SenSen Networks — Clear path to sustainable cash generation

SenSen Networks (ASX: SNS)

Last close As at 24/04/2024

AUD0.03

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

AUD20m

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Research: TMT

SenSen Networks — Clear path to sustainable cash generation

In H124 SenSen delivered positive free cash flow for the first time, a key milestone. The group’s Smart Cities focus and standardised business model supported steady top-line progression, as well as strong gross margin expansion and loss reduction. As end-H1 cash was boosted by an annual Australian development grant, we believe reaching positive free cash flow from the group’s core operating assets remains a key target. Below we outline a pathway for SenSen to deliver this target in Q4, underpinned by consistent top-line growth on a lower cost base.

Max Hayes

Written by

Max Hayes

Associate Analyst

TMT

SenSen Networks

Clear path to sustainable cash generation

H124 results

Software and comp services

1 March 2024

Price

A$0.03

Market cap

A$20m

Net debt (A$m) at 31 December 2023

(includes lease liabilities of A$1.2m)

0.1

Shares in issue

772.3m

Free float

46%

Code

SNS

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(7.1)

(29.7)

(51.6)

Rel (local)

(7.7)

(35.6)

(54.7)

52-week high/low

A$0.06

A$0.02

Business description

SenSen Networks, an Australian-based technology company, operates in the field of sensory artificial intelligence and provides ‘live awareness’. By applying its SenDISA AI platform to physical space monitoring, it extracts real-time insights that can be used in smart cities.

Next events

Q324 update

April 2024

Analysts

Max Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

SenSen Networks is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In H124 SenSen delivered positive free cash flow for the first time, a key milestone. The group’s Smart Cities focus and standardised business model supported steady top-line progression, as well as strong gross margin expansion and loss reduction. As end-H1 cash was boosted by an annual Australian development grant, we believe reaching positive free cash flow from the group’s core operating assets remains a key target. Below we outline a pathway for SenSen to deliver this target in Q4, underpinned by consistent top-line growth on a lower cost base.

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

Adj EBITDA*
(A$m)

PBT**
(A$m)

EPS**
(c)

P/sales
(x)

P/E
(x)

06/21

5.5

(2.2)

(2.9)

(0.59)

3.6

(3.9)

06/22

9.1

(7.6)

(8.4)

(1.40)

2.2

(3.9)

06/23

10.8

(5.1)

(6.1)

(0.91)

1.9

2.6

06/24e

13.0

0.6

(0.3)

(0.04)

1.5

(0.9)

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H124 results demonstrate strategy success

H124 total revenue grew 11% y-o-y to A$5.4m, with the group achieving growth across all geographies and performance validating SenSen’s refined Smart Cities focus. Gross margin expanded 10pp to 76%, attributed to an improved revenue mix and the shift to a more standardised business model, which has enabled faster and more consistent product deployment compared to the previous customisation approach. The EBITDA loss was reduced by c A$3m through cost optimisations, especially a 93-person staff reduction to 47 people at the Hyderabad centre, SenSen’s main service development hub. The significant EBITDA loss reduction and a A$2.5m R&D grant led to positive free cash flow, a key milestone for SenSen.

Next target expected to be met in Q4

Management is aiming to reach positive free cash flow in Q4 solely from its core assets, driven by revenue growth from the National Heavy Vehicle Regulator win and progress in the US (analysed in our Q2 note) on a lower cost base. This is despite the company experiencing some lengthening sales and delivery cycles, particularly with government customers, reflected in our 3% lower FY24 revenue estimate of A$13m, which still indicates 21% y-o-y growth. Exceptional costs and lower revenue reduce our FY24 profit and cash forecasts. We believe that delivering positive free cash flow in Q4 is still achievable and would demonstrate potential for sustainable cash generation from FY25.

Valuation: Rating misses long-term potential

On an FY24e EV/sales multiple of 1.6x, SenSen trades at a 53% discount to its small-cap AI peers. We believe the market overemphasizes short-term disruption from the recent strategy and cost moves. The current rating misses the long-term potential for operationally geared growth, especially in the target US market with key trials underway, where executing on a lower cost base could drive a re-rating of the stock.

Results and forecasts show positive cash progression

H124 results: Key milestone delivered

Operationally there have been no material updates since our Q224 note, with results reflecting progress across all geographies, with total revenue up 11% y-o-y to A$5.4m in H124. In addition to top-line growth, SenSen’s H124 results provide validation of the group’s refined Smart Cities focus, with key highlights including:

Gross margin expansion of 10pp to 76%, highlighting an improved revenue mix and driven by a more standardised business model rather a customisation model, enabling faster, more consistent deployment of its products.

A near A$3m reduction in EBITDA loss through cost optimisations, particularly staff where the move to a more standardised and refined model has enabled a 93 headcount reduction to 47 in its Hyderabad centre (SenSen’s hub for main service development).

The significant reduction in EBITDA loss and a A$2.5m research & development (R&D) grant supported a move to free cash flow positivity, a key milestone for the group.

Exhibit 1: H124 results summary

A$000s

H124

H123

y-o-y change

Revenue

Australia/New Zealand

3,589

3,319

8%

North America

1,160

1,025

13%

Asia

672

525

28%

Total

5,421

4,869

11%

Gross profit

4,127

3,218

28%

Gross margin

76%

66%

10%

Adjusted EBITDA

(620)

(3,481)

-82%

Adjusted EBITDA margin

-11%

-71%

60%

Profit/(loss) before tax

(2,049)

(4,551)

-55%

Adjusted PBT margin

-38%

-93%

56%

Free cash flow

572

(2,335)

N/A

Net debt/(cash)*

119

(957)

N/A

Source: SenSen Networks. Note: *Includes lease liabilities (H123: A$858k, H124: A$1,223k).

On a year-on-year basis, the group moved from a net cash position to a small net debt position. However, the 95% reduction in net debt from the FY23 year-end figure of A$2.6m provides a more accurate representation of SenSen’s progression. With total facilities of A$3.7m available and a positive cash flow trajectory, management has improved headroom to execute on its strategy.

Pathway to sustainable cash generation

As previously discussed, SenSen reached a key milestone by achieving positive free cash flow in H124, although this was substantially supported by the A$2.5m R&D grant, which should repeat next year. In Exhibit 2 we demonstrate a potential pathway for SenSen to reach positive free cash flow sustainably from its core operating assets.

The group is experiencing some lengthening sales and delivery cycles, particularly among its government customers, and so we estimate cash inflows will be weighted towards Q4. Additionally, we expect SenSen to incur some exceptional costs relating to its cost optimisation programme, such as redundancy payments, in Q3; the benefits of the programme should be fully recognised in Q4. Growth on a lower cost base drives our expectation of positive free cash flow in Q424, which we believe will be sustained into FY25.

Exhibit 2: Cash flow waterfall summarising sustainable free cash flow positivity

Source: SenSen Networks, Edison Investment Research. Note: Cash from other activities includes financing and investing cash flow movements.

Our year-end net cash forecast also includes a A$1.8m capital raise relating the SenSen’s dispute with Angel, where cash will be received once proceedings are dismissed, which management expects by 17 March. However, the company notes that receipt of this cash may be pushed to FY25 and additional outflows could be required if further proceedings with Angel are required.

Softened expectations reflect government customer base

We have lowered our FY24 revenue expectation by 3% to A$13m due to SenSen’s high concentration of government customers. Delays with these entities will likely cause some revenue to slip into FY25, a common issue in the market. However, SenSen’s National Heavy Vehicle Regulator contract win in Australia and strong US sales pipeline (currently 20 cities), with many proof-of-concept trials underway, provide relatively good visibility. Our estimate still shows robust 21% y-o-y revenue growth.

As previously discussed, exceptional costs related to SenSen’s cost optimisation programme and lower revenue drive the reduction in our FY24 profit forecasts, leading to a similar decrease in our cash flow expectations. Delivering on the free cash flow target in Q4 would pave the way for sustainable cash generation from FY25.

Exhibit 3: Summary of changes to forecasts

FY23

FY24e

A$m

Reported

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Revenue

10.8

13.4

13.0

-3%

21%

Gross profit

7.5

10.4

10.1

-3%

35%

Gross margin

69.3%

77.5%

77.5%

0%

8%

Adjusted EBITDA

(5.1)

2.6

0.6

-77%

N/A

Adjusted EBITDA margin

-47%

19%

5%

-15%

-33%

EBIT, normalised

(5.6)

2.0

0.1

-198%

N/A

PBT, normalised

(6.1)

1.9

(0.3)

N/A

N/A

EPS - normalised, diluted (c)

(0.91)

0.21

(0.04)

N/A

N/A

Cash flow from operations

(4.8)

1.8

0.1

-92%

N/A

Net debt/(cash)

2.6

(2.5)

(0.9)

-64%

N/A

Source: SenSen Networks, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

A$’k

2021

2022

2023

2024e

Year end 30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

5,533

9,145

10,797

13,027

Cost of Sales

(2,030)

(3,513)

(3,314)

(2,931)

Gross Profit

3,503

5,633

7,483

10,096

Other income

2,807

2,978

2,529

2,543

Oper. expense (not incl. share-based payments)

(8,524)

(16,217)

(15,102)

(12,037)

Adjusted EBITDA

 

 

(2,214)

(7,606)

(5,090)

601

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(2,685)

(8,183)

(5,605)

59

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(83)

(536)

(960)

(960)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Share-based payments

(72)

(3,173)

(208)

(1,000)

Reported operating profit

(2,840)

(11,893)

(6,773)

(1,900)

Net Interest

(176)

(254)

(463)

(329)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

(154)

(148)

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(2,861)

(8,437)

(6,068)

(270)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(3,016)

(12,300)

(7,384)

(2,229)

Reported tax

(6)

225

(26)

(175)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2,878)

(8,488)

(6,105)

(271)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(3,022)

(12,075)

(7,409)

(2,404)

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(2,878)

(8,488)

(6,105)

(271)

Net income (reported)

(3,022)

(12,075)

(7,409)

(2,404)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

484

608

667

726

EPS - basic normalised (c)

 

 

(0.59)

(1.40)

(0.91)

(0.04)

EPS - diluted normalised (c)

 

 

(0.59)

(1.40)

(0.91)

(0.04)

EPS - basic reported (c)

 

 

(0.62)

(1.99)

(1.11)

(0.33)

Dividend (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

47.0

65.3

18.1

20.7

Gross Margin (%)

63.3

61.6

69.3

77.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

-40.0

-83.2

-47.1

4.6

Normalised Operating Margin (%)

-48.5

-89.5

-51.9

0.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

2,168

9,127

9,052

9,083

Intangible Assets

1,300

8,281

7,322

7,322

Tangible Assets

800

770

1,692

1,722

Investments & other

68

75

39

39

Current Assets

 

 

8,022

11,391

7,286

8,652

Stocks

241

232

486

305

Debtors

979

1,943

1,467

1,175

Cash & cash equivalents

5,176

6,214

1,898

4,841

Other

1,625

3,002

3,435

2,332

Current Liabilities

 

 

3,946

8,185

9,549

8,957

Creditors

750

1,239

1,714

2,782

Tax and social security

0

0

0

0

Short term borrowings

861

1,954

3,101

2,545

Lease liabilities

306

185

287

287

Other

2,028

4,806

4,447

3,343

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

244

201

1,198

1,198

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Lease liabilities

138

183

1,091

1,091

Other long term liabilities

106

19

107

107

Net Assets

 

 

6,000

12,132

5,591

7,580

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

6,000

12,132

5,591

7,580

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before interest and tax

(3,250)

(7,770)

(4,449)

640

Net interest

(127)

(117)

(335)

(329)

Tax

(31)

0

0

(175)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(3,409)

(7,887)

(4,784)

136

Capex

(253)

(254)

(151)

(220)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(1,080)

0

0

Equity financing

7,043

9,644

0

3,855

Borrowings

(414)

1,120

909

(556)

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

(253)

(506)

(290)

(272)

Net Cash Flow

2,714

1,037

(4,316)

2,943

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1,150)

(4,315)

(4,259)

1,204

FX

0

0

0

0

Movement in borrowings

451

(1,093)

(1,147)

556

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(4,315)

(4,259)

1,204

(2,296)

Closing net debt/(cash) w/ leases

 

 

(3,871)

(3,891)

2,581

(918)

Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SenSen Networks and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SenSen Networks. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison’s policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SenSen Networks and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SenSen Networks. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison’s policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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