Pan African Resources - Edison Group

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

We have recently increased our core valuation of PAF to 48.41 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 46–57% once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 69% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 24th highest dividend yield in the precious metals mining sector, globally. FY24 results are scheduled for 11 September.

Latest Insights

View More

Metals & Mining |
Update

31.07.24

Pan African Resources — Hitting expectations

Metals & Mining |
Update

24.05.24

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup

Metals & Mining |
Update

20.05.24

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance

Metals & Mining |
Update

20.02.24

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Pan-African-Resources_resized

Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

Cobus Loots

CEO
Deon Louw

FD
Keith Cousens Spencer

Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

106.4

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

30

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	5.1	18.0	108.8
Relative	3.3	19.4	89.2
52 week high/low	31.4p/13.0p

Financials

After exceeding our forecasts in FY23, Pan African’s interim adjusted EBITDA achieved a record of ZAR1,513m in H124 – 20% above the previous record. Since then, increased production guidance of 186-190koz for FY24 (cf 180–190koz previously) has been met at an indicated all-in sustaining cost of US$1,350/oz (cf US$1,325-1,350/oz). This has cemented our normalised EPS estimate for FY24. Within the next two years, however, we expect output to exceed 250koz pa and normalised EPS to exceed 6c/share and possibly reach 9c/share.

Y/E Jun	Revenue (US$m)	EBITDA (US$m)	PBT (US$m)	EPS (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2022A	376.4	147.8	117.2	4.44	8.6	5.1
2023A	321.6	121.9	92.9	3.54	10.8	5.5
2024E	390.7	177.9	142.0	5.72	6.7	6.5
2025E	473.9	257.0	211.4	8.02	4.8	3.3

Update

14.11.22

Pan African Resources — Setting the scene for FY23 and beyond

Update

Metals & Mining

07.07.22

Pan African Resources — Building steam

Update

Metals & Mining

08.04.22

Pan African Resources — Quietly getting the job done in South Africa

Outlook

Metals & Mining

28.10.21

Pan African Resources — Everything falling into place

Update

Metals & Mining

21.07.21

Pan African Resources — Exceeding expectations (as usual)

Update

Metals & Mining

03.03.21

Pan African Resources — Record interim profitability

edison tv

Metals & Mining

03.12.20

Webinar: Pan African Resources

Update

Metals & Mining

17.11.20

Pan African Resources — Entailed

Update

Metals & Mining

14.10.20

Pan African Resources — The sun rises over Egoliâs city of gold

edison tv

Metals & Mining

17.09.20

Pan African Resources – executive interview

Update

Metals & Mining

28.07.20

Pan African Resources — Back to where it belongs

Update

Metals & Mining

12.05.20

Pan African Resources — Roundabouts and swings

Update

Metals & Mining

02.03.20

Pan African Resources — H120 confirms FY20 forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

02.10.19

Pan African Resources — Entering harvest mode

Update

Metals & Mining

19.06.19

Pan African Resources — Solid push towards year end

Outlook

Metals & Mining

12.03.19

Pan African Resources — Elikhulu underpins recovery

Update

Metals & Mining

12.11.18

Pan African Resources — On track for 170koz in FY19

Update

Metals & Mining

11.10.18

Pan African Resources — Return to dividend paying status in FY19 a priority

Update

Metals & Mining

19.07.18

Pan African Resources — EGM’s Parthian shot

Update

Metals & Mining

16.05.18

Pan African Resources — Finishing unfinished business

Update

Metals & Mining

23.04.18

Pan African Resources — A second glance at the first half

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.17

Pan African Resources — FY17 results in line

Update

Metals & Mining

24.08.17

Pan African Resources — Disposals hone investment case

Update

Metals & Mining

17.05.17

Pan African Resources — Canning coal

Update

Metals & Mining

04.04.17

Pan African Resources — Tails wagging

Update

Metals & Mining

13.12.16

Pan African Resources — Update 13 December 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.16

Pan African Resources — Update 28 September 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

18.08.16

Pan African Resources — Update 18 August 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

16.03.16

Pan African Resources — Update 15 March 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

25.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 24 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

11.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 10 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

10.12.15

Pan African Resources — Update 9 December 2015