Last close As at 05/08/2026
AUD0.12
▲ 0.01 (4.55%)
Market capitalisation
AUD50m
Research: TMT
Freelancer achieved a key profitability target in Q323 by delivering positive operating EBITDA across divisions, leading to positive operating cash flow generation and an uplift in gross cash. Despite lower group gross merchandise value (GMV), revenue likely grew given the higher take rate of the marketplace division, where GMV increased. Near-term pipeline highlights include accelerating Enterprise momentum from US expansion and a Chinese retailer partnership, Loadshift’s ongoing marketplace transition and new Escrow.com partnerships to drive diversification.
Written by
Freelancer |
Delivering on cash and profit targets |
Q323 update |
Software and comp services |
24 October 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Freelancer is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Freelancer achieved a key profitability target in Q323 by delivering positive operating EBITDA across divisions, leading to positive operating cash flow generation and an uplift in gross cash. Despite lower group gross merchandise value (GMV), revenue likely grew given the higher take rate of the marketplace division, where GMV increased. Near-term pipeline highlights include accelerating Enterprise momentum from US expansion and a Chinese retailer partnership, Loadshift's ongoing marketplace transition and new Escrow.com partnerships to drive diversification.
Year end |
Revenue (A$m) |
EBITDA* |
PBT** |
EPS** |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
12/21 |
57.4 |
(2.7) |
(3.0) |
(0.7) |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22 |
55.7 |
(6.6) |
(6.9) |
(1.5) |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
54.8 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
204.3 |
1911.3 |
12/24e |
59.5 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
37.2 |
84.6 |
Note: *Operating EBITDA includes depreciation and interest charges associated with capitalised leases. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Positive EBITDA and operating cash flow
Freelancer reported a 3.0% y-o-y decrease in Q323 GMV to A$222.3m, with an 8.4% increase in its marketplace division not enough to offset the 4.8% decline in Escrow.com. Despite lower GMV, revenue likely grew given marketplace's higher average take rate of GMV (>30%) versus Escrow.com (<5%), although no figure was given. A key target was achieved by delivering positive operating EBITDA in each division, driving operating cash flow of A$1m in the quarter and a A$0.4m qoq increase in gross cash to A$23.5m. This demonstrates the benefits of the H1 efficiency measures, namely staff reductions, and underpins the operating leverage required to deliver our unchanged profit and cash forecasts for the year. We have updated our year-end cash forecast, reflecting the Q3 gross position and positive EBITDA.
Key milestones in the pipeline
Marketplace GMV was driven by a 1.6m increase in users and 1.9% y-o-y uplift in average project size, supported by investment in the user interface and collaboration tools. Liquidity continued to improve, aided by generative AI, enabling freelancers to expand skills and complete tasks faster. Enterprise GMV was flat but accelerated in late Q3 following the hire of a head of global sales, the lack of which had caused disruption. Momentum should continue into Q4 from US expansion and the onboarding of a major Chinese retailer. Loadshift momentum continued with 39% qoq GMV growth; transitioning to a marketplace model could further increase revenue. In Escrow.com, new partnerships, including a leading shopping cart SaaS platform launching in Q124, should drive diversification beyond domain names, typically the largest contributor to the division’s revenue, which lagged this year.
Valuation: Showing growth potential to drive upside
Our view is that Freelancer’s share price does not reflect its long-term potential, with multiple levers driving value. The company trades at an 81% discount to peers on EV/sales across FY1e and FY2e, narrowing to 44% compared to Upwork and Fiverr. Showing further growth potential in either division could be a catalyst.
Strong operational progress and positive momentum
In Q323, Freelancer made strong progress across its marketplace and Escrow.com divisions, achieving key milestones we previously identified as potential long-term value drivers; see below.
Freelancer marketplace
Freelancer reported 8.4% GMV growth to A$34.1m, driving 2% cash receipts growth and positive operating EBITDA with operating leverage. We expect the retail marketplace, comprising 94% of FY22 GMV, to grow steadily aided by investments aimed at improving the user experience and communication/collaboration to drive conversion, retention and average project size.
Management has noticed a step-change in project quality and speed from freelancers using generative AI, which could also expand a freelancer’s skillset. Further use of AI could further boost liquidity and GMV, as CEO Matt Barrie noted small businesses still find it more effective to utilise freelancer specialists on AI platforms versus doing it in-house. The combination of a global pool of freelancers, many from developing countries with lower costs, and the quality boost from AI tools is compelling for smaller businesses, especially those with tightening budgets.
Enterprise
■
Revenue was flat year-on-year primarily due to leadership transition, but increased by more than 30% between August and September following David Lane’s appointment as global head of sales.
■
Global field services: extended services to 32 cities globally, doubling work orders in the quarter. Venturing into the much larger US market in Q4, with pilots in New Mexico, Chicago and Atlanta, where the expected move into installation work, rather than the more capital-intensive hardware repair, could lead to margin expansion.
■
Major partnership: onboarded one of the largest online Chinese retailers (generates US$28bn in annual revenue) to create a custom platform for gaining access to a global contingent platform, similar to Deloitte MyGigs. The material impact is likely to be in the longer term, given the work required to create the platform.
Loadshift
■
GMV up 39% q-o-q with continuing transition from a classified membership model to a marketplace model driving revenue by increasing the take rate.
■
New features, such an automated proof of delivery generator, to enhance efficiency and drive the transition, where these features are not available on the classifieds model.
Escrow.com
Escrow.com GMV declined 4.8% y-o-y to A$188.2m, driven by subdued domain name transactions, which comprise the largest share of payment volumes. Domain names should remain the greatest contributor this year, though revenue can be variable as performance often follows trends like crypto in 2021. An expected rebound in venture activity for AI-related domain names did not occur in Q3 as expected by management, but the company remains hopeful for Q4 improvement. However, new partnerships in other areas should help diversify risk, as highlighted below:
■
Integration into a major shopping cart SaaS platform, expected to launch in Q124.
■
Signed with Trailers.com and SurplusRecord in automotive and construction, two key verticals where the company sees these partnerships acting as a springboard for new deals. Management expects to sign new partnerships in Q423 and Q124.
■
Continued month-on-month growth with existing partner Acquire.com.
■
Partnership agreement with a large intellectual property broker expected for Q423.
Changes to forecasts
We leave our revenue and profit forecasts unchanged but increase our year end cash expectations for FY23 reflecting Freelancer’s Q323 gross cash position of A$23.5m and positive EBITDA. The uplift to our FY23 cash forecast, based on changed working capital assumptions, has led to an increase of an equal amount in our FY24 and FY25 projections.
Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts
FY23e |
FY24e |
FY25e |
||||||||
New |
Old |
% change |
New |
Old |
% change |
New |
Old |
% change |
||
Revenues |
54.8 |
54.8 |
0.0% |
59.5 |
59.5 |
0.0% |
64.7 |
64.7 |
0.0% |
|
Gross profit |
46.2 |
46.2 |
0.0% |
50.2 |
50.2 |
0.0% |
54.6 |
54.6 |
0.0% |
|
Gross margin |
84.3% |
84.3% |
0.0% |
84.3% |
84.3% |
0.0% |
84.3% |
84.3% |
0.0% |
|
Operating EBITDA* |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0% |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0.0% |
3.1 |
3.1 |
0.0% |
|
Operating EBITDA margin |
1% |
1% |
0.0% |
3% |
3% |
0.0% |
5% |
5% |
0.0% |
|
Reported operating profit |
2.0 |
2.0 |
0.0% |
3.5 |
3.5 |
0.0% |
4.7 |
4.7 |
0.0% |
|
Reported operating margin |
4% |
4% |
0.0% |
6% |
6% |
0.0% |
7% |
7% |
0.0% |
|
Normalised net income |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0% |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.0% |
1.9 |
1.9 |
0.0% |
|
Normalised diluted EPS (c) |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.0% |
0.24 |
0.24 |
0.0% |
0.43 |
0.43 |
0.0% |
|
Net debt/(cash) |
(24.1) |
(19.7) |
22.6% |
(27.1) |
(22.7) |
19.5% |
(31.6) |
(27.1) |
16.4% |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
A$'000s |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year end 31 -December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
51,675 |
57,911 |
58,771 |
57,419 |
55,660 |
54,778 |
59,500 |
64,717 |
Cost of Sales |
(7,651) |
(9,455) |
(9,786) |
(9,689) |
(8,740) |
(8,601) |
(9,343) |
(10,162) |
||
Gross Profit |
44,024 |
48,456 |
48,985 |
47,730 |
46,920 |
46,176 |
50,157 |
54,555 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(672) |
2,044 |
5,793 |
3,972 |
(746) |
6,615 |
8,091 |
9,344 |
Operating EBITDA |
|
|
(705) |
(1,084) |
(447) |
(2,690) |
(6,579) |
329 |
1,805 |
3,057 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(1,202) |
(1,170) |
1,081 |
(922) |
(5,216) |
2,176 |
3,640 |
4,890 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(558) |
(329) |
(192) |
(156) |
(159) |
(159) |
(159) |
(159) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(1,760) |
(1,499) |
889 |
(1,078) |
(5,375) |
2,017 |
3,481 |
4,731 |
||
Net Interest |
(33) |
(219) |
(1,751) |
(2,035) |
(1,655) |
(2,108) |
(2,108) |
(2,108) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(1,235) |
(1,389) |
(670) |
(2,957) |
(6,871) |
68 |
1,532 |
2,782 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(1,793) |
(1,718) |
(862) |
(3,113) |
(7,030) |
(91) |
1,373 |
2,623 |
Reported tax |
309 |
127 |
216 |
856 |
1,617 |
0 |
(412) |
(787) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(1,235) |
(1,389) |
(670) |
(2,957) |
(6,871) |
47 |
1,073 |
1,948 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(1,484) |
(1,591) |
(646) |
(2,257) |
(5,413) |
(91) |
961 |
1,836 |
||
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(1,235) |
(1,389) |
(670) |
(2,957) |
(6,871) |
47 |
1,073 |
1,948 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(1,484) |
(1,591) |
(646) |
(2,257) |
(5,413) |
(91) |
961 |
1,836 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
449 |
450 |
450 |
450 |
451 |
452 |
452 |
452 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (c) |
|
|
(0.27) |
(0.31) |
(0.15) |
(0.66) |
(1.52) |
0.01 |
0.24 |
0.43 |
EPS - diluted normalised (c) |
|
|
(0.27) |
(0.31) |
(0.15) |
(0.66) |
(1.52) |
0.01 |
0.24 |
0.43 |
EPS - basic reported (c) |
|
|
(0.33) |
(0.35) |
(0.14) |
(0.50) |
(1.20) |
(0.02) |
0.21 |
0.41 |
Dividend (c) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
0.0 |
12.1 |
1.5 |
(2.3) |
(3.1) |
(1.6) |
8.6 |
8.8 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
85.2 |
83.7 |
83.3 |
83.1 |
84.3 |
84.3 |
84.3 |
84.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-1.3 |
3.5 |
9.9 |
6.9 |
-1.3 |
12.1 |
13.6 |
14.4 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
(2.3) |
(2.0) |
1.8 |
(1.6) |
(9.4) |
4.0 |
6.1 |
7.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
33,459 |
60,699 |
61,727 |
66,372 |
66,248 |
66,251 |
66,241 |
66,230 |
Intangible Assets |
26,429 |
26,429 |
26,457 |
34,119 |
34,120 |
34,120 |
34,120 |
34,120 |
||
Tangible Assets |
557 |
27,446 |
22,785 |
19,392 |
18,323 |
18,326 |
18,316 |
18,305 |
||
Deferred tax & other |
6,473 |
6,824 |
12,485 |
12,861 |
13,805 |
13,805 |
13,805 |
13,805 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
37,657 |
37,326 |
41,964 |
38,955 |
30,797 |
31,574 |
35,039 |
39,898 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
3,474 |
4,003 |
5,593 |
6,448 |
4,825 |
4,749 |
5,158 |
5,610 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
33,211 |
32,014 |
34,341 |
30,316 |
23,358 |
24,211 |
27,267 |
31,674 |
||
Other |
972 |
1,309 |
2,030 |
2,191 |
2,614 |
2,614 |
2,614 |
2,614 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
38,628 |
42,984 |
48,170 |
50,849 |
48,831 |
49,543 |
51,878 |
54,730 |
Creditors |
35,898 |
36,607 |
39,166 |
41,259 |
39,647 |
40,359 |
42,694 |
45,546 |
||
Tax and social security |
71 |
57 |
87 |
43 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
||
Short term borrowings |
121 |
121 |
286 |
121 |
121 |
121 |
121 |
121 |
||
Lease liabilities |
0 |
3,248 |
5,628 |
5,709 |
5,562 |
5,562 |
5,562 |
5,562 |
||
Other |
2,538 |
2,951 |
3,003 |
3,717 |
3,483 |
3,483 |
3,483 |
3,483 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
1,413 |
25,102 |
26,356 |
23,148 |
21,749 |
21,749 |
21,749 |
21,749 |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Lease liabilities |
0 |
23,134 |
19,094 |
16,082 |
15,519 |
15,519 |
15,519 |
15,519 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
1,413 |
1,968 |
7,262 |
7,066 |
6,230 |
6,230 |
6,230 |
6,230 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
31,075 |
29,939 |
29,165 |
31,330 |
26,465 |
26,533 |
27,653 |
29,648 |
Minority interests |
(20) |
(20) |
(20) |
(3,674) |
(3,674) |
(3,674) |
(3,674) |
(3,674) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
31,055 |
29,919 |
29,145 |
27,656 |
22,791 |
22,859 |
23,979 |
25,974 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(717) |
1,623 |
4,066 |
2,637 |
(943) |
4,348 |
5,412 |
6,290 |
||
Working capital |
(660) |
300 |
5,094 |
(1,463) |
(3,930) |
789 |
1,925 |
2,400 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(160) |
(196) |
(1,439) |
1,313 |
535 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
558 |
329 |
192 |
156 |
159 |
159 |
159 |
159 |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(979) |
2,056 |
7,913 |
2,643 |
(4,179) |
5,295 |
7,497 |
8,849 |
Capex |
(135) |
(227) |
(221) |
(429) |
(149) |
(264) |
(264) |
(264) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
23 |
0 |
(28) |
(7,662) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Borrowings |
121 |
0 |
176 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Equity financing |
57 |
340 |
0 |
3,987 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
86 |
(3,091) |
(2,721) |
(3,479) |
(3,845) |
(4,178) |
(4,178) |
(4,178) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(827) |
(922) |
5,119 |
(4,940) |
(8,173) |
853 |
3,055 |
4,407 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(31,908) |
(33,090) |
(31,893) |
(34,055) |
(30,195) |
(23,237) |
(24,090) |
(27,146) |
FX |
2,130 |
(275) |
(2,792) |
915 |
1,215 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(121) |
0 |
(165) |
165 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(33,090) |
(31,893) |
(34,055) |
(30,195) |
(23,237) |
(24,090) |
(27,146) |
(31,553) |
Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts
|
|
Research: Industrials
Melrose Industries’ investor event focused on the key GKN Aerospace engines business (Edison estimate 81% of FY23 profit). The industry-wide Risk and Revenue Sharing Partnerships (RRSPs) and its position as a design partner on both the next-generation engines under development are testament to the capabilities and technologies it possesses. Investment continues in order to maintain such leading positions as seen in additive fabrication and manufacturing, which includes a new £40m facility to support signed commercial contracts. This will put GKN Aerospace at the forefront of this step change technology, promoting future partnerships and commercial opportunities.