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Research: Energy & Resources
Kolibri (KEI) released its annual reserves statement, which showed good replacement rates despite a visible increase in average production in FY23. At end-2023, the company’s total gross proved reserves declined by only 3% y-o-y to 32.4mmboe, while the total gross reserves increased by 3% to 79.4mmboe. KEI also reported a netback from operations of US$43.0/boe in FY23, marginally below our estimate of US$43.5/boe, on total average production of 2,796mboe. We will update our estimates and valuation following the upcoming release of the FY23 results.
Kolibri Global Energy |
FY23 reserves show solid replacement rates |
Reserves update |
Oil and gas |
27 March 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Kolibri Global Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Kolibri (KEI) released its annual reserves statement, which showed good replacement rates despite a visible increase in average production in FY23. At end-2023, the company’s total gross proved reserves declined by only 3% y-o-y to 32.4mmboe, while the total gross reserves increased by 3% to 79.4mmboe. KEI also reported a netback from operations of US$43.0/boe in FY23, marginally below our estimate of US$43.5/boe, on total average production of 2,796mboe. We will update our estimates and valuation following the upcoming release of the FY23 results.
Year end |
Net revenue |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
15.0 |
9.3 |
(0.02) |
0.00 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22 |
37.8 |
28.9 |
0.47 |
0.00 |
12.3 |
N/A |
12/23e |
53.2 |
41.3 |
0.61 |
0.00 |
9.4 |
N/A |
12/24e |
72.7 |
58.7 |
1.07 |
0.00 |
5.4 |
N/A |
Note: *EPS is normalised, excluding exceptional items.
KEI’s FY23 reserves statement demonstrated good replacement rates, with the overall gross proved reserves falling only by 3% y-o-y to 32.4mmboe, despite a strong increase in production during the year (up 70% vs FY22). At the same time, the overall gross reserves grew by 3% y-o-y to 79.4mmboe on the back of a 9% increase in possible reserves. At the proved and probable level, KEI recorded 0.6mmboe in reserves extensions and 0.2mmboe in positive technical revisions (changes associated with revisions in well parameters), while the depletion related to production amounted to 1.0mmboe.
In other news, KEI has reported an FY23 operating netback of US$43.0/boe (US$41.6/boe after commodity contract adjustments) based on the average production of 2,796boed (against revised guidance of 2,800–3,000boed). These compare to our estimates of US$43.5/boe (US$42.4/boe) and 2,881boed, respectively. The company achieved a basket price of US$63.1/boe versus our estimate of US$64.4/boe, while production costs of US$6.6/boe were visibly below our estimate of US$7.1/boe. The provided production and netback numbers imply FY23 gross revenues of US$64.4m (c US$51m net), versus our estimate of US$67.7m (US$53m).
In its reserves update, KEI mentioned it is planning to start drilling its next two wells (62.9% working interest) in April, with the overall number of completions this year maintained at 6–7 wells.
We will update our estimates and valuation of KEI (currently at US$7.1/C$9.5 per share) following the release of full FY23 results. The release has been delayed due to a change in auditor, with the filing now expected no later than 31 May.
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Research: Healthcare
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