Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Research: Industrials
A strong Q4 performance has enabled AAC to report record results in both revenues and EBITDA for FY24. Management expects further progress in FY25. Strategically, the business is well positioned within the low Earth orbit space sector, in particular for the provision of data & services as its own satellite constellation and capabilities continue to develop.
| Year end | Revenue (SEKm) | PBT (SEKm) | EPS (SEK) | DPS (SEK) | P/E (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/23 | 276.6 | (19.3) | (5.31) | 0.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 12/24 | 352.9 | 18.7 | 3.02 | 0.00 | 18.6 | N/A |
| 12/25e | 456.4 | 36.1 | 5.99 | 0.00 | 9.4 | N/A |
| 12/26e | 644.3 | 60.6 | 10.10 | 0.00 | 5.6 | N/A |
The group reported record FY24 results, with Q4 the stand-out quarter. Q4 sales increased 102% to SEK143m equating to 40.6% of annual sales with strong drop through leading to an EBITDA margin of 23.1%. Full year FY24 sales increased by 28% to SEK353m. EBITDA increased to SEK46.7m (including SEK2.6m of acquisition costs) from SEK1.0m in FY23. The EBITDA margin was 13.2%, up significantly from 0.4% in FY23. The FY24 EBIT loss was SEK4.0m, a significant improvement from the FY23 loss of SEK36.8m. Note FY24 included SEK9.1m of impairment and acquisition costs. The reported FY24 EPS loss of SEK1.0 was reduced from a loss of SEK8.7 in FY23. Gross cash at the year end was SEK49.7m with available liquidity of SEK70.8m.
The AAC Data & Services sales grew 51% with margins remaining strong at 47.1%, albeit down from 66.0% in FY23 reflecting additonal opex investment. AAC Missions sales increased by 293% to SEK114m and EBITDA turned positive to SEK1.7m. The AAC Products sales were down 2%, but profitability improved, generating EBITDA margins of 21.5% (from 16.5%) and EBITDA of SEK49.9m.
Management is guiding to ‘double-digit net sales growth, [and] continued positive EBITDA’ and FY25 has started strongly. However, reflecting the opening order position (SEK541m vs SEK620m) we have reduced our expectations for FY25. We have also introduced FY26 forecasts. For FY25, we forecast sales of SEK456m (from SEK600m, down 24%), EBITDA of SEK64.4m (from SEK75.0m, down 14%) and underlying PBT of SEK36.1m (from SEK44.5m, down 19%); and for FY26, sales of SEK644m, EBITDA of SEK87.6m and underlying PBT of SEK60.6m.
Our DCF-based valuation (discount rate of 12% and long-term growth rate of 2%) gives a valuation of SEK250/share. While this is down from our previous valuation of SEK278/share, as we have been a little more cautious on the short-term numbers, it highlights the significant inherent value within the business.
Q4 sales increased 102% to SEK143m, equating to 40.6% of annual sales. Q4 EBITDA was SEK33m, a margin of 23.1%. Full year 2024 sales increased by 28% to SEK353m, from SEK277m in FY23. EBITDA increased significantly with a margin of 13.2%, up on 0.4% in FY23 and above the target range of 5–10%. The gross margin remains strong at 63.7%, with positive drop through to the bottom line from the additional revenue. The EBIT loss was SEK4.0m, a significant improvement from FY23’s loss of SEK36.8m. Excluding SEK6.5m of impairment from the loss of a satellite and SEK2.6m of acquisition costs, EBIT was positive at SEK5.1m. The reported EPS loss of SEK1.0 was an improvement from the loss of SEK8.7 in FY23. Note that our estimate of underlying EPS before all exceptional items and impairments comes to positive SEK3.00 per share, albeit we note that the full detailed financials are yet to be published. Gross cash at the year end was SEK49.7m and net cash SEK40.8m. Management reported available liquidity of SEK70.8m, which management stated is more than sufficient for FY25 expectations.
AAC Data & Services sales grew 51% in FY24, with the EBITDA margin remaining strong at 47.1%. Developing these high-margin, longer-term service revenues remain a key strategy for the group. Strategic development has seen AAC’s constellation expand to eight satellites with a further two satellites currently being commissioned. Also, we note the launch of the Earth observation satellite, which adds additional capabilities.
AAC Missions increased sales by 293% to SEK114m and moved into positive EBITDA in the period. AAC Missions provides turnkey solutions, hence the higher lumpiness and lower returns, but is key to the overall strategy of the group. Q4 sales were particularly strong at SEK52m and EBITDA was SEK7.4m, enabling the division to post a positive full year EBITDA of SEK1.7m.
AAC Products sales were flat (down 2%) with good profitability and EBITDA margin up to 21.5%, a positive result particularly given the issue that affected Q2. Along with the operational improvements, the key highlight in the year was the acquisition of Spacemetric, providing additional capabilities within the space data-as-a-service (SDaaS) activities and the testing of two-way VHF data exchange system (VDES) to enhance ship-to-land communications.
The order book was stable over most of 2024, but declined in Q4, partially reflecting the strong sales delivered in the final quarter, to finish the year at SEK541m, a 14% reduction. Major new contract announcements in Q424 and into Q125 provide management with confidence. These include the following, with the European Space Agency contract offering particular upside:
Management guidance for FY25 is for ‘double-digit net sales growth, continued positive EBITDA, and sustained positive cash flow from operating activities’. The group will also benefit from a full 12-month contribution from Spacemetric, acquired in November 2024. We have taken a somewhat more cautious view of the top line to reflect the order book at the end of FY24, but also a more positive view on profitability reflecting the strong financials evident in FY24, in particular in Q4.
AAC remains a longer-term investment, reflecting its strategy to invest, particularly in its satellite constellation and SDaaS activities. Hence, we see a discounted cash flow (DCF) as the most appropriate valuation tool, rather than short-term, profit-based metrics. Our DCF is based on forecasts out to 2030 followed by a terminal growth rate. The table below highlights our DCF relative to the cost of capital, effectively the cost of equity, and the long-term, post 2030, growth rate.
We continue to use a discount rate of 12% and a long-term growth rate of 2%. This gives a valuation of SEK250 a share. While this is down from our previous valuation of SEK278 a share, as we have been a little more cautious on the short-term numbers, it also highlights the significant inherent value potential within the business.
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Research: Metals & Mining
Canyon Resources is an ASX-listed bauxite developer advancing its 100%-owned Minim Martap project in Cameroon. Minim Martap is a large-scale, high-grade, direct shipping ore bauxite deposit with a clear path to production. Having secured a mining licence and a significant portion of project funding, Canyon is gearing towards the initial production start in 2026, with subsequent ramp-up to full capacity once infrastructure upgrades are completed. This should allow it to capitalise on the favourable bauxite market fundamentals driven by strong underlying aluminium demand and supply constraints. We value Minim Martap at US$566m (A$877m) and see additional upside from the project’s large resource base.