Last close As at 29/09/2026
GBP0.89
▲ 1.00 (1.14%)
Market capitalisation
GBP145m
Research: Real Estate
Regional REIT (RGL) delivered a robust performance in H126 and made good strategic progress against a very challenging economic and political background. New lettings, at a premium to ERV, offset lease breaks and maturities, borrowings were further reduced, with asset sales progressing in line with targets, and portfolio quality continued to improve. Off a lower base of rental income, EPRA earnings were lower despite reduced administrative and finance costs. Refinancing is progressing well, but, following market rate movements, we expect the costs to be higher and have reduced forecasts for earnings and the rate of DPS growth.
| Year end | EPRA earnings (£m) | EPRA EPS (p) | NAV/share (£) | DPS (p) | Yield (%) | P/NAV (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/24 | 22.7 | 19.2 | 2.10 | 7.80 | 8.9 | 0.42 |
| 12/25e | 19.1 | 11.8 | 1.94 | 10.00 | 11.4 | 0.45 |
| 12/26e | 14.9 | 9.2 | 1.90 | 8.00 | 9.1 | 0.46 |
| 12/27e | 15.0 | 9.2 | 1.94 | 8.20 | 9.3 | 0.45 |
H126 financial performance was in line with market expectations and company guidance, and reflected the strategic transition. While the progress made is yet to be reflected in EPRA earnings, sales are on track to reach more than £55m for the year, portfolio quality is improving, and rent levels are increasing. EPRA earnings were £6.8m (H125: £8.5m) and EPRA EPS of 4.2p fully covered DPS of 4.0p, with the decline reflecting lower average occupancy, more than offsetting the positive impact of disposals on property costs and interest expense. The LTV ratio should end the year at c 35%, preparing the way for significant debt refinancing in H127. With no further maturities until into 2029, RGL will then have increased flexibility on sales and asset management initiatives to drive value and income. With interest rates having increased, we have reduced forecasts for EPRA EPS by 0.4p in FY26 and 0.7p in FY27 and slowed the pace of DPS growth
Occupier demand has remained robust, but leasing decisions are taking longer. Rents are increasing for good-quality office space in the right locations and RGL expects this tailwind to be maintained by a growing supply-demand imbalance. The company believes that the majority of the portfolio now meets occupier requirements or can be profitably enhanced to do so, providing significant potential to increase rental income and capital growth. The non-core or poor-quality assets, or where asset management plans are complete, are being sold, in some cases after value-enhancing repositioning for alternative use. While economic uncertainty weighs on the broad commercial property sector, expectations for the relative performance of offices have recently improved.
The FY26e yield is c 9%, and the shares are trading at a P/NAV of c 0.5x, well below peers on both measures. The upside from a successful execution of the strategy remains material, and signs of progress should support performance.
RGL’s strategy for repositioning its portfolio to a core of high-quality income-producing properties with targeted value-added opportunities and reducing gearing is explained in detail in our previous research and updated here.
Although the letting market remains challenging, underlying market supply-demand dynamics for well-located, high-quality office space continued to support market rental growth. RGL has significant company-specific opportunities to grow net rental income by letting vacant space and selling underperforming properties. Meanwhile, while structural changes in the office market in recent years have led to significant underperformance compared with the broader commercial property market, the sector delivered a positive total return in 2025 and year-to-date, with rents growing and capital values beginning to show signs of stabilising.
The key company specific elements of the investment case include:
H126 financial performance was broadly in line with market expectations and company guidance. The financial results reflect the strategic transition, with strategic progress yet to be reflected in EPRA earnings, although borrowing is falling, portfolio quality is improving, and rents are increasing. We highlight the following:
We have made no material change to forecast operating earnings, before interest costs and valuation movements, but expect a larger increase in net finance expense than previously, reflecting the recent increase in market interest rates, earlier refinancing than previously assumed (see below), and higher non-cash loan amortisation fees. This has a noticeable impact on EPRA earnings.
We expect gross rental income and direct property costs to continue to decline with disposals and, reflecting the uncertain economic environment, assume no material benefit from core occupancy growth. This is the key area of upside to forecasts. The company’s debt refinancing plans and the expected impact on borrowing costs are shown in detail below.
We have trimmed expected DPS growth, allowing RGL to maintain a good level of DPS cover and retain cash for portfolio reinvestment. The company nonetheless intends to remain compliant with REIT requirements, including a 90% distribution of earnings from property rental activity. Among other differences, compared with EPRA earnings, property rental earnings are currently reduced by capital investment tax allowance.
We have allowed for some modest capital growth, reflecting a stabilisation of yields and mostly improving core occupancy. Although not forecast, we see continuing potential for ‘value-add’ investment to deliver additional gains over time.
With capital values increasing and debt repaid from property sales, we forecast a steady decline in LTV to around 30% by end-FY28.
RGL’s specific opportunities to grow net rental income by letting vacant space and selling underperforming properties are best illustrated by the segmental portfolio presentation. This comprises four portfolio categories, two of which represent properties that will be retained for the long term for income and capital growth (which we will call the retained assets, representing 84% of the end-FY26 total) and two that represent future disposals (which we will call the non-core or disposal assets).
Of the retained assets, core properties are already high quality and mostly occupied, whereas ‘capex-to-core’ properties are well-located assets that are subject to ongoing refurbishment to realise their full potential.
Among the disposal assets, ‘value-add’ properties have been identified as offering significant opportunities to add value by being positioned for alternative use. The strategic disposal assets are those where no such opportunity exists, or where asset management plans are mature, and these are likely to be sold more immediately, with capital redeployed for capex and debt reduction.
The categorisations are dynamic and properties move from one to another as asset plans evolve. Nor is it the case that properties are only sold from the value-add/strategic disposal segments.
Within the assets to be retained, there is a strong opportunity to grow income by increasing occupancy, particularly for ‘capex-to-core’ assets when refurbishments complete. Capex is enhancing rental prospects, demonstrated by average rents achieved on new lettings running ahead of ERV, and RGL expects market rents for good-quality assets will continue to increase. Moreover, leasing vacant space does not just increase gross rental income but also reduces void costs. We estimate that on average across the portfolio, for every £100 of additional gross rent, void costs may fall by around £80, with £180 dropping through to net rental income.
Disposals from the value-add and strategic sales segments will reduce gross rental income and, to a lesser extent, net rental income. However, the blended net initial yield is well below the cost of borrowing and would therefore be earnings enhancing. In addition, the value-add strategy is aimed at enhancing disposal values and should additionally be a source of capital growth.
During H126, RGL completed 12 disposals for an aggregate £21.5m (before costs) at a blended net initial yield of 5.4%, or 9.8% excluding vacant properties. The yields indicate a broadly equal split of proceeds between vacant and occupied/part-occupied assets. RGL has since completed the disposal of two properties, with blended occupancy of 37%, for an aggregate £4.3m (before costs). The company is on track to complete sales of more than £55m for the year (FY25: £51m), in line with its previous target of £50–60m. There are currently 11 assets where sales are contracted, under offer or in negotiations, with an aggregate value of £32m. During H126, disposal proceeds funded a £22m reduction in gross borrowings to £244m and should deliver further de-gearing in H2.
Most (80%) of the H126 disposals were, as expected, from the non-core segments but there were sales of £4.3m from the core portfolio, where RGL has taken an opportunistic approach to near-term debt reduction ahead of the refinancing. We expect this opportunistic and flexible approach to continue in H226 and note that a significant share (c 50%) of the H226 sales pipeline is from the core segment. RGL cites a particular example of a property where the lease will expire in 15 months, and where the leasing market is expected to remain weak, providing an immediate opportunity to both de-risk future income and reduce borrowing.
RGL expects disposals to continue post-refinancing but to be very much focused on non-core assets.
Despite the challenging environment, inhibiting occupiers from making long-term commitments, during H126, RGL secured 26 new lettings, providing £1.9m of annual rental income, including the previously reported letting of two properties in Nottingham, providing £1.1m of annual rental income and saving £0.7m in annualised void costs. Additionally, the tenant has undertaken to carry out c £5m of improvement works. The original business plan had envisaged preparing the property for eventual sale, but the combination of a 20-year lease and tenant-funded improvements has changed that plan.
RGL says that further new lettings and lease renewals have been concluded since the period end.
For the H126 presentation, RGL has intentionally not updated for transfers within the segments. This has the advantage of making it easier to compare segment metrics (eg occupancy, rent roll) from one period to the next, but it does make it more difficult to use the data as a guide to future, optimised portfolio potential. Most notably, the newly let Nottingham properties continue to be shown within the value-add segment of the portfolio, although they are now considered a core income-generating asset and as a result, the value-add segment saw a welcome increase in rent roll and valuation.
The H126 data nonetheless continue to provide an indication of the potential uplift from continuing portfolio optimisation.
For the assets to be retained, with an EPRA occupancy rate of 84%, there is material scope to increase occupancy towards a realistic, stable c 90% over time, and the upside potential is greater than this implies. The EPRA occupancy calculation excludes the assets that are currently under refurbishment such that effective occupancy, based on the total amount of all space that is let, is lower than the EPRA rate and sits in the high 60% range according to management.
The H226 data indicate annual rental income on the £90m of assets in the value-add and strategic sale segments to be c £1.7m. In reality, it is much lower than this if Nottingham is excluded. As the market rate of det moves up to c 6%, there is much to be saved by disposing of the non-core assets and redeploying the capital.
For good-quality space, with the right environmental credentials, in the right location, tenants have been willing to pay increasing rents, and the majority of RGL’s office assets already meet the standards required by tenants or post refurbishment will do so. Investment in the portfolio, combined with sales of lower-quality assets, is reflected in the portfolio’s sustainability metrics, which have strengthened significantly over the past three years, in step with occupier demand for energy-efficient properties. The proportion of the portfolio rated EPC A or B has reached 61%, with a further 26% rated B, for which RGL has identified plans for improvement. The remaining properties rated below C will be sold.
RGL recently indicated that the regional office market average may be only c 25% B-rated or better and this is supported by British Property Federation data that suggest just 19% of all commercial buildings in seven major regional locations meet this standard. The company expects this to provide a strong tailwind to rental growth.
RGL says that new prime space coming to market now, in projects started a few years
ago, is commanding rents of £40–
45/sq ft, below the £50–55/sq ft required by landlords to make new projects viable,
and well ahead of the c £20–30/sq ft at which more secondary Grade A (EPC A and B)
space is available. With little in the way of new development starts likely until
rents increase, and completions even further off, the company expects this gap to
close with a positive impact on its portfolio, about 60% of which is Grade A (effectively
the core assets), with average rents of c £15/sq ft and increasing. RGL says that
new lettings are well ahead of this average and in most cases well over £20/sq ft.
On average, new lettings were at a 2% premium to ERV.
H126 gross borrowing was £244m, net borrowing was £204m and LTV was 38.5%, compared with 40.4% at end-FY25. Debt costs were all hedged at an average rate of 3.4% with an average duration of 2.1 years. Continuing debt reduction has put RGL in a strong position ahead of upcoming debt maturities, but a rebasing of financing costs towards market rates is inevitable.
The company is in early discussions with lenders about the debt facilities maturing in 2027 and 2028 and is targeting refinancing the £104m Scottish Widows/Aviva facility and £29m Scottish Widows facility into one new fixed-rate loan of longer duration. We have assumed that the new facility, for £100m, comes into place during H127, slightly earlier than previously assumed, at a fixed cost of 6.5% per year.
The maturity of the syndicate facility with RBS, Bank of Scotland, and Barclays was extended for three years in December 2025. The first maturity date is December 2028 with two one-year extension options, subject to lender approval. The original interest rate hedge, fixing SONIA at 1.0%, remained in place until August 2026 and new hedging arrangements, at market rates, will be entered into. We expect this to increase the total hedged cost of the loan to c 6.0%.
The Santander facility will not mature until June 2029, with a fixed to maturity at 3.6%, so that post the H127 refinancing RGL will have more flexibility on sales and asset management initiatives to drive value and income.
At end-H126, the weighted average cost of debt was 3.4%, and we expect this to increase to 3.9% by end-FY26 and c 6.0% by end-FY27.
RGL’s shares have a prospective yield of c 9%, based on management’s FY26 DPS target of 8.0p, which we expect to be well covered. The discount to H126 NAV is c 50%. Among the selected peer group shown below (on a trailing basis), comprising a mix of REITs with varying degrees of exposure to the office sector, regional properties and development/refurbishment, RGL offers by far the highest yield, with the strongest dividend cover. A successful execution of RGL’s strategy, as set out above, suggests significant upside potential, particularly given the low base of expectations. RGL’s share price has underperformed the selected peer group over the past year, although given its high yield, the gap is narrower on a total return basis.
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Research: Healthcare
OSE has reported cash of €11.1m at 30 June 2026, versus €17.0m at 31 March, and reiterated its runway through December 2026 following its May bridge equity financing. The company is seeking further funding and has deferred publication of its full H126 financial statements while those efforts are ongoing. Lusvertikimab remains the lead internal immunology and inflammation opportunity: OSE plans to submit an application by end-2026 for a healthy volunteer study of its subcutaneous formulation, with results expected by mid-2027, and sees scope to begin Phase II testing of the current intravenous (IV) formulation in chronic pouchitis in 2027. Tedopi’s Phase III ARTEMIA study remains on track to complete enrolment by year-end, while its futility analysis has moved to early 2027 (from Q326) as deaths have accrued more slowly than expected. We note that financing is a top near-term priority, required to bridge the gap to these catalysts.