Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).
Our core valuation of PAF is 34.24 cents per share (26.86p/share), based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by a further 17.47–22.49c (13.70–17.64p) once other assets (eg Egoli) are taken into account. Alternatively, if the company’s historical average price to normalised headline EPS ratio of 8.6x is applied to our forecasts, it implies a share price of 23.51p in FY23.
Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
Flash note
Cobus Loots
CEO
Deon Louw
FD
Keith Cousens Spencer
Chairman
Forecast net debt (US$m)
76.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
21
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | 23.1 | 26.6 | (2.7) |
Relative | 16.7 | 24.9 | (7.3) |
52 week high/low | 20.2p/12.0p |
Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY23 results, announced on 13 September, were closely in line with our forecasts. Barberton underground, Evander underground and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project (BTRP) all recorded higher throughputs at slightly lower grades than we had been expecting, but also lower unit cash costs in ZAR/t terms. Elikhulu performed in line with our expectations in terms of output, albeit at slightly higher unit costs, owing to continued electricity supply disruptions and unfavourable weather. Overall, earnings for H123 and FY23 were US$2.5m higher than our prior forecasts, translating into 8.5% outperformance and 4.3% outperformance, respectively. EPS was in the top half of the consensus forecast range.
Y/E Jun | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 376.4 | 147.8 | 117.2 | 4.44 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
2023A | 321.6 | 121.9 | 92.9 | 3.54 | 5.7 | 2.9 |
2024E | 359.0 | 165.1 | 136.7 | 5.40 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
2025E | 395.1 | 180.5 | 141.7 | 5.69 | 3.6 | 2.3 |