Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Research: Industrials
AAC Clyde Space’s first quarter demonstrated a solid start to the year, within the normal volatility of this long lead time business. Key for investors is the build-out of low Earth orbit constellations, particularly AAC’s own satellites, where it can then commercialise the data to provide a high-margin, long-term revenue stream. The second half of 2025 and early 2026 is expected to include key launches to support this strategy.
| Year end | Revenue (SEKm) | PBT (SEKm) | EPS (SEK) | DPS (SEK) | P/E (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/23 | 276.6 | (19.3) | (5.31) | 0.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/24 | 352.9 | 18.7 | 3.02 | 0.00 | 24.3 | N/A |
| 12/25e | 456.4 | 36.1 | 5.99 | 0.00 | 12.3 | N/A |
| 12/26e | 644.3 | 60.6 | 10.10 | 0.00 | 7.3 | N/A |
Net sales increased by 3.6% to SEK74.0m, including a SEK2.3m contribution from Spacemetric, which was acquired in H224. The gross margin increased from 56% to 69%, primarily due to better performance of the Missions segment, which benefited from key delivery milestones. Headline EBITDA was SEK11.9m, with a margin of 16.1%. Adjusting for insurance payouts of SEK3.5m (SEK12.6m in Q124) relating to the underperforming satellite, underlying EBITDA was SEK8.4m, compared to break-even in Q124. There was an EBIT loss of SEK2.5m and a PBT loss of SEK11.8m. Cash from operations after adjusting factors was SEK1.4m, with a working capital outflow of SEK26.9m reflecting normal seasonality. After capex and financing, cash outflow was SEK38.3m. The group finished the quarter with cash of SEK21.6m and bank debt of SEK21.9m. The order book reduced from SEK541m at the end of FY24 to SEK482m, although significant new contract awards have already been announced in Q2.
The current global machinations are creating a degree of uncertainty, but management believes they also offer potential positives, driving demand for more data services and a focus on European space capabilities. The first quarter was in line with expectations and management has not changed guidance for FY25 for double-digit growth, with positive EBITDA and cash flow. Our forecasts are unchanged.
Our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation (using a discount rate of 12% and a long-term growth rate of 2%) of SEK250 per share is unchanged, as detailed in our FY24 results note.
Net sales increased by 3.6% to SEK74.0m, which was broadly flat taking into account the SEK2.3m contribution from Spacemetric (acquired in H224). Total income, which includes own work capitalised and other income, declined by 3% to SEK94.7m, affected by the removal of SEK9.6m in unfulfilled earnouts for the Omnisys Instruments acquisition and insurance payouts of SEK3.5m (SEK12.6m in Q124). The gross margin increased to 69% from 56%, primarily due to better performance of the Missions segment, which benefited from delivery milestones. Personnel costs increased by 13%, reflecting accelerated investment with 214 employees at the end of the period, up from 190 at the end of Q124 and 199 at the end of FY24. EBITDA was SEK11.9m with a margin of 16.1%. Adjusting for the insurance payouts relating to the underperforming satellite of SEK3.5m against SEK12.6m in Q124, underlying EBITDA was SEK8.4m against break-even in Q124. Depreciation/amortisation and impairment of assets amounted to SEK14.4m including SEK4.2m depreciation of surplus values from acquisitions. There was an EBIT loss of SEK2.5m and a PBT loss of SEK11.8m. Cash from operations after adjusting factors was SEK1.4m, with a working capital outflow of SEK26.9m reflecting normal seasonality. After capex and financing, cash outflow for what is normally a seasonally soft period was SEK38.3m. AAC ended the quarter with cash of SEK21.6m and bank debt of SEK21.9m. The company has SEK29.7m in total liquidity available.
The Data division’s net sales increased by 14.8% to SEK16.8m. Headline EBITDA was SEK3.3m, giving a margin of 19.5%. Adjusting for an insurance claim of SEK3.3m (SEK12.6m in Q124) suggests underlying EBITDA around break-even, only slightly down on the previous year. Development of the division is dependent on additional infrastructure capacity and data contracts, hence management is confident that the Sedna satellites and commencement of AIS data delivery will continue to drive positive growth (FY24 growth was 51%).
Missions division’s net sales increased by 38.1% to SEK27.1m. EBITDA improved strongly to SEK6.3m with a margin of 23.4% from a loss in the previous year. The business benefited from milestone payments in the period, the timing of which inevitably leads to volatility of results over shorter quarterly reporting time periods.
Products division’s net sales decreased by 21.0% to SEK37.8m. Headline EBITDA increased to SEK9.0m with a margin of 23.8%. However, adjusting for reversal of the unfulfilled earnouts of SEK9.6m attributable to the acquisition of Omnisys suggests broadly break-even EBITDA in the period. Management comments that this reflects a timing issue on product deliveries and expects the full year to produce a positive result.
Note that AAC has announced that it intends to merge the Missions and Products divisions to better align the business to customers and reduce costs.
Order intake in the period was a little softer with the backlog declining from SEK541m at the end of FY24 to SEK482m at the end of Q125, including SEK23m currency impact along with the normal volatility in the sector being heightened by current global events. Key order announcements including two since the end of the period.
Management guidance for FY25 is unchanged for ‘double-digit net sales growth, continued positive EBITDA and sustained positive cash flow from operating activities.’ Hence, there are no changes to our forecasts or valuation. Managements continue to focus on three key programmes:
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Research: Metals & Mining
Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered strong quarterly results, with higher commodity prices boosting revenues and lowering costs. Q125 EBITDA was US$330m, just 5% shy of the seasonally strongest Q4 number, as costs were markedly below and production was in line with quarterly guidance for both segments. The company maintained its FY25 operating outlook, which points to seasonally strong quarters ahead. PAAS also announced a proposed acquisition of MAG Silver (MAG), valuing the company at US$2.1bn. MAG owns 44% in a top-tier Juanicipio silver operation in Mexico. In this note, we provide an initial take on the transaction, while keeping our revised estimates and valuation of PAAS on a standalone basis.