Last close As at 05/08/2026
USD8.13
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
USD1,463m
Research: Real Estate
Dar Global’s FY23 results showed impressive growth driven by a range of positive factors, which bodes well for 2024 and beyond. Dar Global is in the early stages of delivering over 5,700 residences in the Middle East and Europe and is now looking further afield to markets such as the US for opportunity. We anticipate that it will generate a return on equity in the high teens and we value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17/share), implying c 40% upside.
Dar Global |
Initial FY23 results exceed revised guidance |
FY23 prelims |
Construction and materials |
1 March 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Dar Global is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Dar Global’s FY23 results showed impressive growth driven by a range of positive factors, which bodes well for 2024 and beyond. Dar Global is in the early stages of delivering over 5,700 residences in the Middle East and Europe and is now looking further afield to markets such as the US for opportunity. We anticipate that it will generate a return on equity in the high teens and we value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17/share), implying c 40% upside.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
80.0 |
28.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23** |
360.6 |
81.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
16.0 |
N/A |
12/24e |
309.4 |
85.3 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
N/A |
12/25e |
391.6 |
109.8 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
6.3 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. ** Company reported figures.
Dar Global’s first set of full year results since flotation showed impressive growth and came in materially ahead of our expectations, and also ahead of DAR’s January guidance (FY23 revenue of $340–360m, EBITDA of $80–85m). FY23 revenue was $360.6m, above the top end of the range (FY22: $80.0m), and EBITDA was $83m (FY22: $6.3m), implying an EBITDA margin of 23% (FY22: 8%). DAR operates an asset-light model and ended the year with net cash of $113.1m, with a development portfolio with a gross development value (GDV) of $5.9bn, up from $4.7bn a year ago. Its year end NAV increased from $281.4m to $465.4m, comfortably ahead of our estimate of $437m.
Dar Global traded well and sold 1,498 units, representing 46% of the total launched GDV to date of $2.2bn. It is on track to complete and handover its inaugural project, the Urban Oasis Tower in Q1, followed by the Da Vinci Tower by Pagani later this year. It launched its largest project in 2023, AIDA in Oman, which accounts for c 50% of the group’s total GDV, and Tierra Viva in Spain, which brings the group closer to the strategic objective of achieving a diverse portfolio with c 50% of projects in the GCC countries, and 50% in the rest of the world.
There were a number of positive trends in FY23 including buoyant buyer demand, positive cash collections and progress in construction, all of which make a helpful contribution to revenue recognition. It also aligned its conservative revenue recognition treatment of the Urban Oasis Tower with the rest of the portfolio, bringing forward revenue recognition into 2023, earlier than previously anticipated.
Despite this pull forward, management gave FY24 and FY25 revenue guidance of ‘at least $700m’, in line with our existing estimates, with a similar sales rate and EBITDA margin to FY23. Our EBITDA estimates imply margin improvement and are therefore under review. However, we highlight that the underlying market trends and outlook are positive and that we value the business based on a multiple of FY25 NAV.
Dar Global’s geographic expansion into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced in November is, in our view, an attractive and low-risk move, and today’s announcement highlights potential expansion into markets such as Greece and Morocco, as well as new territories not previously discussed, such as New York and Miami, where there is significant wealth and opportunity.
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Research: TMT
In H124 SenSen delivered positive free cash flow for the first time, a key milestone. The group’s Smart Cities focus and standardised business model supported steady top-line progression, as well as strong gross margin expansion and loss reduction. As end-H1 cash was boosted by an annual Australian development grant, we believe reaching positive free cash flow from the group’s core operating assets remains a key target. Below we outline a pathway for SenSen to deliver this target in Q4, underpinned by consistent top-line growth on a lower cost base.