Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Last close As at 22/07/2024

GBP0.27

0.35 (1.33%)

Market capitalisation

GBP512m

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

We have recently increased our core valuation of PAF to 48.08 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 46–57% once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 66% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 18th highest dividend yield in the precious metals mining sector, globally.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Anticipating a happy valentine

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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Cobus Loots

    CEO

  • Deon Louw

    FD

  • Keith Cousens Spencer

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

93.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

26

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (3.1) 16.3 85.7
Relative (3.2) 12.9 72.8
52 week high/low 28.3p/12.8p

Financials

After exceeding our forecasts in FY23, Pan African’s (PAF’s) interim adjusted EBITDA achieved a record of ZAR1,513m in H124 – 20% above the previous record. Since then, production guidance for FY24 has been increased to 186-190koz (cf 180–190koz previously) at an unchanged all-in sustaining cost of US$1,325-1,350/oz and it has concluded a five-year wage agreement at Barberton. As a result, we have increased our normalised EPS estimate for the year by 19%. Within the next two years, however, we expect output to exceed 250koz pa and normalised EPS to exceed 6c/share.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 376.4 147.8 117.2 4.44 7.6 4.6
2023A 321.6 121.9 92.9 3.54 9.5 4.9
2024E 390.3 177.6 141.7 5.73 5.9 5.9
2025E 420.8 206.6 162.4 6.28 5.4 3.4

Thematics

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Critical minerals: The investment vacuum

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Lithium’s adolescence

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