Key themes

• Fundamental monetary relationships establish a base value in the low $2,000s/oz.
• Striking parallels with the 1970s real interest rate cycle suggest early stages of a major rebasing.
• Unprecedented central bank buying provides structural support for 15 consecutive years.
• Average all-in sustaining costs at $1,400/oz versus spot price of c $2,700/oz.
• Gold equities historically outperform physical gold by two to five times in bull markets.

Core insights

• Monetary metrics point to a sustainable fundamental floor of around $2,000/oz.
• Real interest rate transition phase is historically associated with gold price rebasing.
• Central bank buying is contributing 7–10% to gold’s price performance.
• Mining sector margins are robust with cost inflation slowing significantly.
• Gold equities offer compelling valuations versus the broader market.

Companies highlighted

Gold majors

• Agnico Eagle Mines (m cap: $33bn): North American-focused producer.
• Barrick Gold (m cap: $29bn): Global tier one asset operator.
• Newmont (m cap: $47bn): World’s largest gold producer.
• AngloGold Ashanti (m cap: $8.5bn): African/Americas-focused producer.

Mid-tier producers

• Gold Fields (m cap: $12bn): South African heritage, global portfolio.
• Kinross Gold (m cap: $7bn): Americas-focused producer.
• Harmony Gold Mining (m cap: $3bn): South African specialist.
• Endeavour Group (m cap: $4bn): West African-focused producer.

Royalty/streaming

• Wheaton Precious Metals (m cap: $21bn): Precious metals streaming company.

Conclusions

• Framework indicates significant upside potential from current levels.
• Bear case would require an unlikely combination of global peace and 4%+ real rates.
• Gold equities offer most compelling opportunity at this point in the cycle.
• Success factors include strong balance sheets, robust operating margins, proven execution capabilities and portfolio quality.
• Risk-reward profile remains asymmetric to the upside.

Register for free below to read the full report.