viom-agkastaseis-4-from co website

Recovery in oil demand supports operations

Hellenic Petroleum 23 November 2021 Update
Download PDF

Hellenic Petroleum

Recovery in oil demand supports operations

Q321 results

Oil & gas

23 November 2021

Price

€6.05

Market cap

€1,849m

US$1.12/€

Net debt (€m) at 30 September 2021 (excluding lease liabilities)

1,866

Shares in issue

305.6m

Free float

19%

Code

ELPE

Primary exchange

ASE

Secondary exchange

LSE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.6)

8.2

18.9

Rel (local)

(2.3)

4.9

(8.8)

52-week high/low

€6.59

€5.11

Business description

Hellenic Petroleum operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 344kbod. It has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Next events

Q421 results

24 February 2022

Analysts

Marta Szudzichowska

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

James Magness

+44 (0)20 3077 5756

Hellenic Petroleum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% from Q320 (€66m), with improved performance across all segments. We expect it to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher demand for transport fuels in the coming months due to increased economic activity. However, this should be partially offset by higher operating costs due to sharply rising energy prices.

Year-end

Revenue
(€m)

Adjusted EBITDA* (€m)

Net debt**
(€m)

P/E
(x)

Dividend yield
(%)

12/19

8,857

570

1,544

10.0

8.3

12/20

5,782

333

1,673

N/A

1.7

12/21e

8,639

379

1,841

22.4

2.3

12/22e

8,869

624

1,558

8.0

5.0

Note: *Adjusted numbers account for inventory movements and other one-off items. **Net debt excludes lease liabilities.

Improvement in refining environment

The strong Q321 performance was driven by a significant increase in benchmark margins ($3.3/bbl versus -$0.8/bbl in Q320), higher fuel demand and operational improvements. However, at the profit level it was partially offset by high carbon costs and exceptionally high energy costs. As natural gas and electricity prices have been higher than expected and remain so, we have updated our assumptions, which translates into a 15% reduction in our FY21 EBITDA estimate (-32% in refining). With the realisation of Vision 2025, this could be mitigated by electricity generation from renewables.

Restructuring is ongoing

Hellenic is progressing with the demerger of its refining, supply, trading and petrochemical businesses, subject to final approval by shareholders at its general meeting in December. The resultant new company structure will support the growth of its clean energy activities via appropriate financing and increase Hellenic’s value transparency. Meanwhile, the company confirmed the planned start of a 204MW photovoltaic park in Kozani in Q122 and has an additional c 700MW in its renewable energy sources portfolio at an advanced permitting stage.

Sale of DEPA may boost dividend in 2022

Hellenic expects the sale of DEPA Infrastructure (in which Hellenic owns a 35% share) to be completed in H122, subject to regulatory approvals. Management indicated that it plans to return 50% of the proceeds to shareholders in FY22, equating to c €128m or €0.42 per share. This is in addition to the annual dividend, which the company expects to be higher than in 2021 (€0.10).

Valuation: Blended valuation of €6.91/share

Our valuation is based on the company's current state, and is derived from a blend of DCF, EV/EBITDA and P/E. Hellenic is trading at a premium to European peers (6.6x FY22e EV/EBITDA versus 5.0x and 8.2x FY22e P/E versus 7.3x). Our valuation increases to €6.91/share from €6.80/share, reflecting higher peer group multiples, while our DCF valuation is unchanged at €7.41/share.

Strong demand and margins support earnings growth

In Q321, Hellenic reported adjusted EBITDA of €125m versus €66m in Q320 and €79m in Q221, mainly driven by the recovery in oil demand and improved benchmark refining margins following several quarters of historic lows. Apart from factors related to market conditions (Exhibit 1), Q321 performance was supported by operational improvement in refining and marketing, with the first results from the strategic transformation programmes (digital transformation and procurement). However, that was partially offset by a significant increase in variable operating costs, owing to a sharp rise in international natural gas prices to multi-year highs (€49/MWh in Q321, up c 500% year-on-year), which affected electricity prices, along with a significant increase in the carbon price (average of €59/tonne in Q321, up c 110% y-o-y).

Exhibit 1: Adjusted EBITDA bridge (Q321 versus Q320)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Benchmark refining margins improved

Refining margins recovered to pre-pandemic levels in Q321, supported by widening crude oil differentials following the output increase by OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies) as well as higher demand for the main product cracks. Refining benchmark margins improved further in October, reaching $6.4/bbl (fluid catalytic cracking) and $6.2/bbl (hydrocracking). The October increase is shown in Exhibits 2 and 3. Management expects higher benchmark margins along with an increase in sales (due to higher demand) to positively affect refining profitability in Q421 as well.

Exhibit 2: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for fluid catalytic cracking

Exhibit 3: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for hydrocracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 2: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for fluid catalytic cracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 3: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for hydrocracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

In Q321, crude oil prices averaged US$73/bbl compared with US$69/bbl in Q221 and were significantly higher than the 2020 average of US$42/bbl. A further increase was observed in October and November, with crude oil prices above US$80/bbl. If the high pricing environment continues, at some point it may affect fuel demand adversely. However, in the near term, on a reported basis, high oil prices allow Hellenic to recover the inventory losses it reported in FY20.

Demand recovery

In Q321, demand for Greek domestic market fuels rose 8% y-o-y to 1.6m metric tons (MT) (Exhibit 4), almost returning to 2019 levels. This was driven by an increase in mobility following the lifting of travel restrictions, along with increased economic activity and a recovery in tourism. Although significantly rising y-o-y, aviation fuel consumption, supported by a recovery in tourism (476k MT versus 218k MT), was still 20% lower than in Q319. As for bunker fuel, demand increased to 712k MT (+28% y-o-y), but was still significantly lower than Q319 (Exhibit 5).

Exhibit 4: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Exhibit 5: Aviation and bunker fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 4: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 5: Aviation and bunker fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

With an improving overall macroeconomic environment, we expect domestic traffic and air travel to remain favourable, driving demand for road and jet fuel in Greece and its neighbouring countries. This should benefit Hellenic in Q421. However, a sustained recovery in the macroeconomic environment may depend on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Financials

Changes to estimates

In Q321, energy costs were unexpectedly high due to a sharp rise in natural gas and electricity prices (€26m ahead of our previous forecast). As we expect those prices to remain high, we have increased costs in Q421 by €30m versus our previous estimates. The refining benchmark margin of $3.3/bbl in Q321 was significantly higher than -$0.8/bbl in Q320, but below our expectations of $4.0/bbl. We have increased the Q421 refining margin to $4.0/bbl from US$3.0/bbl on the back of favourable October margins (implying $5.0/bbl). This translated into a net 32% reduction in our EBITDA refining forecasts for FY21, while our FY21 total adjusted EBITDA estimate is 15% below our previous forecast (Exhibit 6).

Our FY22 EBITDA forecast remains broadly unchanged. We expect higher operating costs (due to high electricity and natural gas prices) to be balanced by higher refining margins ($3.3/bbl from US$2.9/bbl) and a favourable exchange rate (stronger US dollar). Net income in FY22 should also be supported by the reduction in finance costs as Hellenic paid down €200m debt (with a 4.875% interest rate) in October.

Exhibit 6: Changes to Edison forecasts

€m

Actual

Edison new

Edison old

Difference (%)

 

FY20

FY21e

FY22e

FY21e

FY22e

FY21e

FY22e

Adjusted EBITDA, refining

187

132

380

194

379

-32%

0%

Adjusted EBITDA, petrochemicals

61

141

109

146

108

-4%

1%

Adjusted EBITDA, marketing

97

122

121

117

119

5%

1%

Adjusted EBITDA, RES

-

-

18

-

18

-

-

Total adjusted EBITDA

333

379

624

448

624

-15%

0%

Adjusted EBIT

85

133

373

203

377

-34%

-1%

Finance costs

(115)

(103)

(80)

(103)

(85)

-1%

-5%

Adjusted net income

5

83

231

117

227

-29%

2%

Source: Hellenic Petroleum data, Edison Investment Research

Net debt

The balance sheet at end-September showed net debt (excluding lease liabilities) of €1,866m, €193m higher than end-FY20 net debt of €1,673m, as 9M21 cash flow from operations was more than offset by €180m capex (c €100m spent on the Kozani project). Also, 9M21 operating cash flow of €97m was negatively affected by increased inventories (€420m), owing to higher oil prices. In Q421, we expect net cash flow to be broadly neutral, with the unfavourable working capital movement mostly offset by improved operations. Our end-FY21 net debt (excluding lease liabilities) forecast is €1,841m (versus €1,733m previously).

Exhibit 7: Net debt and net debt/EBITDA estimates

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research. Note: Net debt excludes lease liabilities.

Valuation

Our forecasts and valuation are based on the company's current state. We do not include future projects presented in Vision 2025, or any capital expenditure or returns associated with them. We await further information about this from the company. However, we see potential for upside from the new strategy and plan to update our valuation once we have better visibility.

We value Hellenic using a blend of DCF, leveraged and unleveraged EV/EBITDA, and P/E multiples, arriving at a valuation of €6.91/share, 2% above our last published estimate (€6.80/share), primarily on account of higher peer multiples.

Hellenic trades at FY22e multiples of 8.2x P/E and 6.6x EV/EBITDA (FY22 EPS and EBITDA assumptions broadly unchanged versus our previous note), compared with the European group averages of 7.3x and 5.0x, respectively. Hellenic’s EV per complexity-adjusted barrel is higher than the European peer average at $1,377bod.

Our DCF valuation is unchanged at €7.41/share as we keep our forecasts for FY22 and beyond mostly unchanged. We roll our DCF model forward to Q421. Our valuation is based on cash flows to 2035, using a 7% cost of capital. We incorporate a terminal value, which assumes the unwinding of working capital and 1% terminal growth.

Exhibit 8: Hellenic valuation

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 19 November 2021. Range in DCF for ±1% WACC.

Exhibit 9: DCF (€/share) sensitivity to terminal growth and WACC

Terminal growth/

WACC

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

5.0%

9.61

10.17

10.91

11.94

13.49

6.0%

8.07

8.45

8.94

9.59

10.50

7.0%

6.81

7.08

7.41

7.84

8.42

8.0%

5.76

5.95

6.19

6.48

6.87

9.0%

4.86

5.01

5.18

5.39

5.65

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 10: Peer group valuation

 

Market cap
($m)

EV
($m)

P/E
FY21e
(x)

P/E
FY22e
(x)

EV/EBITDA
FY21e
(x)

EV/EBITDA
FY22e
(x)

FCF yield
FY21e
(%)

FCF yield
FY22e
(%)

P/CF
FY21e
(x)

P/CF
FY22e
(x)

Net debt/
EBITDA FY21e
(x)

Net debt/
EBITDA FY22e
(x)

Div yield
FY21e
(%)

Refining capacity
(kbod)

EV/bod of complexity adjusted capacity
($/kbod)

Edison estimate – Hellenic

1,902*

4,147*

22.8

8.2

10.8

6.6

-2.6%

21.7%

8.8

3.4

4.9

2.5

2.2%

344

1,377

Grupa Lotos

2,571

2,917

5.8

6.7

3.3

3.4

-

-

3.6

4.6

0.6

0.6

1.1%

211

1,246

Hellenic Petroleum (consensus)

2,147

4,407

21.0

9.0

8.9

6.2

-

-

3.6

3.2

4.6

3.2

4.1%

344

1,377

Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries

1,776

3,484

9.4

6.1

7.3

5.5

-21.0%

12.5%

3.2

3.2

2.4

1.8

6.6%

186

1,623

Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen

8,050

10,907

4.7

7.3

3.7

4.0

-3.6%

-

2.8

3.3

1.2

1.3

1.1%

718

1,650

Saras

645

1,178

-

-

11.0

4.6

0.3%

12.9%

3.8

3.3

5.6

2.3

0.0%

300

336

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri

3,533

4,581

12.2

7.6

7.3

6.0

7.6%

10.0%

8.5

6.5

2.5

2.0

0.2%

602

800

Europe average

3,120

4,579

10.6

7.3

6.9

5.0

-4.2%

11.8%

4.3

4.0

2.8

1.9

2.2%

394

1,172

CVR Energy

1,605

2,913

-

18.0

9.8

5.1

17.1%

14.7%

3.8

4.2

3.4

1.8

17.8%

185

1,211

HollyFrontier

5,068

7,262

14.2

8.8

6.5

6.0

-3.0%

12.9%

5.4

4.3

1.6

1.1

1.4%

457

1,271

Marathon Petroleum

37,108

58,909

34.5

14.2

8.0

6.5

13.2%

11.7%

9.7

5.3

4.2

3.5

3.9%

2,874

1,934

Phillips 66

30,514

44,985

16.2

10.0

9.1

7.0

9.4%

10.1%

6.6

6.4

2.7

2.1

5.2%

2,184

1,873

Valero Energy

28,238

40,086

-

11.3

9.9

6.0

7.6%

11.2%

6.7

5.2

2.8

1.7

5.7%

3,100

1,134

Americas average

20,507

30,831

21.6

12.5

8.7

6.1

8.8%

12.1%

6.4

5.1

3.0

2.0

6.8%

1,760

1,485

Total average

11,023

16,512

14.7

9.9

7.7

5.5

3.1%

12.0%

5.2

4.5

2.9

1.9

4.3%

1,015

1,314

Total median

3,533

4,581

12.2

9.0

8.0

6.0

7.6%

12.1%

3.8

4.3

2.7

1.8

3.9%

457

1,271

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 19 November 2021. *FX = US$1.12/€

Exhibit 11: Financial summary

IFRS; year-end 31 December

€m

 

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

9,769

8,857

5,782

8,639

8,869

Cost of sales

 

 

(8,770)

(8,052)

(5,818)

(7,785)

(8,228)

Gross profit

 

 

999

805

(36)

855

641

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(475)

(470)

(453)

(444)

(446)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

(10)

6

(13)

2

3

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

 

(19)

2

(587)

279

(175)

Reported EBIT

 

 

514

341

(501)

413

198

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

(146)

(151)

(115)

(103)

(80)

Profit (loss) from JVs / associates (post tax)

 

 

(2)

18

30

47

16

Other income (includes exceptionals)

 

 

2

(1)

5

13

0

Reported PBT

 

 

369

207

(582)

370

133

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(154)

(43)

185

(72)

(33)

Reported net income

 

 

215

164

(397)

298

100

Basic average number of shares, m

 

 

306

306

306

306

306

Basic EPS (€)

 

 

0.7

0.5

(1.3)

1.0

0.3

Adjusted EBITDA

 

 

730

570

333

379

624

Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)

 

 

7.5

6.4

5.8

4.4

7.0

Adjusted EBIT

 

 

533

339

85

133

373

Adjusted PBT

 

 

388

205

5

91

308

Adjusted net income

 

 

296

185

5

83

231

Adjusted EPS (€)

 

 

0.97

0.61

0.04

0.27

0.76

DPS (€)

 

 

0.75

0.50

0.10

0.14

0.30

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

3,269

3,298

3,380

3,415

3,311

Intangible assets

 

 

106

104

106

108

108

Other non-current assets

 

 

529

744

797

823

836

Total non-current assets

 

 

3,903

4,146

4,283

4,346

4,255

Cash and equivalents

 

 

1,276

1,088

1,203

743

1,025

Inventories

 

 

993

1,013

694

1,328

1,100

Trade and other receivables

 

 

822

840

582

643

574

Other current assets

 

 

3

6

12

55

55

Total current assets

 

 

3,094

2,947

2,492

2,768

2,754

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

1,627

1,610

2,131

1,806

1,806

Non-current lease liabilities

 

 

 

169

171

170

170

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

420

448

294

345

345

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

2,047

2,227

2,597

2,322

2,322

Trade and other payables

 

 

1,349

1,402

1,547

1,810

1,646

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

1,109

1,022

745

778

778

Current lease liabilities

 

 

 

31

30

25

25

Other current liabilities

 

 

97

84

8

6

6

Total current liabilities

 

 

2,555

2,539

2,329

2,619

2,455

Equity attributable to company

 

 

2,331

2,262

1,786

2,109

2,168

Non-controlling interest

 

 

64

65

62

64

64

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before tax

 

 

369

207

(582)

370

133

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

197

231

248

246

252

Other adjustments

 

 

237

172

233

245

64

Movements in working capital

 

 

(296)

26

528

(627)

133

Income taxes paid

 

 

(5)

(149)

23

(24)

(33)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

503

486

450

210

549

Capex

 

 

(157)

(241)

(288)

(259)

(148)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

(16)

(5)

(6)

0

0

Other investing activities

 

 

311

29

17

14

5

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

 

138

(218)

(277)

(244)

(142)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

(1)

0

0

0

0

Dividends paid in period

 

 

(151)

(155)

(154)

(32)

(41)

Movements in debt

 

 

(97)

(111)

252

(299)

0

Other financing activities

 

 

4

(160)

(144)

(109)

(83)

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

(244)

(458)

(47)

(439)

(124)

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

397

(189)

125

(474)

283

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

5

2

(11)

13

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

 

1,275

1,088

1,203

743

1,025

Net (debt)/cash (incl. lease liabilities)

 

 

(1,460)

(1,744)

(1,874)

(2,037)

(1,754)

Net (debt)/cash (excl. lease liabilities)

 

 

(1,460)

(1,544)

(1,673)

(1,841)

(1,558)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hellenic Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hellenic Petroleum. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hellenic Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hellenic Petroleum. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Share this with friends and colleagues