Freelancer — A mixed picture

Freelancer (ASX: FLN)

Last close As at 05/08/2026

AUD0.12

0.01 (4.55%)

Market capitalisation

AUD50m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Freelancer — A mixed picture

Freelancer saw a mixed performance in Q126, with strong volume and revenue growth for Escrow.com which was more than offset by weaker volumes in the Freelancer core marketplace. Measures are underway to remedy the causes of the volume decline, including adapting the platform for generative AI-related changes to search. We have revised our forecasts to reflect weaker than expected Q1 performance, reducing our revenue forecasts by 8.1% in FY26 and 7.7% in FY27.

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

Software and comp services

Q126 update

24 April 2026

Price AUD0.152
Market cap AUD69m

Net cash/(debt) at end FY25

AUD22.9m

Shares in issue

450.9m
Free float 18.0%
Code FLN
Primary exchange ASX
Secondary exchange OTC
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs (26.5) (41.9) (45.7)
52-week high/low AUD0.3 AUD0.1

Business description

Freelancer is an Australian company, operating one of the world’s largest online marketplaces for freelancers. Its marketplace division has two business units and the company also owns Escrow.com, which is a large transactions processor.

Next events

H126 results

July

Analyst

Katherine Thompson
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Freelancer is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: Adjusted EBIT is after depreciation and interest charges associated with capitalised leases and excludes unrealised FX gains or losses, share-based payments and other depreciation. PBT and diluted EPS are normalised and exclude amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (AUDm) EBIT (adj) (AUDm) PBT (AUDm) EPS (AUc) P/E (x)
12/24 51.0 0.8 (1.2) (0.26) N/A
12/25 53.2 2.0 3.4 0.49 30.9
12/26e 51.8 0.5 0.3 0.03 N/A
12/27e 55.2 2.1 1.9 0.28 55.2

Group GMV +14% y-o-y, revenue -10% y-o-y

The Freelancer division saw a gross marketplace value (GMV) decline of 14.8% and a revenue decline of 19.0%, as various technical issues dampened demand in the core marketplace. Within this division, the Loadshift business achieved y-o-y GMV and revenue growth. The Escrow division conversely saw GMV and revenue growth of 18.9% y-o-y and record operating profitability helped by several larger transactions. Adjusted EBIT was breakeven, with a record profit in the Escrow division offset by a loss from the Freelancer division. Including an fx gain, PBT was positive.

Adjusting cost base to demand

We assume that the measures the company is taking will result in improving GMV in the core marketplace through the course of 2026. To offset lower revenues, we expect the company to manage costs including slowing the pace of hiring. The revenue reductions result in a 79% decline in our FY26 adjusted EBIT forecast and a 32% decline in FY27.

Valuation: Core turnaround key driver of upside

A reverse discounted cash flow analysis implies that the market is factoring in only low-single-digit revenue growth and low-single-digit margins for the group over FY28–35. With improved take rates in Escrow.com and an already high take rate for the Freelancer marketplace, we view reversal of the core marketplace GMV declines as the key driver of revenue growth. Factoring in revenue growth of 5% per year from FY28 to FY35 and EBITDA margins increasing to 18.7% by FY35 as the company benefits from operational leverage results in a valuation of A$0.40/share, 164% above the current share price. Catalysts for the share price include higher customer acquisition, retention rates and project sizes in the core marketplace, enterprise contract wins, growing Loadshift GMV and a growing contribution from customers in new verticals for Escrow.com.

Q126 update trading update

For Q126, group GMV of A$263.3m was up 14.0% y-o-y whereas group revenue of A$12.2m declined 10.3% y-o-y due to mix (see divisional discussion below for more detail). As the majority of revenues were earned in US dollars, the strength of the Australian dollar versus the US dollar reduced reported GMV and revenue (average A$1.44/US$ in Q126 vs 1.59 in Q125).

The group broke even at the operating profit level before fx, with Escrow.com generating a record operating profit. After a positive fx contribution, the Freelancer segment excluding Loadshift delivered a modest operating profit on a reported basis.

Operating cash flow was -A$0.1m compared to A$3.5m in Q125 due to a combination of lower operating profit and lower user balances. Net cash flow was -A$1.7m versus A$2.2m in Q125. During Q126, the company paid another A$0.4m instalment for the purchase of Loadshift shares. The company also incurred one-off costs from the closure of the Buenos Aires office and the Manila lease transition (including make-good and fit out costs, and deposits). PBT, which included an fx gain, was positive for the quarter. Cash at the end of Q126 was A$20.8m, down 18% y-o-y and 9% q-o-q.

Freelancer division: Core marketplace weakness

The division saw Q126 GMV down 14.8% y-o-y and revenue down 19.0% y-o-y. The divisional take rate of 30.6% was down from 32.2% a year ago, we estimate mainly due to the higher proportion of enterprise and Loadshift GMV in the mix, both of which have a lower take rate than the core marketplace.

Core marketplace

The core marketplace had a challenging quarter. In Q126, it added 1.31m users (down 24% y-o-y and q-o-q) and 150,000 new projects (down 18% y-o-y and up 6% q-o-q). The average project size grew 20.4% y-o-y to US$414, bids per project increased 4.1% to 51 and contest entries increased 72.4% to 862 per contest. The primary paid acquisition channel grew 5.5% y-o-y, as measured by deposits from new clients in the first 28 days. Repeat customer award and milestone rates also increased y-o-y due to product improvements.

Three factors negatively affected performance during the quarter:

  • Security enhancements created friction for returning users. The business rolled out two-factor authentication in late 2025 to reduce fraudulent account activity and strengthen platform integrity. This created friction for returning users, particularly for longer-term users with legacy account configurations. The company is refining the authentication process for verified users and believes that the impact on volumes is now stabilising.
  • Organic search volumes down. In late 2025, the company migrated substantially all site traffic to content delivery network (CDN) -based caching infrastructure to address elevated automated crawler activity, particularly from AI training and scraping agents. As part of this process, rate-limiting controls were applied to Google crawler traffic, which inadvertently affected legitimate indexation and reduced organic referral traffic. The increased prominence of AI-generated search summaries is also likely to have contributed to lower search volumes. Some technical fixes were put in place in Q1 and have delivered some improvements, but the channel has not yet returned to prior year levels. To reduce reliance on organic search, the company is focused on three areas: 1) making technical improvements relating to indexation, schema mark-up and site architecture, 2) producing a content programme that targets high-intent skill and project categories to capture commercial search demand and 3) investing in answer engine optimisation (AEO) and generative engine optimisation (GEO) to ensure Freelancer appears in large language model (LLM) search results.
  • Recruiter volumes down. The Recruiter function (which helps larger customers to find approved freelancers) was moved to Manila from Buenos Aires to improve operational efficiency. The Manila team has managed to lift award rates for managed projects. However, changes were made to qualifying thresholds for complimentary Recruiter upgrades, and this resulted in a temporary reduction in the volume of high-value projects. Management is reviewing the thresholds to restore volumes while preserving the improved conversion rates. The company is also scaling team capacity and increasing automation to support sustainable growth in throughput, and it expects that volumes should revert to previous levels in the coming quarter.

In addition to the work underway to resolve the issues described above, the business delivered a new bid ranking algorithm at the end of Q126, which helped overall award and accept rates. It is expected to be particularly attractive to users searching for niche skill sets and with complex, high value projects. The business also implemented a policy change that limits the bidding pool, resulting in an 80% reduction in low quality bids for specific project categories. In Q226, the business expects to accelerate the automation of support functions and noted that its in-house coding agent, Diffuty, can now process increasingly complex coding tasks, which should support higher coding throughput.

Enterprise

The business expanded its customer base across AI data services, field operations and managed workforce solutions and has contracts and pilots at various stages of execution across digital payments, customer experience and AI data services. Notable events in Q126:

  • Freelancer has worked with NASA since 2015 managing crowdsourcing for innovation, and in Q126, the Artemis II mission carried with it Rise, a soft toy that is used as a zero-gravity indicator (ZGI). The toy was designed by a participant in the Moon Mascot: NASA Artemis II ZGI Design Challenge managed by Freelancer for NASA.
  • The UN Development Programme has engaged Freelancer to crowdsource affordable tools for the detection and marking of underwater explosive ordnance.
  • The business signed its first commercial partner for the Freelancer Moonshot Innovation Programme (built on the proprietary model developed for NASA), launching a challenge to produce physics-based AI modelling to predict the particle distribution and aftermath of high-energy disruptive events.

Loadshift

In Q126, the business saw revenue growth of 6.8% y-o-y and GMV growth of 5.7% y-o-y. Job postings increased 18.3% y-o-y to 12,518 and awards increased 9.6% to 3,359, resulting in a decrease in the award rate to 26.8% from 28.9% in Q125 and 27.1% in Q425. Delivered loads increased 11.6% y-o-y to 2,785. The Iran-related increase in fuel prices drove higher quoting levels resulting in increased job repostings, which in turn reduced the award rate. We estimate fuel price volatility could dampen freight volumes for at least the current quarter.

Escrow division: An exceptional quarter

In Q126, the division grew GMV and revenue by 18.9% y-o-y with a take rate of 1.48%, flat y-o-y. This was the second-highest revenue quarter in its history. Domain name GMV was US$128m/A$184m, up 19.6% y-o-y and making up 78% of divisional GMV, helped by growing demand for the .ai domain. The company also noted strength from IPv4 deals. As noted above, operating profit was at a record level.

Outside the core domain names business, Escrow.com continues to develop partnerships in other verticals including e-commerce, global trade, B2B electronics and IPv4.

As we have previously discussed, the business is working on operational improvements, in particular to bring automation to manual processes and to strengthen its payments infrastructure. The migration of the front-end to the Freelancer technology stack is underway with go-live expected in Q226.

Outlook and changes to forecasts

We have revised our forecasts to reflect Q126 performance. For Freelancer, we have reduced our core marketplace GMV assumptions for the remainder of the year, assuming that y-o-y growth resumes in Q426. We assume that the company manages its cost base in response to lower volumes in the Freelancer division, and we reduce our headcount growth assumptions for FY26 and FY27. Overall, we reduce our FY26 revenue forecast by 8.1% and FY27 by 7.7%. This results in a reduction in FY26 adjusted EBIT from A$2.3m to A$0.5m and in FY27 from A$3.0m to A$2.1m.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Freelancer and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Freelancer. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright 2026 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or sol icitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on Freelancer

View All

Latest from the TMT sector

View All TMT content

Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Honing Q126 forecasts

WPM’s Q126 financial results are scheduled for release on 7 May. To date, production from Vale (pertaining to Salobo, Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay) and from Artemis (pertaining to Blackwater) has been broadly in line with our expectations. However, metals prices have fallen by c 7% since our last note, driven by forced liquidations since the start of the Iran war, which has caused us to reduce our Q126 EPS forecast by a barely material 6.5% to US$1.234/share and our FY26 EPS forecast by 10.3% to US$5.029/share. In this respect, we observe that we are now at the more conservative end of the market range. Note that, if current metals prices prevail into next year, our FY27 EPS forecast rises from that shown below to US$6.46/share.

Continue Reading
Cookie Policy Overview
Edison Group

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping us understand which section of the website you find more interesting and useful. See our Cookie Policy for more information.

Strictly necessary and functional

These cookies are used to deliver our website and content. Strictly necessary cookies relate to our hosting environment, and functional cookies are used to facilitate social logins, social sharing and rich-media content embeds.

Advertising

Advertising Cookies collect information about your browsing habits such as the pages you visit and links you follow. These audience insights are used to make our website more relevant.

Performance

Performance Cookies collect anonymous information designed to help us improve the site and respond to the needs of our audiences. We use this information to make our site faster, more relevant and improve the navigation for all users.