Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Research: Consumer
bet-at-home (BAH) has reported a 1.3% increase in Q219 gross gaming revenues (GGR) to €33.9m, with a 25.5% EBITDA margin. Sports GGR was 7.5% lower (€13.8m), due to the lack of major sporting events, but e gaming GGR increased by 8.5% to €20.0m. As previously highlighted, H219 results will be affected by IP blocking in Switzerland and management has maintained guidance of €130–143m GGR and €29–33m EBITDA. Our estimates remain broadly unchanged, apart from a slightly higher FY19 EBITDA forecast, due to lower marketing spend. BAH trades at 10.3x EV/EBITDA and 13.4 x P/E for FY20e, with a 9.3% dividend yield.
Written by
bet-at-home |
Solid H119 underpins FY19 guidance |
Q219 results |
Travel & leisure |
30 July 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
bet-at-home is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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bet-at-home (BAH) has reported a 1.3% increase in Q219 gross gaming revenues (GGR) to €33.9m, with a 25.5% EBITDA margin. Sports GGR was 7.5% lower (€13.8m), due to the lack of major sporting events, but egaming GGR increased by 8.5% to €20.0m. As previously highlighted, H219 results will be affected by IP blocking in Switzerland and management has maintained guidance of €130–143m GGR and €29–33m EBITDA. Our estimates remain broadly unchanged, apart from a slightly higher FY19 EBITDA forecast, due to lower marketing spend. BAH trades at 10.3x EV/EBITDA and 13.4 x P/E for FY20e, with a 9.3% dividend yield.
Year end |
Revenue (GGR) (€m) |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
145.4 |
36.4 |
4.81 |
7.50 |
11.1 |
14.0 |
12/18 |
143.4 |
36.2 |
4.65 |
6.50 |
11.5 |
12.1 |
12/19e |
136.9 |
32.1 |
3.97 |
5.00 |
13.5 |
9.3 |
12/20e |
140.3 |
32.4 |
3.99 |
5.00 |
13.4 |
9.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Includes special dividends.
E-gaming GGR increases by 8.5%
Driven by an 8.5% increase in e-gaming GGR, BAH reported total Q219 GGR growth of 1.3% to €33.9m, with an EBITDA of €8.6m (vs €33.4m GGR and €1.7m EBITDA in Q218). This was sequentially lower than Q119 (at €37.2m GGR and €12.7m EBITDA). As expected, Q219 sports GGR declined by 7.5% vs the prior year, largely due to the high volumes from the FIFA World Cup in 2018. During the quarter, marketing costs of €8.5m represented 25% of GGR, which is at the low end of long-term trends (25–30%) due to the lack of any major tournaments. After the payment of the FY18 final dividend of €6.50 in May (€45.5m cash), net cash was €43.1m at 30 June 2019 (this excludes customer balances of €6.7m).
Swiss IP blocking to affect H219, as expected
On the back of a solid H119, management has reiterated FY19 guidance of €130–143m GGR and an EBITDA of €29–33m. This compares to €71.1m GGR and €21.3m EBITDA already achieved in H119 and therefore assumes a significant negative impact resulting from IP blocking in Switzerland (effective from July 2019). Pending further clarity on volumes, we are leaving our GGR estimates broadly unchanged. However, we have nudged our FY19 EBITDA forecast up from €31.6m to €32.1m, due to slightly lower marketing costs. We believe our estimates are conservative but note that the company continues to face regulatory uncertainty across many of its markets – please see our March initiation report for details.
Valuation: 9.3% FY20e dividend yield
BAH trades at 10.3x EV/EBITDA and 13.4x P/E for FY19e, which is towards the top end of the peer group, but its healthy net cash position and 9.3% forecast dividend yield are very attractive. In our view, a major catalyst for a re-rating would be concrete evidence of positive regulation in core markets, especially Germany (egaming in particular) and Austria.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Year end 31 December |
€m |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
|||
INCOME STATEMENT |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||||
Revenue (GGR) |
|
|
107.0 |
121.6 |
138.7 |
145.4 |
143.4 |
136.9 |
140.3 |
143.1 |
||
Cost of Sales |
(12.3) |
(21.3) |
(25.8) |
(27.6) |
(28.2) |
(25.8) |
(26.7) |
(27.2) |
||||
Net Gaming Revenue |
94.7 |
100.3 |
112.9 |
117.8 |
115.1 |
111.1 |
113.6 |
115.9 |
||||
EBITDA |
|
|
26.8 |
31.6 |
33.0 |
36.4 |
36.2 |
32.1 |
32.4 |
33.7 |
||
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
25.9 |
30.7 |
31.9 |
35.1 |
34.9 |
30.2 |
30.4 |
31.7 |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Exceptionals |
(0.1) |
0.1 |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Reported operating profit |
25.8 |
30.8 |
31.9 |
34.1 |
34.9 |
30.2 |
30.4 |
31.7 |
||||
Net Interest |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
||||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
27.5 |
32.9 |
34.1 |
36.6 |
35.0 |
30.3 |
30.4 |
31.8 |
||
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
27.5 |
32.9 |
34.1 |
35.7 |
35.0 |
30.3 |
30.4 |
31.8 |
||
Reported tax |
(1.8) |
(2.3) |
(3.1) |
(2.8) |
(2.4) |
(2.5) |
(2.4) |
(2.5) |
||||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
25.7 |
30.6 |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.6 |
27.8 |
28.0 |
29.2 |
||||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
25.6 |
30.7 |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
27.8 |
28.0 |
29.2 |
||||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Net income (normalised) |
25.7 |
30.6 |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.6 |
27.8 |
28.0 |
29.2 |
||||
Net income (reported) |
25.6 |
30.7 |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
27.8 |
28.0 |
29.2 |
||||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
||||
EPS - basic normalised (€) |
|
|
3.66 |
4.36 |
4.42 |
4.81 |
4.65 |
3.97 |
3.99 |
4.16 |
||
EPS - diluted normalised (€) |
|
|
3.66 |
4.36 |
4.42 |
4.81 |
4.65 |
3.97 |
3.99 |
4.16 |
||
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
3.65 |
4.37 |
4.42 |
4.68 |
4.65 |
3.97 |
3.99 |
4.16 |
||
Dividend (€) |
0.60 |
2.25 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
6.50 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
||||
Revenue growth (%) |
25.0 |
13.6 |
14.0 |
4.8 |
(1.4) |
(4.5) |
2.5 |
2.0 |
||||
Gross Margin (%) |
88.5 |
82.5 |
81.4 |
81.0 |
80.3 |
81.2 |
81.0 |
81.0 |
||||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
25.0 |
26.0 |
23.8 |
25.0 |
25.3 |
23.5 |
23.1 |
23.5 |
||||
Normalised Operating Margin |
24.2 |
25.2 |
23.0 |
24.1 |
24.4 |
22.1 |
21.6 |
22.1 |
||||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
4.5 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
7.6 |
6.6 |
5.6 |
||
Intangible Assets |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
||||
Tangible Assets |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
5.5 |
4.3 |
3.1 |
||||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Current Assets |
|
|
89.9 |
123.3 |
140.5 |
120.6 |
99.9 |
84.3 |
79.2 |
75.3 |
||
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Debtors |
57.9 |
70.7 |
47.9 |
16.9 |
20.1 |
25.1 |
30.1 |
35.1 |
||||
Cash & cash equivalents |
21.8 |
40.7 |
82.3 |
94.4 |
70.6 |
49.7 |
39.6 |
30.7 |
||||
Customer cash |
9.7 |
9.4 |
9.5 |
7.5 |
7.7 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
||||
Other |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
||||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(27.0) |
(32.7) |
(35.7) |
(35.3) |
(34.0) |
(41.0) |
(42.0) |
(43.0) |
||
Creditors |
(1.3) |
(1.0) |
(0.5) |
(1.8) |
(3.3) |
(4.3) |
(5.3) |
(6.3) |
||||
Short term provisions/ tax liabilities |
(14.1) |
(19.9) |
(21.4) |
(22.6) |
(19.2) |
(25.2) |
(25.2) |
(25.2) |
||||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Other |
(11.5) |
(11.8) |
(13.9) |
(10.9) |
(11.5) |
(11.5) |
(11.5) |
(11.5) |
||||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
||
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Other long term liabilities |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
||||
Net Assets |
|
|
67.5 |
95.3 |
109.6 |
89.3 |
69.3 |
47.4 |
40.3 |
34.4 |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
67.5 |
95.3 |
109.6 |
89.3 |
69.3 |
47.4 |
40.3 |
34.4 |
||
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
26.8 |
31.6 |
33.0 |
36.4 |
36.2 |
32.1 |
32.4 |
33.7 |
||||
Working capital |
(4.4) |
(3.6) |
(0.1) |
(2.4) |
(6.5) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
||||
Exceptional & other |
5.8 |
5.9 |
0.4 |
(0.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Tax |
(1.8) |
(2.3) |
(3.1) |
(2.8) |
(5.0) |
(2.5) |
(2.4) |
(2.5) |
||||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
26.4 |
31.7 |
30.2 |
30.8 |
24.8 |
25.7 |
25.9 |
27.1 |
||
Capex |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.7) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
||||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(2.4) |
(1.1) |
(1.3) |
(0.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Net interest |
2.2 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
||||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Dividends |
(2.8) |
(4.2) |
(15.8) |
(52.6) |
(52.6) |
(45.6) |
(35.1) |
(35.1) |
||||
Other |
(15.0) |
(9.6) |
28.2 |
33.0 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Net Cash Flow |
8.4 |
19.0 |
41.6 |
12.1 |
(23.8) |
(20.9) |
(10.1) |
(8.9) |
||||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(13.4) |
(21.8) |
(40.7) |
(82.3) |
(94.4) |
(70.6) |
(49.8) |
(39.7) |
||
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(21.8) |
(40.7) |
(82.3) |
(94.4) |
(70.6) |
(49.8) |
(39.7) |
(30.8) |
||
Source: bet-at-home accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Vermilion has reported Q219 FFO (fund flows from operations) of C$222.7m, 4.8% below consensus of C$233.8m and 8.2% below our forecast of C$242.5m despite a 14% increase in FFO y-o-y. Key drivers of the miss versus our forecast include reduced production in France due to a refinery outage which had a post-tax FFO impact of C$11m and an inventory build in Australia which had an impact of C$8m. At 103.0kboed, production was 1.2% ahead of our forecast despite the outage in France, driven by new wells contributing in the US (production +21% q-o-q) and Australia (+14% q-o-q). Guidance for FY19 production remains 101–106kboed (with the mid-point implying 19% y-o-y growth) and Vermilion’s capex budget of C$530m remains unchanged. Our last published valuation was C$47.5/share, based on a blend of FY19 P/CF, EV/EBIDAX and multiple of FCF plus five-year NAV growth. We note that there has been a material de-rating in the Canadian large-cap E&P sector which currently trades at an average 2.7x FY19e P/CF versus 3.8x at the time of our last Vermilion publication.