Last close As at 05/08/2026
USD8.13
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
USD1,463m
Research: Real Estate
Dar Global’s FY23 trading update points to materially better revenue and profit expectations than previously anticipated due to a range of positive factors. This is a bright end to the company’s first year as a listed entity and points to a positive outlook for 2024 and beyond. Dar Global is in the early stages of delivering over 5,700 residences in the Middle East and Europe and retains an ambition to expand the portfolio beyond the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and to develop a hospitality portfolio. We anticipate that Dar Global will generate a return on equity in the high teens and we value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17/share), implying c 40% upside.
Dar Global |
2023 revenue and profit surprise |
FY23 trading update |
Construction and materials |
26 January 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Dar Global is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Dar Global’s FY23 trading update points to materially better revenue and profit expectations than previously anticipated due to a range of positive factors. This is a bright end to the company’s first year as a listed entity and points to a positive outlook for 2024 and beyond. Dar Global is in the early stages of delivering over 5,700 residences in the Middle East and Europe and retains an ambition to expand the portfolio beyond the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and to develop a hospitality portfolio. We anticipate that Dar Global will generate a return on equity in the high teens and we value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17/share), implying c 40% upside.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
PBT* (US$m) |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
P/NAV |
12/22 |
80.0 |
28.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
268.8 |
61.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
11.4 |
1.5 |
12/24e |
309.4 |
85.3 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
1.3 |
12/25e |
391.6 |
109.8 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
6.3 |
1.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Dar Global’s FY23 trading update highlights some very positive trends that have led to full-year revenue and EBITDA expectations being materially ahead of the existing market consensus.
Notably, in the second half of 2023, there were a number of positive trends that benefited the company. These included buoyant buyer demand, positive customer collections (contracted stage payments for properties bought) and progress in construction, all of which made a helpful contribution to revenue recognition.
Dar Global has been particularly active on sites in the United Arab Emirates where it is very close to completing its first project, Urban Oasis Tower. Given the imminent completion of the project, the conservative accounting treatment of revenue on this initial project has been brought in line with the rest of the portfolio, which has meant that a greater proportion of revenue has been recognised in 2023, earlier than previously anticipated.
The net result of positive trading and construction, and conservative accounting policies and market estimates, has led to FY23 revenue expectations in the range of $340m to $360m and EBITDA in the range of $80m to $85m, versus a consensus revenue of $250m, and EBITDA of $62m. Our estimates are in line with consensus and are likely to be revised around the time of Dar Global’s preliminary results, which are expected to be published in March.
Dar Global’s expansion into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, announced in November, is, in our view, an attractive and low risk move, entirely in keeping with the company’s ambition to roll out its ‘capital-light’ business model to attractive new locations. For more details, read our update note and our initiation note.
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Research: Metals & Mining
Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) production update of 22 January revealed H124 production of 98,458oz gold, compared with prior guidance of 94,000–98,000oz, Edison’s expectation of 96,000oz and a figure of 92,307oz in H123. For the moment, we have left our financial forecasts for H124 unchanged, seeing roughly equally balanced upside and downside risks to our estimates pending actual results on 14 February. However, we note that the gold price is currently trading almost US$200/oz above our assumed H224 level.