Pan African Resources - Edison Group

Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 21/09/2023

GBP0.16

▲ −0.22 (−1.36%)

Market capitalisation

GBP346m

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

Our core valuation of PAF is 34.24 cents per share (26.86p/share), based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by a further 17.47–22.49c (13.70–17.64p) once other assets (eg Egoli) are taken into account. Alternatively, if the company’s historical average price to normalised headline EPS ratio of 8.6x is applied to our forecasts, it implies a share price of 23.51p in FY23.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining |
Update

18.09.23

Pan African Resources — Advancing to 250koz in annual output in FY26

Metals & Mining |
Update

18.08.23

Pan African Resources — Dividend yield trending higher than P/E ratio

Metals & Mining |
Update

30.05.23

Pan African Resources — Taking the rough with the smooth

Metals & Mining |
Flash note

17.03.23

Pan African Resources — Innovative funding avoids dilution

Pan-African-Resources_resized

Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Key Management

Cobus Loots

CEO
Deon Louw

FD
Keith Cousens Spencer

Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

76.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

21

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	23.1	26.6	(2.7)
Relative	16.7	24.9	(7.3)
52 week high/low	20.2p/12.0p

Financials

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY23 results, announced on 13 September, were closely in line with our forecasts. Barberton underground, Evander underground and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project (BTRP) all recorded higher throughputs at slightly lower grades than we had been expecting, but also lower unit cash costs in ZAR/t terms. Elikhulu performed in line with our expectations in terms of output, albeit at slightly higher unit costs, owing to continued electricity supply disruptions and unfavourable weather. Overall, earnings for H123 and FY23 were US$2.5m higher than our prior forecasts, translating into 8.5% outperformance and 4.3% outperformance, respectively. EPS was in the top half of the consensus forecast range.

Y/E Jun	Revenue (US$m)	EBITDA (US$m)	PBT (US$m)	EPS (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2022A	376.4	147.8	117.2	4.44	4.6	2.7
2023A	321.6	121.9	92.9	3.54	5.7	2.9
2024E	359.0	165.1	136.7	5.40	3.8	3.4
2025E	395.1	180.5	141.7	5.69	3.6	2.3

Research

Update

Metals & Mining

17.11.20

Pan African Resources — Entailed

Update

Metals & Mining

14.10.20

Pan African Resources — The sun rises over Egoliâs city of gold

Metals & Mining

edison tv

Webinar: Pan African Resources

edison tv

Metals & Mining

17.09.20

Pan African Resources – executive interview

Update

Metals & Mining

28.07.20

Pan African Resources — Back to where it belongs

Update

Metals & Mining

12.05.20

Pan African Resources — Roundabouts and swings

Update

Metals & Mining

02.03.20

Pan African Resources — H120 confirms FY20 forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

02.10.19

Pan African Resources — Entering harvest mode

Update

Metals & Mining

19.06.19

Pan African Resources — Solid push towards year end

Outlook

Metals & Mining

12.03.19

Pan African Resources — Elikhulu underpins recovery

Update

Metals & Mining

12.11.18

Pan African Resources — On track for 170koz in FY19

Update

Metals & Mining

11.10.18

Pan African Resources — Return to dividend paying status in FY19 a priority

Update

Metals & Mining

19.07.18

Pan African Resources — EGM’s Parthian shot

Update

Metals & Mining

16.05.18

Pan African Resources — Finishing unfinished business

Update

Metals & Mining

23.04.18

Pan African Resources — A second glance at the first half

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.17

Pan African Resources — FY17 results in line

Update

Metals & Mining

24.08.17

Pan African Resources — Disposals hone investment case

Update

Metals & Mining

17.05.17

Pan African Resources — Canning coal

Update

Metals & Mining

04.04.17

Pan African Resources — Tails wagging

Update

Metals & Mining

13.12.16

Pan African Resources — Update 13 December 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.16

Pan African Resources — Update 28 September 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

18.08.16

Pan African Resources — Update 18 August 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

16.03.16

Pan African Resources — Update 15 March 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

25.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 24 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

11.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 10 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

10.12.15

Pan African Resources — Update 9 December 2015

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