Last close As at 05/08/2026
USD8.13
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
USD1,463m
Research: Real Estate
Dar Global’s expansion into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is, in our view, an attractive and low risk move, entirely in keeping with the company’s ambition to roll out its ‘capital-light’ business model to attractive new locations. Dar Global is in the early stages of delivering over 5,700 residences in the Middle East and Europe and retains an ambition to expand the portfolio beyond KSA and to develop a hospitality portfolio. We anticipate that Dar Global will generate a return on equity in the high teens and we value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17/share), implying c 40% upside.
Dar Global |
Geographical expansion into Saudi Arabia |
Strategic announcement |
Construction and materials |
14 November 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Dar Global is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Dar Global’s expansion into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is, in our view, an attractive and low risk move, entirely in keeping with the company’s ambition to roll out its ‘capital-light’ business model to attractive new locations. Dar Global is in the early stages of delivering over 5,700 residences in the Middle East and Europe and retains an ambition to expand the portfolio beyond KSA and to develop a hospitality portfolio. We anticipate that Dar Global will generate a return on equity in the high teens and we value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17/share), implying c 40% upside.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
P/NAV |
12/22 |
80.0 |
28.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
268.8 |
61.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
11.4 |
1.5 |
12/24e |
309.4 |
85.3 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
1.3 |
12/25e |
391.6 |
109.8 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
6.3 |
1.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Dar Global’s expansion into the KSA is entirely consistent with its existing strategy to develop luxury branded developments in attractive locations. In the KSA, Dar Global will target an international client base, while Dar Al Arkan will continue to develop a range of projects focused on domestic customers and domestic investors.
Despite the energy-based wealth of the KSA, it is part way through an ambitious project on an unprecedented scale called Saudi Vision 2030, which was launched in 2016. The purpose of the project is to reduce the country’s reliance on oil and gas and develop other industries such as clean energy, hospitality and tourism, while supporting social and cultural change. Projects include NEOM, a US$500bn, 26,500sq km urban development and a US$200bn renewable energy project. In total, we believe the investment could be more than US$1.25tn.
Dar Global and its parent Dar Al Arkan signed a relationship agreement (RA) prior to the flotation of the former, which limits the latter’s ability to compete with Dar Global anywhere in the world outside of the KSA while it is a major shareholder. There are further limitations on its international activity should it ‘not be considered to be part of the same undertaking’. The RA, however, did not exclude Dar Global from entering the vast and fast-growing market of KSA. A recent survey by Knight Frank found that 40% of KSA homeowners are looking for a second home, and that 69% of high-income earners are ‘likely to purchase a branded residence’ in 2023.
Dar Global retains a desire to expand into hospitality assets and has already announced a partnership with Dolce & Gabbana in the Maldives. This move into the KSA sits alongside this aim, leveraging on the diversification and expansion of the economy away from energy and into other industries.
We initiated research coverage of Dar Global earlier this month with a company valuation of US$930m or US$5.17 per share, which implies c 40% upside. Our initiation report can be found here.
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Research: Healthcare
At its Q323 update Nicox reiterated its guidance that it expects to report primary efficacy data for the Denali study in 2025. Denali is the company’s second Phase III study assessing lead candidate NCX-470, a nitric oxide (NO) donating bimatoprost, in the treatment of elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension (OHTN). The next clinical catalyst is the initiation of the Phase IIIb Whistler trial in Q423, which aims to assess NCX-470’s dual mechanisms of action (NO-release and uveoscleral outflow). The results (anticipated near YE24) could help differentiate NCX-470 from competing glaucoma therapeutics. At 30 September gross cash was at €14.6m, which we expect to provide a cash runway into June 2024, while the company continues to seek partnerships for NCX-470. After rolling forward our estimates, we obtain an equity valuation of €119.4m, or €2.38 per basic share.