Impact Healthcare REIT — Successful turnaround

Care REIT (LSE: CRT)

Last close As at 12/12/2024

GBP0.84

1.80 (2.19%)

Market capitalisation

GBP341m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Impact Healthcare REIT — Successful turnaround

Impact Healthcare REIT has completed the transfer of four homes located in Scotland to a new tenant. As a result, all of the seven homes that have been operating on an intermediate basis (as part of a turnaround plan) have now been transferred to experienced, long-term operators. The resumption of rental payments from all seven assets will provide a significant uplift to cash rental income, the basis for dividend decisions. Under the new operators, the assets also provide additional and accretive asset management opportunities.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Impact Healthcare REIT

Successful turnaround

25 September 2024

Price

91p

Market cap

£376m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2024

180.2

Net LTV at 30 June 2024

28.3%

Shares in issue

414.4m

Free float

90%

Code

IHR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Impact Healthcare REIT invests in a diversified portfolio of UK residential and nursing care homes, let on long leases to high-quality operators. It aims to provide shareholders with attractive and sustainable returns, primarily in the form of dividends, underpinned by structural growth in demand for care.

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Impact Healthcare REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Impact Healthcare REIT has completed the transfer of four homes located in Scotland to a new tenant. As a result, all of the seven homes that have been operating on an intermediate basis (as part of a turnaround plan) have now been transferred to experienced, long-term operators. The resumption of rental payments from all seven assets will provide a significant uplift to cash rental income, the basis for dividend decisions. Under the new operators, the assets also provide additional and accretive asset management opportunities.

Transfer of assets

Year end

Rental
income (£m)

Adjusted earnings* (£m)

Adjusted
EPS* (p)

NAV**/
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/23

53.1

34.5

8.3

115.0

6.77

0.74

8.0

06/24e

54.6

35.7

8.6

119.9

6.95

0.71

8.2

06/25e

58.0

39.2

9.4

123.9

7.20

0.69

8.5

06/26e

60.8

41.2

10.0

127.9

7.50

0.67

8.8

Note: *EPRA earnings exclude fair value movements on properties and interest rate derivatives. **EPRA net tangible assets.

Impact’s only problem tenant since listing remains Silverline, which ran into financial difficulties in early 2023. Other than a brief drop in H123 (to 98%), rent collection has been consistently 100%. Rent cover, a key measure of the affordability of rents to tenants, is at a record high 2.2x.

In June 2023, the seven homes that had been operated by Silverline, with annual rents of £1.6m, were swiftly transferred to Melrose Holdings (MHL), which has a track record of successful turnaround. Under the intermediate stewardship of MHL, the performance of the homes improved to the point that all seven have now been transitioned to new long-term operators in just 15 months.

Three homes located in Bradford were transferred to We Care in August and the other four assets, in and around Glasgow, have now been transferred to Fulcrum Care. Impact notes that Fulcrum is experienced at managing complex care home turnaround strategies and brings a wealth of operational experience.

Both We Care and Fulcrum are new tenants to the group and further increase tenant diversification. There are now 15 tenants (including the NHS).

Impact has provided Fulcrum with support to ensure the homes build on their improved performance and achieve their full potential. This includes a £0.3m lease incentive and an interest-bearing short-term working capital facility of £0.45m at a cost of 10% pa. The lease incentive will be fully recovered over the life of the leases. Rent payments will recommence on 1 November. Impact also expects to invest a further £0.5m of capex across the four homes, which, like other asset management projects, will be reflected in increased rents and will be accretive to shareholder value. Rental payments will recommence on 1 November 2024, which is earlier than we had assumed.

Like Fulcrum, We Care also has significant experience with turnaround homes, including in the Bradford submarket, and is a well-established operator with over 30 homes. The experience of these operators gives confidence in the future performance of all seven assets.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Impact Healthcare REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Impact Healthcare REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Impact Healthcare REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Impact Healthcare REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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