Pan African Resources Beats H124 Gold Output Guidance

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources

Anticipating a happy valentine

H124 production update

Metals and mining

26 January 2024

Price	17.22p
Market cap	£330m
ZAR23.6501/£, ZAR18.7240/US$, US$1.2633/£
Net debt (US$m) at end-June 2023		22.1

Shares in issue		1,916.5m
Free float		85%
Code		PAF

Primary exchanges		AIM/JSE
Secondary exchanges	Level 1 ADR, OTCQX Best Market and A2X

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	2.1	10.1	(7.2)
Rel (local)	4.4	6.4	(4.3)

52-week high/low

20.2p

12.0p

Business description

Pan African Resources has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

Next events

Site visits	2–3 February 2024
H124 results	14 February 2024
FY24 results	September 2024
Mintails first production		Late 2024

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

mining@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

Pan African Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) production update of 22 January revealed H124 production of 98,458oz gold, compared with prior guidance of 94,000–98,000oz, Edison’s expectation of 96,000oz and a figure of 92,307oz in H123. For the moment, we have left our financial forecasts for H124 unchanged, seeing roughly equally balanced upside and downside risks to our estimates pending actual results on 14 February. However, we note that the gold price is currently trading almost US$200/oz above our assumed H224 level.

Year end	Revenue (US$m)	PBT* (US$m)	EPS* (c)	DPS (c)	P/E (x)	Yield (%)
06/22	376.4	117.2	4.44	1.04	4.9	4.8
06/23	321.6	92.9	3.54	0.96	6.1	4.4
06/24e	367.4	135.4	5.31	0.96	4.1	4.4
06/25e	406.7	150.4	6.00	0.96	3.6	4.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Mogale continuing on time and within budget

At the same time as announcing its production update, PAF reported that significant progress has been made with its new tailings retreatment plant at Mogale, with project construction progressing on time and within budget and commissioning still on track for the latter half of CY24. As such, we are continuing to forecast that PAF’s production will reach c 250koz per year in 2026.

Valuation: Steady at 42.27c (33.46p)

Given our unchanged expectations for H124 and FY24 ahead of interim results on 14 February, our core (absolute) valuation of Pan African has remained unchanged at 42.27c (33.46p), based on projects either sanctioned or already in production. This valuation rises by a further 20.77–25.79c if other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) ratio of 8.4x in the period FY10–23 is applied to our FY24 and FY25 forecasts, it implies a value of 35.29p in FY24, followed by 39.82p in FY25. As such, PAF’s current share price of 17.22p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS falling to 2.59c per share (cf 5.31c/share and 6.00c/share forecast for FY24 and FY25, respectively). In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 97% of commonly used valuation measures regardless of whether Edison or consensus forecasts are used. Performing a relative valuation analysis, PAF’s peers’ ratings imply a comparable valuation for PAF of 51.04c based on our year one EPS estimate and one of 43.90c based on our year two EPS estimate. Separately, we estimate that PAF has the 13th highest dividend yield of the 62 precious metals mining companies expected to pay dividends to shareholders in the next 12 months, globally. Finally, we calculate that its enterprise value equates to just US$11.36 per resource ounce of gold (ie on a par with most cash consuming junior exploration companies, rather than reflecting it as a profitable, cash-flow positive, multi-asset producer).

H124 production

On 22 January, Pan African provided the market with an operational update for the half year ended December 2023. Highlights of the update are as follows:

■

Production of 98,458oz in the period outperformed prior expectations of 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123) by 0.5–4.7%. Within that:

•

Barberton Mines’ production was 36,779oz compared with 37,000–38,000oz expected – a variation of -0.6% to -3.2%, albeit the implementation of continuous operations has contributed to increases in mined tonnage and grade relative to the prior reporting period (when output was 32,022oz).

•

Evander Mines’ underground production was 21,307oz compared with 20,000–21,000oz expected – a variation of +1.5–6.5% as the ramping up of mining operations at 24 Level successfully replaced the depletion of 8 Shaft pillar ore resources, consistent with EGM’s mine plan. In the meantime, equipping the ventilation shaft to hoist ore and waste from 24 to 26 Levels remains on track for commissioning in Q1 CY24.

•

Elikhulu production of 28,106oz compared with 27,000–28,000oz expected – a variation of +0.4–4.1% – as a result of improved metallurgical recoveries.

•

Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project (BTRP) production of 9,864oz compared with 8,000–9,000oz anticipated – a variation of +9.6–23.3%.

•

Evander surface sources production of 2,401oz compared with 2,000oz expected – a variation of +20.0%.

A summary of these production figures relative to both historical results and our prior expectations is as follows:

Exhibit 1: Pan African production, H220–H224e (oz)

Operation	H220	H121	H221	H122	H222	H123	H223	FY23	H124e	H124a	Variation (%)	H224e (prior)	FY24e (prior)
Barberton UG*	31,392	42,350	42,476	39,991	35,747	32,022	32,564	64,586	37,500	36,779	-1.9	36,500	74,000
BTRP*	9,516	10,004	8,235	9,126	10,434	10,012	9,863	19,875	8,500	9,864	+16.0	6,500	15,000
Barberton	40,908	52,354	50,711	49,117	46,181	42,034	42,427	84,461	46,000	46,643	+1.4	43,000	89,000
Evander UG	9,117	12,607	23,409	27,312	21,538	19,173	10,359	29,532	20,500	21,307	+3.9	27,225	47,725
Evander surface	6,176	6,560	4,677	5,756	3,564	5,270	5,373	10,643	2,000	2,401	+20.0	1,000	3,000
Evander	15,293	19,169	28,086	33,068	25,102	24,443	15,732	40,175	22,500	23,708	+5.4	28,225	50,725
Elikhulu	30,315	26,863	24,596	25,900	26,320	25,830	24,743	50,573	27,500	28,106	+2.2	22,500	50,000
Total	86,516	98,386	103,391	108,085	97,603	92,307	82,902	175,209	96,000	98,458	+2.6	93,725	189,725

Source: Edison Investment Research, Pan African Resources. Note: *Surface sources from Fairview mine included in BTRP production. Totals may not add up owing to rounding. UG, underground. BTRP, Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project.

In addition, the group reported:

■

An improvement in the total recordable injury frequency rate from 8.54 per million man hours in FY22 to 6.13 per million man hours.

■

An achieved gold price of US$1,961/oz (cf Edison’s prior forecast of US$1,940/oz).

■

That the Mogale Tailings Retreatment (MTR) project construction is proceeding on time and within budget, with commissioning still expected in the latter half of the 2024 calendar year.

■

That commissioning of further renewable energy generating capacity is on schedule.

Notwithstanding this H124 performance, PAF has left its FY24 production guidance unchanged at 180,000–190,000oz, albeit with the caveat that ‘revised guidance may be considered in due course’. However, Exhibit 1 demonstrates that FY24 production of 185,000oz in FY24 would require output of only 86,542oz in H224 and, while possible, appears conservative within the context of historical results.

At the same time, production costs in H124 were well managed, despite inflationary pressures, with the result that all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are expected to be approximately US$1,300/oz (at an average exchange rate of ZAR18.69/US$), which is below previous guidance of US$1,350/oz for the full year (at an assumed exchange rate of ZAR18.50/US$). Note that this compares with Edison’s (prior) AISC forecasts of US$1,222/oz in H124 and US$1,338/oz in H224 to give an average AISC of US$1,278/oz in FY24.

Our detailed financial forecasts at the time of our December update note were as shown in Exhibit 2, below, and we have decided to leave these unchanged ahead of actual H124 results, which are scheduled for release on 14 February.

Exhibit 2: Pan African P&L statement by half year (H220–FY24e)

US$000s*	H220	H121	H221	H122	H222	H123	H223	FY23	H124e	FY24e
Revenue	141,258	183,751	185,164	193,574	182,797	156,489	165,117	321,606	189,033	367,366
Cost of production	(71,956)	(98,245)	(110,570)	(108,368)	(118,077)	(99,282)	(99,508)	(198,790)	(99,726)	(197,963)
Depreciation	(10,977)	(12,741)	(19,333)	(13,268)	(13,160)	(11,122)	(9,277)	(20,399)	(9,611)	(26,533)
Mining profit	58,325	72,766	55,260	71,938	51,560	46,085	56,332	102,417	79,696	142,870
Other income/(expenses)	(27,720)	(6,704)	(6,115)	(7,711)	(2,117)	(3,610)	(3,737)	(7,347)	(7,189)	(12,327)
Loss in associate etc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Loss on disposals	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Impairments	(20)	0	0	0	(467)	0	0	0	0
Royalty costs	(266)	(2,404)	(1,050)	(1,316)	(780)	(468)	(495)	(963)	(5,325)	(2,926)
Net income before finance	30,319	63,657	48,096	62,910	48,197	42,007	52,100	94,107	67,183	127,617
Finance income	258	300	456	661	434	456	683	1,139
Finance costs	(5,587)	(3,946)	(3,729)	(1,945)	(3,381)	(3,464)	(6,228)	(9,692)
Net finance income	(5,329)	(3,646)	(3,273)	(1,285)	(2,946)	(3,008)	(5,545)	(8,553)	(2,272)	(4,557)
Profit before taxation	24,990	60,011	44,823	61,626	45,250	38,999	46,555	85,554	64,911	123,060
Taxation	(2,602)	(19,239)	(10,903)	(15,573)	(16,351)	(10,063)	(14,754)	(24,817)	(21,717)	(33,562)
Effective tax rate (%)	10.4	32.1	24.3	25.3	36.1	25.8	31.7	29.0	33.5	27.3
PAT (continuing ops)	22,388	40,773	33,920	46,053	28,899	28,936	31,801	60,737	43,194	89,497
Minority interest					(185)	(136)	(266)	(402)	0	0
Ditto (%)					(0.6)	(0.5)	(0.8)	(0.7)	0.0	0.0
Attributable profit					29,084	29,072	32,067	61,139	43,194	89,497

Headline earnings	22,416	40,772	33,919	46,053	29,551	29,072	31,392	60,464	43,194	89,497
Est. normalised headline earnings	50,136	47,476	40,034	53,764.1	31,668	32,682	35,129	67,811	50,383	101,825

EPS (c)	1.16	2.11	1.76	2.39	1.51	1.52	1.67	3.19	2.25	4.67
HEPS** (c)	1.16	2.11	1.76	2.39	1.54	1.52	1.63	3.15	2.25	4.67
Normalised HEPS (c)	2.60	2.46	2.08	2.79	1.65	1.71	1.83	3.54	2.63	5.31

Source: Pan African Resources, Edison Investment Research. Note: As reported basis. *Unless otherwise indicated. **HEPS, headline earnings per share (company adjusted basis).

In the light of Pan African’s production update however, we note the potential for the following variations/risks relative to our forecasts for H124:

■

2,458oz of additional gold production at a higher gold price worth, in aggregate, an additional US$6.9m to revenue in H124.

■

Indicated AISC of US$1,300/oz in H124 (cf Edison’s prior forecast of US$1,222/oz) worth negative US$7.7m to sustaining free cash flows (note that this and the potential variation in revenue approximately cancel one another out).

■

Royalty costs that are calculated by formula, but appear high within the context of historical royalty costs.

■

Net finance costs, which are calculated on the basis of the closing net debt balance at the end of the prior period and therefore may not fully reflect the increase in group net senior debt from US$18.9m to US$60.0m in H124. Note that we regard this increase as fully consistent with our net debt forecast for PAF of US$78.7m as at end-FY24 given a second half with no dividend payable (see Exhibit 8).

■

The effective tax rate, which is also calculated by formula, but which again appears high within the context of the historical effective tax rate experienced by PAF.

Beyond H124, our forecasts for H224 are likely to require adjustment for the gold price (currently a somewhat conservative US$1,822/oz assumed) – worth an additional c US$18.8m to revenue relative to the current spot price of gold in the second six-month period of FY24. Note that we will address this at the time of PAF’s interim results on 14 February.

Growth projects

PAF has two organic growth projects currently underway (namely the Mintails Soweto Cluster and the Evander 25 and 26 Level expansion project) and one more immediately in prospect (Royal Sheba). Beyond these, it has at least the Fairview sub-vertical shaft, Rolspruit, Poplar and Evander South assets also available for development.

Mintails

On 1 August 2023, PAF announced that all conditions precedent for its ZAR1.3bn senior debt facility, designated for funding the group’s Mintails project, had been fulfilled, thereby completing the full upfront funding package of ZAR2.5bn. Since then, PAF reports that significant progress has been made with the MTR plant at Mogale, with commissioning still on track for the latter half of CY24. Within that:

■

Project construction is reported to be progressing on time and within budget.

■

Foundations for all nine of the CIL tanks are now in place and the tower crane’s construction has been completed.

■

Environmental rehabilitation is ongoing, including the clean-up of historical spillages and pipelines, wetland remediation and removal of alien vegetation.

Evander 25 and 26 Level expansion project

Progress at Evander’s 24 to 26 Level underground expansion project remains on track, with the following notable achievements during H1241234HHH:

■

Construction of Phase 2 of the refrigeration plant on 24 Level at Evander’s 8 Shaft is currently at an advanced stage, with completion anticipated this financial year, as 25 Level mining operations commence.

■

Development to access 25 and 26 Level mining areas has commenced.

■

Equipping of the existing 17 Level underground ventilation shaft – with a hoisting capacity of up to 40,000tpm – is expected to be completed during FY24, improving efficiencies and eliminating the existing cumbersome conveyor system.

At the same time, dewatering of Evander’s 7 Shaft Egoli project is ongoing. Once dewatered to below 20 Level, reserve delineation drilling will commence to further define the ore pay-shoot and its grade variability.

BTRP life of mine extension and Royal Sheba

The remaining life of mine from the BTRP’s current tailings sources is estimated at three years, with a declining production profile over the last two years of its life. In the coming years, production at the BTRP is expected to be supplemented with ore from Barberton Mines’ Western Cross and Royal Sheba orebodies, where the extraction and processing of a 10,000t bulk sample was recently, and successfully, completed.

■

Preliminary optimisation work estimates an eight-year lifespan at Royal Sheba, with production of around 235,000oz of gold at an average mining grade of 3g/t over the life of mine, with the potential for further extensions as the orebody remains open at depth. First stoped ore is planned in 2025 at 5,000t per month, ramping up to 10,000t, 30,000t and 45,000t per month, every 12 months thereafter in line with a set lateral and vertical development schedule.

■

The Western Cross orebody at Sheba Mine is a lower-grade (3-4g/t) 10m wide free-milling orebody that is currently accessed via the Southwall Adit and forms part of the mine’s production profile. The orebody is amenable to bulk mining, similar to that planned at the Royal Sheba project, and will further supplement feed material to the BTRP.

Group production

In the wake of the company’s production update, our longer-term forecasts remain, to all intents and purposes, unchanged. As such, we are continuing to forecast that group production at PAF will reach c 250koz per year in 2026 and drive normalised HEPS beyond 6.00c per share and potentially as high as 9.00c per share (see Exhibit 4, below).

Exhibit 3: Estimated Pan African group gold production profile, FY18–29e

Source: Edison Investment Research, Pan African Resources

PAF absolute valuation

Given our unchanged expectations for H124 and FY24, our absolute valuation of Pan African (based on its existing four producing assets plus the Evander 25 and 26 Level project and Mogale) remains unchanged at 42.27c, based on the present value of the estimated maximum potential dividend stream payable to shareholders over the life of its mining operations (applying a 10% discount rate to US dollar dividends).

Exhibit 4: PAF estimated life of operations’ diluted EPS and (maximum potential*) DPS

Source: Pan African Resources, Edison Investment Research. Note: *From FY26. Excludes discretionary exploration investment.

Stated alternatively, based on our long-term dividend forecasts, we calculate that an investment in PAF’s shares at a price of 17.22p today (ex-dividend) offers investors a (real) internal rate of return of 23.0% per year in US dollar terms to at least the end of FY39.

Including its other growth projects and assets, our updated total valuation of PAF as a whole is provided in Exhibit 5, below.

Exhibit 5: PAF absolute valuation summary

Project	Current valuation (USc/share)	Previous valuation (USc/share)
Existing producing assets (including 24 Level and 25 and 26 Level and Mogale projects)	42.27	42.27
FY23 dividend	-	0.96
Fairview Sub-Vertical Shaft project	1.03	1.03
Royal Sheba (resource-based valuation)	0.64	0.64
Sub-total	43.94	44.91
EGM underground resource	0.22–5.24	0.22–5.24
Sub-total	44.16–49.18	45.13–50.15
Egoli	16.99	16.99
MSC	1.89	1.89
Total	63.04–68.06	64.01–69.03

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Numbers may not add up owing to rounding.

Historical relative and current peer group valuation

Historical relative valuation

Exhibit 6 below depicts PAF’s average share price in each of the financial years from FY10 to FY23 and compares this with HEPS in the same year. For FY24 and FY25, the current share price (17.22p) is compared with our forecast normalised HEPS for those years. As is apparent from the chart, PAF’s price to normalised HEPS ratios of 4.1x and 3.6x for FY24 and FY25, respectively, are at and below the bottom of the range of recent historical P/E ratios of 4.1–14.8x for the period FY10–23:

Exhibit 6: PAF historical price to normalised HEPS** ratio, FY10–25e

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Completed historical years calculated with respect to average share price within the year shown and normalised HEPS; zero normalisation assumed before 2016. **HEPS shown in pence prior to 2018 and US cents thereafter.

If PAF’s average year one price to normalised EPS ratio of 8.4x for the period FY10–23 is applied to our normalised earnings forecasts, it implies a share price for PAF of 35.29p in FY24, followed by one of 39.82p in FY25. Stated alternatively, PAF’s current share price of 17.22p, at prevailing foreign exchange rates, appears to be discounting FY24 and/or FY25 normalised HEPS falling to 2.59c per share, whereas we are forecasting it to rise, to 5.31c and 6.00c, respectively.

Relative peer group valuation

Simultaneously, PAF remains cheaper than its London- and South Africanlisted gold mining peers on at least 97% of comparable common valuation measures (35 out of 36 individual measures in the table below) regardless of whether Edison or consensus forecasts are used:

Exhibit 7: Comparative valuation of PAF with South African and London peers

Company	EV/EBITDA (x)		P/E (x)		Yield (%)
Company	Year 1	Year 2	Year 1	Year 2	Year 1	Year 2
AngloGold Ashanti	6.3	4.3	14.1	9.4	1.2	2.0
Gold Fields	5.8	4.8	14.0	10.4	2.7	3.5
Sibanye Stillwater	3.4	3.0	9.9	9.5	2.7	4.1
Harmony	4.5	3.7	7.9	6.3	1.2	2.3
Centamin	3.4	2.8	9.6	8.1	3.3	3.6
Endeavour Mining (consensus)	4.8	4.3	17.2	11.8	4.4	4.6
Average (excluding PAF)	4.7	3.8	12.1	9.2	2.6	3.3
PAF (Edison)	2.6	2.3	4.1	3.6	4.4	4.4
PAF (consensus)	3.1	2.7	5.8	4.6	4.0	6.9

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Consensus and peers priced at 25 January 2024.

Alternatively, applying PAF’s peer average year one P/E ratio of 12.1x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 5.31c per share for FY24 implies a share price for the company of 51.04p. Applying its peer average year two P/E ratio of 9.2x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 6.00c per share implies a share price of 43.90p.

Readers’ attention is also drawn to the decline evident in the market’s year one yield estimate for PAF, which appears to suggest that it believes the company will cut its dividend in FY24 (or that the rand will fall very sharply versus the US dollar, but that this will otherwise not be reflected in the company’s results), which we regard as highly unlikely, except in extenuating circumstances.

Exhibit 8: Financial summary

	US$'000s	2022	2023	2024e	2025e
Year end 30 June		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue		376,371	321,606	367,366	406,673
Cost of sales		(226,445)	(198,790)	(197,963)	(212,896)
Gross profit		149,926	122,816	169,404	193,777
EBITDA		147,830	121,853	166,477	189,687
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)		121,402	101,454	139,944	157,457
Intangible amortisation		0	0	0	0
Exceptionals		(10,295)	(7,347)	(12,327)	(6,622)
Other		0	0	0	0
Operating profit		111,107	94,107	127,617	150,835
Net interest		(4,231)	(8,553)	(4,557)	(7,085)
Profit Before Tax (norm)		117,171	92,901	135,387	150,372
Profit before tax (FRS 3)		106,876	85,554	123,060	143,750
Tax		(31,924)	(24,817)	(33,562)	(35,459)
Profit after tax (norm)		85,247	68,084	101,825	114,913
Profit after tax (FRS 3)		74,952	60,737	89,497	108,291

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)		1,926.1	1,916.5	1,916.5	1,916.5
EPS - normalised (c)		4.44	3.54	5.31	6.00
EPS - FRS 3 (c)		3.90	3.19	4.67	5.65
Dividend per share (c)		1.04	0.96	0.96	0.96

Gross margin (%)		39.8	38.2	46.1	47.6
EBITDA margin (%)		39.3	37.9	45.3	46.6
Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%)		32.3	31.5	38.1	38.7

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed assets		401,139	439,676	562,677	556,237
Intangible assets		44,210	44,429	46,614	48,807
Tangible assets		355,802	395,247	516,063	507,430
Investments		1,127	0	0	0
Current assets		55,953	61,263	40,355	149,310
Stocks		9,977	9,567	12,255	13,565
Debtors		17,546	15,182	26,188	28,989
Cash		26,993	34,771	169	105,013
Current liabilities		(58,989)	(77,386)	(85,735)	(104,480)
Creditors		(57,117)	(65,884)	(74,233)	(97,348)
Short-term borrowings		(1,872)	(11,502)	(11,502)	(7,132)
Long-term liabilities		(103,494)	(128,957)	(151,627)	(145,532)
Long-term borrowings		(37,088)	(45,334)	(67,389)	(60,268)
Other long-term liabilities		(66,406)	(83,623)	(84,238)	(85,264)
Net assets		294,609	294,596	365,669	455,536

CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow		142,879	132,941	117,833	174,860
Net Interest		(2,794)	(5,121)	(4,557)	(7,085)
Tax		(8,520)	(7,722)	(9,885)	(14,346)
Capex		(81,951)	(109,952)	(149,534)	(25,790)
Acquisitions/disposals		563	(2,779)	0	0
Financing		(3,222)	0	0	0
Dividends		(21,559)	(19,975)	(21,200)	(18,424)
Net cash flow		25,396	(12,608)	(67,343)	109,215
Opening net debt/(cash)		23,553	11,967	22,065	78,722
Exchange rate movements		(4,401)	(4,481)	0	0
Other		(9,409)	6,991	10,686	7,121
Closing net debt/(cash)		11,967	22,065	78,722	(37,614)

Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Pan African Resources and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Pan African Resources. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Australia

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

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United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

Australia

New Zealand

United Kingdom

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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