Gold stars and black holes

In Edison’s latest annual global mining sector report, Gold Stars and Black Holes – Analysing the Discount: from Resource to Sanction, we analyse how differentiated in-situ values for mineral resources across all the major equity markets have evolved, and how equity valuations then increase (or not) as projects are developed through to sanction. The report concludes that equity markets are generally supportive of junior exploration companies (with some key exceptions where demand is uncertain) and markets in general appear to be somewhat less risk averse than they have been in previous years. In contrast, the valuation challenges of early stage development companies first identified in our 2017 global sector report remain and if anything equity markets have become more difficult for junior development companies to navigate. Finally, for the first time Edison has used its extensive database to derive potential screening tools for investors to quickly derive expected equity valuations for a wide range of potential mining opportunities based on net present value grade, IRR, size, jurisdiction, discount rate and product.

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