Pan African Resources

Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 20/09/2023

GBP0.16

▲ 0.64 (4.11%)

Market capitalisation

GBP346m

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

Our core valuation of PAF is 34.24 cents per share (26.86p/share), based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by a further 17.47–22.49c (13.70–17.64p) once other assets (eg Egoli) are taken into account. Alternatively, if the company’s historical average price to normalised headline EPS ratio of 8.6x is applied to our forecasts, it implies a share price of 23.51p in FY23.

Latest Insights

Metals & Mining |
Update

18.09.23

Pan African Resources — Advancing to 250koz in annual output in FY26

Metals & Mining |
Update

18.08.23

Pan African Resources — Dividend yield trending higher than P/E ratio

Metals & Mining |
Update

30.05.23

Pan African Resources — Taking the rough with the smooth

Metals & Mining |
Flash note

17.03.23

Pan African Resources — Innovative funding avoids dilution

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Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Key Management

Cobus Loots

CEO
Deon Louw

FD
Keith Cousens Spencer

Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

76.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	26.7	28.7	(4.6)
Relative	19.6	26.5	(10.3)
52 week high/low	20.2p/12.0p

Financials

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY23 results, announced on 13 September, were closely in line with our forecasts. Barberton underground, Evander underground and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project (BTRP) all recorded higher throughputs at slightly lower grades than we had been expecting, but also lower unit cash costs in ZAR/t terms. Elikhulu performed in line with our expectations in terms of output, albeit at slightly higher unit costs, owing to continued electricity supply disruptions and unfavourable weather. Overall, earnings for H123 and FY23 were US$2.5m higher than our prior forecasts, translating into 8.5% outperformance and 4.3% outperformance, respectively. EPS was in the top half of the consensus forecast range.