Last close As at 05/08/2026
—
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
—
Research: Industrials
With the new car market still challenging, the appointment of a new CEO does not automatically solve Lookers’ problems but does provide some encouragement. Mark Raban has credentials in the automotive retail sector and already appears to have been setting about resolving issues on the financial front. The better-than-expected year-end net debt position provides a reference. In 2020 we expect more efforts to improve the portfolio as he seeks to reset the strategy, optimise performance and driver Lookers forward.
Written by
Lookers |
Signs of progress despite challenges |
New CEO and Q419 |
Automotive retail |
6 February 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Lookers is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
With the new car market still challenging, the appointment of a new CEO does not automatically solve Lookers’ problems but does provide some encouragement. Mark Raban has credentials in the automotive retail sector and already appears to have been setting about resolving issues on the financial front. The better-than-expected year-end net debt position provides a reference. In 2020 we expect more efforts to improve the portfolio as he seeks to reset the strategy, optimise performance and driver Lookers forward.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
4,696.3 |
62.1 |
12.61 |
3.89 |
4.5 |
6.9 |
12/18** |
4,879.5 |
50.0 |
9.95 |
4.08 |
5.7 |
7.2 |
12/19e |
4,890.8 |
15.7 |
3.08 |
4.08 |
18.3 |
7.2 |
12/20e |
5,006.7 |
16.4 |
3.22 |
4.08 |
17.6 |
7.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Restated for IFRS 16.
New CEO appointment
We believe the elevation of Mark Raban to CEO of Lookers from his current CFO position should be seen as positive by investors. Mark has enjoyed a career spanning more than 30 years in retail and much of that in recent years has been in the motor trade with Inchcape and more recently Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH). As CFO he helped to steer MMH through its IPO and the transformational takeover of Ridgway. He starts his new role at Lookers having already had a chance to look under the bonnet of the second-largest UK automotive retail group after joining as CFO last May. Actions and controls implemented since his arrival appear to be having a positive impact on debt.
Earnings as expected, improved debt level
The company announced a trading update saying that despite a challenging Q419, especially in new car markets, forecast PBT was in line with the board’s expectations. New car sales fell 6.6%, below the UK market (Q419 -1.6%). More positively, used car sales rose 3.8% in Q419 outperforming a flat market as inventory levels were reduced, with more stable margins. Aftersales remained robust with sales broadly flat. The portfolio optimisation continued generating £8.3m of property sales proceeds, which combined with increased discipline on capex, working capital and cost controls left year-end net debt substantially better than expected at just £62.0m. The challenging retail environment persists with January UK new car registrations falling 7.3%, due to weak private buyer sales (down 13.9%), but management appears to be proactively addressing the issues.
Valuation: Multiple expansion requires recovery
In valuation terms the net debt improvement is worth about 10p per share, which is close to the share price recovery from November’s low. The multiple expansion since that low suggests investors expect a recovery in FY21 and if management confidence is increased by the FY19 debt level, dividend yield could be a support.
Trading update
Management has indicated the forecast FY19 PBT is in line with board expectations so we are leaving our estimates largely unchanged. However, the cash performance has been a positive stand out as working capital management, a stricter investment regime and property disposals improved debt levels and we have adjusted our estimates to reflect that.
New car market remains challenging
New car sales were 6.6% lower in Q419, a bigger fall than seen in Q319 (-3.2%), despite only modest declines in the overall market (Q419 -1.6%; Q319 -0.6%). More positively, used car sales rose 3.8% in Q419 outperforming a stable market, although in part the performance appears to be due to inventory level management. Nevertheless the margin stabilisation seen in Q319 continued. The high-margin aftersales business remained robust with sales broadly flat, although the absence of prior year parts volume bonuses may adversely influence the Q419 margin year on year.
In addition, the portfolio consolidation that identified 15 sites for closure is largely complete and has generated £8.3m of sales proceeds from four of the nine freehold sites that have been closed. The remaining five should be sold in the current year. Together with increased discipline on capex, working capital and cost controls, year-end net debt was substantially better than expected at just £62.0m compared to our previous estimate of £104.8m.
Our revised estimates are shown below.
Exhibit 1: Lookers earnings estimates revisions
Year to December (£m) |
2019e |
2019e |
|
2020e |
2020e |
|
Prior |
New |
Change |
Prior |
New |
Change |
|
New |
2,318.6 |
2,318.6 |
0.0% |
2,323.6 |
2,323.6 |
0.0% |
Used |
1,997.6 |
1,997.6 |
0.0% |
2,077.5 |
2,077.5 |
0.0% |
Aftersales |
458.7 |
458.7 |
0.0% |
486.2 |
486.2 |
0.0% |
Leasing |
116.0 |
116.0 |
0.0% |
119.5 |
119.5 |
0.0% |
Sales |
4,890.8 |
4,890.8 |
0.0% |
5,006.7 |
5,006.7 |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA |
81.7 |
81.7 |
0.0% |
84.0 |
84.0 |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying EBITA |
44.4 |
44.4 |
0.0% |
45.7 |
45.7 |
0.0% |
Underlying operating profit |
42.6 |
42.6 |
0.0% |
43.9 |
43.9 |
0.0% |
Underlying PTP |
15.7 |
15.7 |
0.0% |
16.4 |
16.4 |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPS - underlying continuing (p) |
3.08 |
3.08 |
0.0% |
3.22 |
3.22 |
0.0% |
DPS (p) |
4.08 |
4.08 |
0.0% |
4.08 |
4.08 |
0.0% |
Net debt / (cash) |
104.8 |
61.9 |
-41.0% |
86.9 |
43.5 |
-49.9% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£m |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
4,696.3 |
4,879.5 |
4,890.8 |
5,006.7 |
Cost of Sales |
(4,192.2) |
(4,364.0) |
(4,382.1) |
(4,486.0) |
||
Gross Profit |
504.1 |
515.5 |
508.6 |
520.7 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
105.4 |
114.8 |
81.7 |
84.0 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
83.0 |
82.2 |
48.3 |
49.3 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0.0 |
(5.6) |
(5.7) |
(5.4) |
||
Exceptionals |
(3.7) |
(1.4) |
(15.0) |
(3.0) |
||
Other |
(4.6) |
(2.2) |
(2.2) |
(2.2) |
||
Operating Profit |
74.7 |
73.0 |
25.3 |
38.6 |
||
Net Interest |
(16.3) |
(18.3) |
(18.6) |
(19.2) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
62.1 |
50.0 |
15.7 |
16.4 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
58.4 |
48.6 |
0.7 |
13.4 |
Tax |
(10.5) |
(8.8) |
(0.4) |
(2.7) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
51.6 |
41.0 |
12.5 |
13.1 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
47.9 |
39.8 |
0.2 |
10.6 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
397.3 |
393.4 |
389.2 |
389.2 |
||
EPS |
|
|
12.99 |
10.41 |
3.22 |
3.37 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
12.61 |
9.95 |
3.08 |
3.22 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
12.06 |
10.12 |
0.06 |
2.73 |
Dividend per share (p) |
3.89 |
4.08 |
4.08 |
4.08 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.4 |
10.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
2.2 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
563.2 |
668.6 |
662.9 |
649.6 |
Intangible Assets |
221.2 |
230.8 |
221.8 |
221.4 |
||
Tangible Assets |
342.0 |
350.9 |
363.5 |
358.8 |
||
Right of use asset |
0.0 |
86.9 |
77.7 |
69.5 |
||
Investments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
1,332.4 |
1,313.8 |
1,294.0 |
1,320.1 |
Stocks |
984.1 |
1,027.7 |
997.7 |
1,000.9 |
||
Debtors |
303.0 |
233.7 |
226.9 |
229.7 |
||
Cash |
45.3 |
44.4 |
69.4 |
89.4 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
8.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(1,247.7) |
(1,238.4) |
(1,226.3) |
(1,242.8) |
Creditors |
(1,228.1) |
(1,235.8) |
(1,226.3) |
(1,242.8) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(19.6) |
(2.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(262.9) |
(367.2) |
(369.5) |
(370.9) |
Long term borrowings |
(123.5) |
(128.7) |
(131.3) |
(133.0) |
||
Lease liabilities |
(110.2) |
(110.2) |
(110.2) |
|||
Other long term liabilities |
(139.4) |
(128.3) |
(128.0) |
(127.7) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
385.0 |
376.8 |
361.2 |
356.0 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
65.9 |
90.2 |
85.7 |
75.5 |
Net Interest |
(17.6) |
(16.3) |
(18.3) |
(18.6) |
||
Tax |
(10.5) |
(8.8) |
(0.4) |
(2.7) |
||
Capex |
(54.2) |
(33.6) |
(34.3) |
(20.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1.3) |
(13.7) |
8.3 |
0.0 |
||
Financing |
0.0 |
(9.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(15.0) |
(15.6) |
(16.0) |
(15.9) |
||
Other |
9.0 |
18.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(23.7) |
10.9 |
25.0 |
18.3 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
74.1 |
97.8 |
86.9 |
61.9 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
97.8 |
86.9 |
61.9 |
43.6 |
Net financial Liabilities |
197.1 |
172.1 |
153.8 |
Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates
|
|
AJ Lucas (AJL) has acquired Riverstone’s interest in the UK shale gas explorer, Cuadrilla Resources. As a result, AJL’s holding in Cuadrilla will increase from 47.6% to c 93%. Under the terms of Cuadrilla’s shareholders’ agreement, AJL has offered to acquire the shares of Cuadrilla’s remaining shareholders on the same terms as those being acquired from Riverstone; this step is now underway. The remaining shares are primarily held by current and former Cuadrilla employees. The transaction should simplify decision making and alignment as AJL and Cuadrilla continue to work with regulators and other UK shale gas operators, providing information to allow the UK government to lift the current moratorium on hydraulic fracturing.