.8 |
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.3 |
73.0 |
54.3 |
100.6 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(144.1) |
(206.9) |
(244.1) |
(272.5) |
(301.2) |
(331.0) |
(362.9) |
Creditors |
(91.1) |
(153.4) |
(191.7) |
(216.0) |
(242.1) |
(269.2) |
(298.4) |
||
Leases |
(48.6) |
(49.3) |
(48.8) |
(52.5) |
(55.2) |
(57.8) |
(60.5) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(4.4) |
(4.2) |
(3.6) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(264.0) |
(252.3) |
(284.3) |
(326.3) |
(398.7) |
(414.0) |
(429.3) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Leases |
(243.1) |
(233.9) |
(252.5) |
(267.1) |
(339.5) |
(354.8) |
(370.1) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(20.9) |
(18.4) |
(31.8) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
321.6 |
429.2 |
439.7 |
524.3 |
556.3 |
635.8 |
721.6 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
61.6 |
312.1 |
272.3 |
333.0 |
363.5 |
404.4 |
433.2 |
Net Interest |
(6.7) |
(7.4) |
(6.1) |
(4.2) |
(7.0) |
(10.5) |
(11.0) |
||
Tax |
(10.7) |
(19.2) |
(13.3) |
(11.9) |
(47.5) |
(52.4) |
(56.7) |
||
Capex |
(59.8) |
(54.0) |
(100.8) |
(197.3) |
(265.0) |
(225.0) |
(175.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
3.7 |
4.6 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
(15.3) |
(98.5) |
(60.8) |
(107.6) |
(73.8) |
(80.0) |
||
Borrowings and lease liabilities |
(42.1) |
(49.0) |
(52.7) |
(53.7) |
(57.3) |
(60.0) |
(62.8) |
||
Other |
(0.5) |
(10.0) |
(11.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(54.5) |
161.8 |
(7.0) |
3.7 |
(122.3) |
(18.7) |
46.3 |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
91.3 |
36.8 |
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.3 |
73.0 |
54.3 |
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing cash |
|
|
36.8 |
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.3 |
73.0 |
54.3 |
100.6 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(36.8) |
(198.6) |
(191.6) |
(195.3) |
(73.0) |
(54.3) |
(100.6) |
Closing net debt/(cash) including leases |
|
|
254.9 |
84.6 |
109.7 |
124.3 |
321.6 |
358.3 |
329.9 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) has been managed by Lindsell Train since the beginning of 2001. During his long tenure, approaching a quarter of a century, lead manager Nick Train has steadily acquired a significant 2.9% personal holding in the trust, which is a considerable amount of ‘skin in the game’. From the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2023, FGT’s 9.0% annual NAV total return was comfortably ahead of the UK market’s 5.1% annual total return. However, Train and deputy manager Madeline Wright, who was appointed in 2019, have underperformed for the last three years. The managers will continue with their successful long-term strategy of running a concentrated portfolio; Train’s philosophy is that wealth creation requires a concentrated approach, while diversification is necessary for wealth protection.