Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Research: TMT
Freelancer saw a mixed performance in Q126, with strong volume and revenue growth for Escrow.com which was more than offset by weaker volumes in the Freelancer core marketplace. Measures are underway to remedy the causes of the volume decline, including adapting the platform for generative AI-related changes to search. We have revised our forecasts to reflect weaker than expected Q1 performance, reducing our revenue forecasts by 8.1% in FY26 and 7.7% in FY27.
| Year end | Revenue (AUDm) | EBIT (adj) (AUDm) | PBT (AUDm) | EPS (AUc) | P/E (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/24 | 51.0 | 0.8 | (1.2) | (0.26) | N/A |
| 12/25 | 53.2 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 0.49 | 30.9 |
| 12/26e | 51.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.03 | N/A |
| 12/27e | 55.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.28 | 55.2 |
The Freelancer division saw a gross marketplace value (GMV) decline of 14.8% and a revenue decline of 19.0%, as various technical issues dampened demand in the core marketplace. Within this division, the Loadshift business achieved y-o-y GMV and revenue growth. The Escrow division conversely saw GMV and revenue growth of 18.9% y-o-y and record operating profitability helped by several larger transactions. Adjusted EBIT was breakeven, with a record profit in the Escrow division offset by a loss from the Freelancer division. Including an fx gain, PBT was positive.
We assume that the measures the company is taking will result in improving GMV in the core marketplace through the course of 2026. To offset lower revenues, we expect the company to manage costs including slowing the pace of hiring. The revenue reductions result in a 79% decline in our FY26 adjusted EBIT forecast and a 32% decline in FY27.
A reverse discounted cash flow analysis implies that the market is factoring in only low-single-digit revenue growth and low-single-digit margins for the group over FY28–35. With improved take rates in Escrow.com and an already high take rate for the Freelancer marketplace, we view reversal of the core marketplace GMV declines as the key driver of revenue growth. Factoring in revenue growth of 5% per year from FY28 to FY35 and EBITDA margins increasing to 18.7% by FY35 as the company benefits from operational leverage results in a valuation of A$0.40/share, 164% above the current share price. Catalysts for the share price include higher customer acquisition, retention rates and project sizes in the core marketplace, enterprise contract wins, growing Loadshift GMV and a growing contribution from customers in new verticals for Escrow.com.
| Exhibit 1: Q126 highlights |
| Source: Freelancer |
For Q126, group GMV of A$263.3m was up 14.0% y-o-y whereas group revenue of A$12.2m declined 10.3% y-o-y due to mix (see divisional discussion below for more detail). As the majority of revenues were earned in US dollars, the strength of the Australian dollar versus the US dollar reduced reported GMV and revenue (average A$1.44/US$ in Q126 vs 1.59 in Q125).
The group broke even at the operating profit level before fx, with Escrow.com generating a record operating profit. After a positive fx contribution, the Freelancer segment excluding Loadshift delivered a modest operating profit on a reported basis.
Operating cash flow was -A$0.1m compared to A$3.5m in Q125 due to a combination of lower operating profit and lower user balances. Net cash flow was -A$1.7m versus A$2.2m in Q125. During Q126, the company paid another A$0.4m instalment for the purchase of Loadshift shares. The company also incurred one-off costs from the closure of the Buenos Aires office and the Manila lease transition (including make-good and fit out costs, and deposits). PBT, which included an fx gain, was positive for the quarter. Cash at the end of Q126 was A$20.8m, down 18% y-o-y and 9% q-o-q.
The division saw Q126 GMV down 14.8% y-o-y and revenue down 19.0% y-o-y. The divisional take rate of 30.6% was down from 32.2% a year ago, we estimate mainly due to the higher proportion of enterprise and Loadshift GMV in the mix, both of which have a lower take rate than the core marketplace.
The core marketplace had a challenging quarter. In Q126, it added 1.31m users (down
24% y-o-y and q-o-q) and 150,000 new projects (down 18% y-o-y and up 6% q-o-q). The
average project size grew 20.4% y-o-y to
Three factors negatively affected performance during the quarter:
In addition to the work underway to resolve the issues described above, the business delivered a new bid ranking algorithm at the end of Q126, which helped overall award and accept rates. It is expected to be particularly attractive to users searching for niche skill sets and with complex, high value projects. The business also implemented a policy change that limits the bidding pool, resulting in an 80% reduction in low quality bids for specific project categories. In Q226, the business expects to accelerate the automation of support functions and noted that its in-house coding agent, Diffuty, can now process increasingly complex coding tasks, which should support higher coding throughput.
The business expanded its customer base across AI data services, field operations and managed workforce solutions and has contracts and pilots at various stages of execution across digital payments, customer experience and AI data services. Notable events in Q126:
In Q126, the business saw revenue growth of 6.8% y-o-y and GMV growth of 5.7% y-o-y. Job postings increased 18.3% y-o-y to 12,518 and awards increased 9.6% to 3,359, resulting in a decrease in the award rate to 26.8% from 28.9% in Q125 and 27.1% in Q425. Delivered loads increased 11.6% y-o-y to 2,785. The Iran-related increase in fuel prices drove higher quoting levels resulting in increased job repostings, which in turn reduced the award rate. We estimate fuel price volatility could dampen freight volumes for at least the current quarter.
In Q126, the division grew GMV and revenue by 18.9% y-o-y with a take rate of 1.48%,
flat y-o-y. This was the second-highest revenue quarter in its history. Domain name
GMV was
Outside the core domain names business, Escrow.com continues to develop partnerships in other verticals including e-commerce, global trade, B2B electronics and IPv4.
As we have previously discussed, the business is working on operational improvements, in particular to bring automation to manual processes and to strengthen its payments infrastructure. The migration of the front-end to the Freelancer technology stack is underway with go-live expected in Q226.
We have revised our forecasts to reflect Q126 performance. For Freelancer, we have reduced our core marketplace GMV assumptions for the remainder of the year, assuming that y-o-y growth resumes in Q426. We assume that the company manages its cost base in response to lower volumes in the Freelancer division, and we reduce our headcount growth assumptions for FY26 and FY27. Overall, we reduce our FY26 revenue forecast by 8.1% and FY27 by 7.7%. This results in a reduction in FY26 adjusted EBIT from A$2.3m to A$0.5m and in FY27 from A$3.0m to A$2.1m.
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Research: Metals & Mining
WPM’s Q126 financial results are scheduled for release on 7 May. To date, production from Vale (pertaining to Salobo, Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay) and from Artemis (pertaining to Blackwater) has been broadly in line with our expectations. However, metals prices have fallen by c 7% since our last note, driven by forced liquidations since the start of the Iran war, which has caused us to reduce our Q126 EPS forecast by a barely material 6.5% to