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Research: Consumer
bet-at-home (BAH) has reported headline figures for its delayed Q321 results. The results reflect a combination of a tough comparative from Q320, the ongoing effects of German regulation changes from the middle of October 2020, and evidence of good cost control. Full financials have not been disclosed as the company continues to evaluate the accounting treatment of activities post the decision to cease some operations in Austria. Management has reiterated its guidance for FY21, indicating a better performance on an underlying basis.
bet-at-home |
FY21 guidance reiterated
Travel & leisure |
Spotlight - Update
6 December 2021 |
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bet-at-home (BAH) has reported headline figures for its delayed Q321 results. The results reflect a combination of a tough comparative from Q320, the ongoing effects of German regulation changes from the middle of October 2020, and evidence of good cost control. Full financials have not been disclosed as the company continues to evaluate the accounting treatment of activities post the decision to cease some operations in Austria. Management has reiterated its guidance for FY21, indicating a better performance on an underlying basis.
Consensus estimates
Source: Refinitiv at 6 December 2021. Note: *Revenue = GGR. |
Q321: Good cost control
In Q321 BAH’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) declined by c 26% y-o-y to €22.8m. The c 5% decline in Sports GGR (to €11.5m) was against a tough comparative from Q320 as major events shifted from Q220 due to the end of COVID-19 related lockdowns. Gaming GGR declined by c 40% y-o-y due to the ‘lost’ revenue from roulette and black jack which have been banned by the new German regulations. Both Sports and Gaming GGR are likely to have been negatively affected by the monthly spending limits (€1,000/month). Personnel expenses declined by 12% y-o-y due mainly to the absence of senior management incentives, and Marketing fell by 38% due to the absence of major sporting events in the period. The gross cash position of €36.9m was unchanged versus Q221.
FY21: Management guidance reiterated
Management has reiterated the FY21 guidance that was updated on 18 October 2021 to take account of customer litigation developments and its decision to cease BAH’s online casino offering in Austria. The guidance is for GGR of €93–98m (a decline of 23–27% versus FY20’s €126.9m) and an EBITDA loss of €14–10m (FY20 profit of €30.9m). Excluding the provisions for customer lawsuits in Austria of €24.6m, the underlying EBITDA for FY21 of €10.6–14.6m appears strong versus prior FY21 guidance of €8–10m before the Q221 results, but is lower than the €18–22m guided for at Q121. This guidance includes no potential benefit from gaming levies paid by BAH on the player losses to be reimbursed (we estimate €18m).
Valuation: Looking forward to a recovery from FY22
Consensus estimates for FY21 EBITDA are in-line with management’s guidance, but revenue is above. We believe the consensus forecast of a dividend for FY21 of €1.55/share is unlikely given the losses expected by management.
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Research: Industrials
Thrace delivered another strong profit contribution in Q3, even after the expected slowdown in sales volumes to the medical subsector. This ongoing sector rotation, as well as prevailing input cost inflation, has been well-flagged and is already reflected in our unchanged divisional expectations. Thrace remains keenly focused on reinvesting the windfall gains generated from its medical sector exposure into long-term value creation for the business.
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