Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Last close As at 23/05/2024

GBP0.25

−0.25 (−0.99%)

Market capitalisation

GBP558m

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

At our updated gold price forecasts, our core valuation of PAF is 41.15 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 51–63% once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. At the same time, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 91% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 14th highest dividend yield in the sector, globally.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Anticipating a happy valentine

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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Cobus Loots

    CEO

  • Deon Louw

    FD

  • Keith Cousens Spencer

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

93.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

26

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 5.5 39.0 49.2
Relative 1.6 28.6 38.9
52 week high/low 26.3p/12.0p

Financials

On 9 May, Pan African announced that it was narrowing its production guidance for the year ending 30 June 2024 to 186–190koz (cf 180–190koz previously), notwithstanding the cessation of production from surface sources at Evander in H2. Group AISC guidance was maintained at US$1,325–1,350/oz (at ZAR18.50/US$) however. Consequently, we have increased our H2 production forecast by 2.5% as well as increasing our H224 gold price by 9.2% to result in a US$20.6m positive variance in H224e revenue, only partially offset by incidental higher costs, to result in a 41.7% increase in H224e normalised EPS and a 19.1% increase in FY24e normalised EPS. Production guidance was also provided for FY25 of 215–225koz, which compares with Edison’s prior (and unchanged – and, in the event, relatively conservative) forecast of 216.6koz.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 376.4 147.8 117.2 4.44 7.0 4.2
2023A 321.6 121.9 92.9 3.54 8.8 4.5
2024E 390.3 177.6 141.7 5.73 5.4 5.4
2025E 420.8 206.6 162.4 6.28 4.9 3.2

Outlook

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Everything falling into place

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Exceeding expectations (as usual)

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Record interim profitability

edison tv

Metals & Mining

Webinar: Pan African Resources

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Entailed

edison tv

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources – executive interview

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Back to where it belongs

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Roundabouts and swings

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — H120 confirms FY20 forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Entering harvest mode

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Solid push towards year end

Outlook

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Elikhulu underpins recovery

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — On track for 170koz in FY19

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — EGM’s Parthian shot

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Finishing unfinished business

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — A second glance at the first half

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — FY17 results in line

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Disposals hone investment case

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Canning coal

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Tails wagging

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Update 13 December 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Update 28 September 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Update 18 August 2016

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Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Update 15 March 2016

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Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Update 24 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Update 10 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Update 9 December 2015