Pan African Resources - Edison Group

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

At our updated gold price forecasts, our core valuation of PAF is 41.15 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 51–63% once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. At the same time, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 91% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 14th highest dividend yield in the sector, globally.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining |
Update

20.02.24

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Metals & Mining |
Update

26.01.24

Pan African Resources — Anticipating a happy valentine

Metals & Mining |
Update

01.12.23

Pan African Resources — Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

Metals & Mining |
Update

18.09.23

Pan African Resources — Advancing to 250koz in annual output in FY26

Pan-African-Resources_resized

Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

Cobus Loots

CEO
Deon Louw

FD
Keith Cousens Spencer

Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

105.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

31

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	10.6	40.3	23.9
Relative	9.6	31.8	22.1
52 week high/low	24.6p/12.0p

Financials

After exceeding our forecasts in FY23, Pan African’s interim adjusted EBITDA achieved a record of ZAR1,512.6m in H124 – 19.6% above the previous record set in H122. Production guidance for FY24 remains unchanged at 180–190koz (cf 98.5koz in H124), albeit with the proviso that ‘increased guidance may be considered in due course’. However, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance has been lowered from c US$1,350/oz to c US$1,325-1,350/oz. In the longer term, we expect output to exceed 250koz pa once the 25 & 26 Level and Mintails/Mogale/MTR projects also reach full production.

Y/E Jun	Revenue (US$m)	EBITDA (US$m)	PBT (US$m)	EPS (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2022A	376.4	147.8	117.2	4.44	6.4	3.8
2023A	321.6	121.9	92.9	3.54	8.0	4.1
2024E	369.7	154.4	118.5	4.81	5.9	5.6
2025E	404.6	194.9	150.4	5.81	4.9	3.1

Research

Update

Metals & Mining

07.07.22

Pan African Resources — Building steam

Update

Metals & Mining

08.04.22

Pan African Resources — Quietly getting the job done in South Africa

Update

Pan African Resources — Setting the scene for FY23 and beyond

Outlook

Metals & Mining

28.10.21

Pan African Resources — Everything falling into place

Update

Metals & Mining

21.07.21

Pan African Resources — Exceeding expectations (as usual)

Update

Metals & Mining

03.03.21

Pan African Resources — Record interim profitability

edison tv

Metals & Mining

03.12.20

Webinar: Pan African Resources

Update

Metals & Mining

17.11.20

Pan African Resources — Entailed

Update

Metals & Mining

14.10.20

Pan African Resources — The sun rises over Egoliâs city of gold

edison tv

Metals & Mining

17.09.20

Pan African Resources – executive interview

Update

Metals & Mining

28.07.20

Pan African Resources — Back to where it belongs

Update

Metals & Mining

12.05.20

Pan African Resources — Roundabouts and swings

Update

Metals & Mining

02.03.20

Pan African Resources — H120 confirms FY20 forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

02.10.19

Pan African Resources — Entering harvest mode

Update

Metals & Mining

19.06.19

Pan African Resources — Solid push towards year end

Outlook

Metals & Mining

12.03.19

Pan African Resources — Elikhulu underpins recovery

Update

Metals & Mining

12.11.18

Pan African Resources — On track for 170koz in FY19

Update

Metals & Mining

11.10.18

Pan African Resources — Return to dividend paying status in FY19 a priority

Update

Metals & Mining

19.07.18

Pan African Resources — EGM’s Parthian shot

Update

Metals & Mining

16.05.18

Pan African Resources — Finishing unfinished business

Update

Metals & Mining

23.04.18

Pan African Resources — A second glance at the first half

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.17

Pan African Resources — FY17 results in line

Update

Metals & Mining

24.08.17

Pan African Resources — Disposals hone investment case

Update

Metals & Mining

17.05.17

Pan African Resources — Canning coal

Update

Metals & Mining

04.04.17

Pan African Resources — Tails wagging

Update

Metals & Mining

13.12.16

Pan African Resources — Update 13 December 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.16

Pan African Resources — Update 28 September 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

18.08.16

Pan African Resources — Update 18 August 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

16.03.16

Pan African Resources — Update 15 March 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

25.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 24 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

11.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 10 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

10.12.15

Pan African Resources — Update 9 December 2015

thematic

Consumer

05.10.22

IPO apocalypse

thematic

TMT

10.08.22

ESG, moving beyond the box tick

thematic

Metals & Mining

27.04.22

Five (more) things every investor should know about lithium and Lepidico

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21.03.22

Decarbonisation – A potential opportunity for aluminium producers

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13.12.21

The PGM markets – Outlook and price forecasts

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16.05.19

Alliance Mineral Assets secures strategic investment from Galaxy and Jiangxi

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24.04.19

Piedmont Lithium increases its mineral resource estimate by 21%

thematic

Metals & Mining

22.01.19

Gold stars and black holes

thematic

Metals & Mining

06.02.15

Mining sector report: Gold: The value of gold and other metals

thematic

Energy & Resources

04.03.14

ASX Spotlight Conference – London, 6 March 2014

thematic

Metals & Mining

26.02.14

Making a case for uranium: Life after Fukushima

thematic

Metals & Mining

28.01.14

Indaba special, 2014

thematic

Energy & Resources

01.03.13

ASX Small to Mid Caps Conference – London, 7 March 2013

thematic

Energy & Resources

28.02.13

Asia-Pacific resources quarterly: February 2013 edition

thematic

Metals & Mining

01.02.13

Indaba special, 2013

thematic

Metals & Mining

02.10.12

Edison mining quarterly: October 2012

thematic

Metals & Mining

14.09.12

Mining catalyst: China’s new stimulus

thematic

Energy & Resources

20.08.12

Asia-Pacific resources quarterly: August edition

thematic

Energy & Resources

10.05.12

Asia-Pacific resources quarterly

thematic

Metals & Mining

25.04.12

Edison mining quarterly: April 2012

thematic

Metals & Mining

16.12.11

Macro Outlook – Price weakness on the cards

thematic

Metals & Mining

07.10.11

Indium and gallium overview

thematic

Metals & Mining

13.06.11

Switzerland: Global Resources Investing Conference