Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 25/01/2023

GBP0.18

−0.20 (−1.07%)

Market capitalisation

GBP414m

Pan African Resources has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 45koz, rising to >75koz).

Prior to FY22 results, our core valuation of PAF was 44.67c/share (37.18p/share), based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rose by a further 15.67–20.69c (13.04–17.22p) once other assets (eg Egoli) were also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised EPS ratio of 8.9x is applied to our FY23 forecast, it implies a share price of 40.78p. In the meantime, it is cheaper than its peers on 69% of valuation measures and remains among the top 15 yielding precious metals companies globally.

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Key Management

  • Cobus Loots

    CEO

  • Deon Louw

    FD

  • Keith Cousens Spencer

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

75.3

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

22

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 12.9 9.2 (3.3)
Relative 8.6 (1.2) (5.6)
52 week high/low 24.0p/16.1p

Financials

Based on adjusted EBITDA, Pan African Resource’s performance in H222 was its third best on record and only fractionally (3.8% or ZAR47.8m) below its record level of ZAR1,264.8m in H122. Despite normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) being slightly below our prior expectations, this could be attributed to operating costs that stuck at higher levels than we had previously anticipated (in common with much of the global mining industry), which were left unrelieved by only a modest depreciation of the rand versus the US dollar.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 368.9 156.6 117.7 4.54 4.9 3.5
2022A 376.4 147.8 117.2 4.44 5.1 3.0
2023E 352.1 132.3 97.4 3.82 5.9 3.7
2024E 342.0 126.9 96.7 4.10 5.5 3.4

Thematics

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free