Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP2.37
▲ 5.00 (2.16%)
Market capitalisation
GBP701m
Research: Financials
Funding Circle has upgraded guidance and expressed growing confidence, having hit its previous FY26 revenue target a year early. Management now guides to revenue of c £235m and PBT of at least £35m in FY26, with medium-term ambitions of £300–350m of revenue and PBT margins in the low-to-mid 20s by FY29. The investment case, in our view, rests on a point the market too often overlooks: Funding Circle is not a tech-enabled bank but a genuine fintech, a capital-light platform that facilitates credit rather than carrying it.
Funding Circle originates loans to UK SMEs but largely does not fund them. Around 96% of loans under management are funded by 150-plus institutional investors, many of them pension funds with long-term liabilities and no risk of a run. Term Loans, 82% of FY25 revenue, produce transaction fees of c 6.5% of credit extended plus servicing fees of c 1.3% per year on assets under management; FlexiPay and the Cashback Credit Card add 18%. The real engine is data and credit assessment: over 10bn data points and a ninth-generation AI risk model delivering three times better risk discrimination than bureau scores. In facilitating loans and assessing credit without taking risk, the model resembles a credit-data business like Experian more than the high-street banks the shares are too often screened against.
Funding Circle pre-arranges committed institutional funding, £2.2bn at December 2025, matched to the loans it originates, and holds only c 4% of the book on its own balance sheet. For Term Loans it takes neither the credit nor the liquidity risk; that sits with the funder. The point extends beyond the income statement: as public guarantees are increasingly called on to fund health-, climate- and defence-tech, de-risking traditional banking's maturity mismatch should rise up the policy agenda, and Funding Circle's model speaks directly to it. In our view this is a genuinely lower-risk profile than a balance-sheet lender's and could justify a higher multiple.
Funding Circle is capital light, cash generative and growing profits quickly, with PBT up c 70% in FY25, yet it trades on roughly 10.9x consensus FY27 earnings, a discount to the fintech and data peers it resembles. The completed £75m buyback, c 17% of issued capital, underlines management's confidence. We see two re-rating catalysts: continued delivery against guidance and wider recognition that a platform bearing little of a bank's funding and liquidity risk should not be valued like one. We believe the risk/reward remains skewed to the upside.
|
Consensus estimates |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year end | PBT (£m) | Net income (£m) | EPS (p) | DPS (p) | P/E (x) | Yield (%) |
| 12/25 | 20.3 | 204.3 | 14.60 | 0.00 | 10.1 | N/A |
| 12/26e | 34.9 | 235.0 | 8.60 | 0.40 | 17.2 | 0.3 |
| 12/27e | 51.1 | 263.6 | 13.60 | 2.10 | 10.9 | 1.4 |
General disclaimer and copyright
This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.
Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.
Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.
No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.
Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.
Copyright 2026 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).
Australia
Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.
New Zealand
The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.
United Kingdom
This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or sol icitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.
This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.
United States
Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
London │ New York │ Frankfurt
20 Red Lion Street
London, WC1R 4PS
United Kingdom
Research: Consumer
The London Tunnels (TLT) represents a unique opportunity in the leisure sector, centred on the redevelopment of the Kingsway Exchange Tunnels into a large-scale heritage and cultural attraction in central London. The scarcity of the asset, both in its historical context and physical scale, underpins its potential appeal. As the project is still in the construction phase and currently expected to be operational in 2028, it may be some years before it reaches maturity. The valuation is highly sensitive to the timing and quantum of visitor numbers, their associated spend while visiting the attraction and the costs to attract and serve them. Our ‘central’ model, which assumes the attraction draws three million visitors per year by FY32, suggests a current value of U$5.15–5.71 per share at