Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Last close As at 20/04/2024

GBP0.24

−0.20 (−0.83%)

Market capitalisation

GBP531m

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

At our updated gold price forecasts, our core valuation of PAF is 41.15 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 51–63% once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. At the same time, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 91% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 14th highest dividend yield in the sector, globally.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Anticipating a happy valentine

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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Cobus Loots

    CEO

  • Deon Louw

    FD

  • Keith Cousens Spencer

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

105.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

31

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 15.2 52.7 22.3
Relative 13.3 45.2 22.5
52 week high/low 24.6p/12.0p

Financials

After exceeding our forecasts in FY23, Pan African’s interim adjusted EBITDA achieved a record of ZAR1,512.6m in H124 – 19.6% above the previous record set in H122. Production guidance for FY24 remains unchanged at 180–190koz (cf 98.5koz in H124), albeit with the proviso that ‘increased guidance may be considered in due course’. However, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance has been lowered from c US$1,350/oz to c US$1,325-1,350/oz. In the longer term, we expect output to exceed 250koz pa once the 25 & 26 Level and Mintails/Mogale/MTR projects also reach full production.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 376.4 147.8 117.2 4.44 6.8 4.1
2023A 321.6 121.9 92.9 3.54 8.5 4.4
2024E 369.7 154.4 118.5 4.81 6.3 6.0
2025E 404.6 194.9 150.4 5.81 5.2 3.3

Thematics

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Lithium’s adolescence

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