viom-agkastaseis-4-from co website

Expect refining earnings turnaround in H2

Hellenic Petroleum 6 September 2021 Update
Download PDF

Hellenic Petroleum

Expect refining earnings turnaround in H2

Results

Oil & gas

6 September 2021

Price

€5.91

Market cap

€1,805m

US$1.19/€

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2021 (excluding lease liabilities)

1,751

Shares in issue

305.6m

Free float

19%

Code

ELPE

Primary exchange

ASE

Secondary exchange

LSE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

1.9

(7.8)

14.3

Rel (local)

(0.3)

(9.8)

(19.3)

52-week high/low

€6.59

€4.14

Business description

Hellenic Petroleum operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 344kbod. It has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Next events

Q321 results

11 November 2021

Capital markets day

Early Q421

Analysts

Marta Szudzichowska

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

James Magness

+44 (0)20 3077 5756

Hellenic Petroleum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q221 EBITDA of €79m This is a 26% increase on Q220 (€63m) and was driven by a strong performance in its petrochemicals and retail marketing activities, offset partially by a weak performance in its refining business. We expect rising demand for transport fuels and higher benchmark refining margins to drive a recovery in refining earnings in H2. Hellenic is also moving toward its Vision 2025 strategy, with the ongoing spin-off of its refining and petrochemical activities and recent corporate governance changes. For now, our valuation is based on the current shape of the company, pending more information on its energy transition strategy.

Year-end

Revenue
(€m)

Adjusted EBITDA* (€m)

Net debt**
(€m)

P/E
(x)

Dividend yield
(%)

12/19

8,857

570

1,544

9.7

8.5

12/20

5,782

333

1,673

N/A

1.7

12/21e

7,555

448

1,733

15.4

3.3

12/22e

7,421

624

1,522

8.0

5.0

Note: *Adjusted numbers account for inventory movements and other one-off items. **Net debt excludes lease liabilities.

Q221 EBITDA supported by petrochemicals business

The good Q221 performance was driven by a record high results in the petrochemicals business and improved operations in fuels marketing, despite weakness in the refining business. In refining, an improvement in benchmark margins ($0.7/bbl versus $0.3/bbl in Q220) and higher sales volumes (up 11% y-o-y) was offset by unplanned maintenance at Hellenic’s Elefsina refinery and higher CO2 emission costs. We expect a significant turnaround in refining earnings in H2, driven by improved fuel demand and higher benchmark margins.

An energy transition pathway

Hellenic is spinning off its refining, supply, trading and petrochemical businesses, subject to the required approvals. The resultant new company structure will support growth of its clean energy activities via appropriate financing as well as increase the company’s value transparency. Hellenic also confirmed its renewable energy sources portfolio target of 2GW by 2030 and the planned start of operation in Q122 of a 204MW photovoltaic (PV) park in Kozani,

Valuation: Blended valuation of €6.80/share

Our valuation is based on the current shape of the company and is derived from a blend of DCF, EV/EBITDA and P/E. Hellenic is trading at a premium to European peers (6.5x FY22e EV/EBITDA versus 5.2x and 8.0x FY22e P/E versus 7.9x). Our blended valuation increases to €6.80/share from €6.73/share, reflecting a higher peer valuation. Our DCF valuation decreases to €7.41/share (previously €7.46), affected by the Q221 results. However, we see potential for upside from the new strategy and plan to update our valuation once we have better visibility.

Strong petrochemicals support earnings growth

In Q221, Hellenic reported adjusted EBITDA of €79m, versus €63m in Q220 and €60m in Q121. This was driven by a record performance in petrochemicals (€45m EBTIDA) due to strong polypropylene (PP) margins (as a result of reduced international PP supply), recovery of auto-fuels demand and improved trading. In the refining business, the positive effect of higher benchmark refining margins was more than offset by unfavourable exchange rate (weaker US dollar) and higher cost for carbon emission rights under a European Union Allowance emissions trading system. Together with other European refiners, Hellenic was affected by the increase in CO2 emission allowance prices (€52/tonne in Q221, up 132% y-o-y) and the reduction in allowances for European manufacturing in phase 4 (2021–2025) of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (11% drop in Hellenic’s allowances for FY21 versus FY20). Additionally, its refinery performance was negatively affected by an unplanned shutdown (resulting in reduced throughput at the flexicoker at its Elefsina refinery), which has now been resolved.

Exhibit 1: Adjusted EBITDA bridge (Q221 versus Q220)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 2: Segmental adjusted EBITDA Q221 versus Q220

Exhibit 3: Segmental adjusted EBITDA H121 versus H120

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: Other includes exploration and production (E&P).

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: Other includes E&P.

Exhibit 2: Segmental adjusted EBITDA Q221 versus Q220

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: Other includes exploration and production (E&P).

Exhibit 3: Segmental adjusted EBITDA H121 versus H120

Source: Hellenic Petroleum. Note: Other includes E&P.

Benchmark refining margins are improving

In H121, crude oil prices rebounded to prepandemic levels, averaging US$69/bbl in Q221 compared to US$61/bbl in Q121, and were significantly higher than the Q420 average of US$43/bbl. Although refining margins were weak, because aviation fuel demand in Hellenic’s key markets remained low, rising travel activity has assisted some improvement in Q2. We expect continued improvement in Q3, driven by continued mobility improvement and removal of uncertainty on the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies to increase supply (end-July). Refining benchmark margins improved in July and August, reaching $5.2/bbl (fluid catalytic cracking) and $2.6/bbl (hydrocracking) in August, Q321-to-date increase is presented in Exhibits 4 and 5. Management expects higher benchmark margins along with an increase in sales (due to higher demand) should return the refining profitability to mid-cycle levels.

Exhibit 4: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for fluid catalytic cracking

Exhibit 5: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for hydrocracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 4: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for fluid catalytic cracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 5: Benchmark margin ($/bbl) for hydrocracking

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Demand growth is also recovering

Demand for refinery products in the Greek domestic market was low in Q221, affected by travel restrictions. However, gradual lifting of the restrictions in the quarter led to 20% higher auto-fuels demand compared to Q220 (up 34% versus Q121), with consumption in June approaching 2019 levels. Total domestic fuel demand decreased 9% compared with last year, to 1.4m metric tons (MT) (Exhibit 6), because of atypical high demand for heating oil in Q220, which normalised in 2021. Bunkering fuel demand increased to 582k MT (+17% y-o-y). Meanwhile aviation fuel consumption, although rising y-o-y (107k MT versus 25k MT), remained 72% lower comparing to 2Q19.

Exhibit 6: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Exhibit 7: Aviation and bunkers fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 6: Domestic market fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

Exhibit 7: Aviation and bunkers fuel demand (MT 000s)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum

With an improving overall macroeconomic environment, we expect further increases in domestic traffic and air travel, driving demand for road and jet fuel in Greece and neighbouring countries. This should benefit Hellenic in Q321. However, the macroeconomic environment is dependent on COVID-19 pandemic developments.

Financials and changes to estimates

Key changes to our near-term financial estimates are due to improved performance in petrochemicals in FY21 (+10% vs previous estimates) on the back of Q2 results and a decrease in refining forecasts to reflect Q2 results. Our H221 forecast for refining remains broadly unchanged and reflects an expected increase in refining margins and higher production as auto-fuel demand rises (with lifted travel restrictions), partially offset by higher CO2 emission costs. Our FY21 total adjusted EBITDA estimate is 9% below our previous forecast, while our FY22 EBITDA remains mostly unchanged.

Exhibit 8: Changes to Edison forecasts

€m

Actual

Edison new

Edison old

Difference (%)

 

FY20

FY21e

FY22e

FY21e

FY22e

FY21e

FY22e

Adjusted EBITDA, refining

187

194

379

253

381

-23%

0%

Adjusted EBITDA, petrochemicals

61

146

108

133

108

10%

0%

Adjusted EBITDA, marketing

97

117

119

117

119

0%

0%

Adjusted EBITDA, RES

-

-

18

-

18

-

-

Total adjusted EBITDA

333

448

624

495

626

-9%

0%

Associates

30

32

10

20

10

65%

0%

Adjusted EBIT

85

203

377

252

379

-19%

0%

Finance costs

(115)

(103)

(85)

(102)

(85)

2%

0%

Adjusted net income

5

117

227

136

228

-13%

0%

Source: Hellenic Petroleum data, Edison Investment Research

Valuation

Our forecasts and valuation are based on the current shape of the company. We do not include future projects presented in Vision 2025, or any capital expenditure or returns associated with them. We await further information about this from the company, although some information may be presented at a capital markets day planned for early Q421.

We value Hellenic using a blend of DCF, leveraged and unleveraged EV/EBITDA, and P/E multiples, arriving at a valuation of €6.80/share, just 1% above our last published estimate (€6.73/share), primarily on account of higher peer group-based valuation.

Hellenic trades at FY22e multiples of 8.0x P/E and 6.5x EV/EBITDA (FY22 EPS and EBITDA assumptions unchanged versus our previous note), compared with the European group averages of 7.9x and 5.2x, respectively. Its EV per complexity-adjusted barrel is higher than the European peer average at $1,419bod. At the same time, it trades at a discount to its US peers on most valuation metrics.

Our DCF valuation has decreased slightly from €7.46 to €7.41 per share due to changes to our FY21 forecasts (lower Q221 results and changes in working capital). Our forecasts for FY22 and beyond remain mostly unchanged. Our valuation is based on cashflows to 2035, using a 7% cost of capital. We incorporate a terminal value, which assumes the unwinding of working capital and 1% terminal growth.

Exhibit 9: Hellenic valuation

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 3 September 2021. Range in DCF for ±1% WACC.

Exhibit 10: DCF (€/share) sensitivity to terminal growth and WACC

Terminal growth/

WACC

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

5.0%

9.89

10.43

11.14

12.14

13.64

6.0%

8.22

8.57

9.03

9.65

10.51

7.0%

6.85

7.10

7.41

7.80

8.33

8.0%

5.72

5.89

6.10

6.37

6.71

9.0%

4.76

4.88

5.03

5.22

5.45

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

End-June balance sheet showed net debt (excluding lease liabilities) of €1,751m, €79m higher compared to the end FY20 net debt of €1,673m, as H121 cash flow from operations was more than offset by €111m capex (c €47m spent for Kozani PV project). H121 operating cash flow of €72m was negatively affected by increased inventories (€385m) driven by higher oil prices. In H221 we expect net cash flow to be broadly neutral, with our forecast end-FY21 net debt (excluding lease liabilities) of €1,733m.

Exhibit 11: Net debt and net debt/EBITDA estimates

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research. Note: Net debt excludes lease liabilities.

Exhibit 12: Peer group valuation

 

Market cap
($m)

EV
($m)

P/E
FY21e
(x)

P/E
FY22e
(x)

EV/EBITDA
FY21e
(x)

EV/EBITDA
FY22e
(x)

FCF yield
FY21e
(%)

FCF yield
FY22e
(%)

P/CF
FY21e
(x)

P/CF
FY22e
(x)

Net debt/
EBITDA FY21e
(x)

Net debt/
EBITDA FY22e
(x)

Div yield
FY21e
(%)

Refining capacity
(kbod)

EV/bod of complexity adjusted capacity
($/kbod)

Edison estimate – Hellenic

1,805

4,049

15.4

8.0

9.0

6.5

4.1%

21.1%

5.4

3.4

3.9

2.4

3.3%

344

1,419

Grupa Lotos

2,804

3,274

9.4

8.9

4.6

4.2

-14.7%

3.9%

4.1

5.1

0.7

0.7

1.1%

211

1,399

Hellenic Petroleum (consensus)

2,145

4,539

20.4

8.8

8.5

6.3

2.8%

-21.7%

3.8

3.3

4.3

3.2

4.1%

344

1,419

Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries

1,795

3,595

8.6

6.2

7.6

5.7

-10.2%

11.7%

3.3

3.3

2.4

1.8

6.9%

186

1,675

Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen

8,375

11,680

7.9

7.9

4.2

4.2

-2.4%

-3.0%

3.5

3.8

1.3

1.3

1.2%

718

1,768

Saras

786

1,264

-

-

9.7

4.8

5.3%

12.3%

5.0

3.4

4.6

2.3

0.0%

300

360

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri

3,139

4,764

16.1

7.4

8.9

6.0

3.8%

6.3%

14.4

5.6

2.9

1.9

0.5%

602

832

Europe average

3,174

4,853

12.5

7.9

7.3

5.2

-2.6%

1.6%

5.7

4.1

2.7

1.9

2.3%

394

1,242

CVR Energy

1,381

2,742

-

40.1

18.6

6.1

16.0%

10.9%

5.0

4.2

7.0

2.3

0.0%

185

1,140

HollyFrontier

4,993

7,293

-

10.0

7.9

4.8

-7.5%

10.2%

8.0

4.4

1.9

1.2

2.1%

457

1,277

Marathon Petroleum

37,169

56,004

-

18.4

7.8

6.6

20.9%

11.2%

7.2

4.9

4.4

3.7

4.0%

2,874

1,838

Phillips 66

30,493

46,152

-

12.1

14.0

8.1

5.4%

9.2%

8.0

6.8

4.1

2.4

5.2%

2,184

1,921

Valero Energy

26,451

38,612

-

13.6

11.4

6.4

6.9%

10.7%

7.5

5.0

3.3

1.9

6.1%

3,100

1,093

Americas average

20,097

30,161

-

18.8

11.9

6.4

8.3%

10.4%

7.1

5.1

4.1

2.3

3.5%

1,760

1,454

Total average

10,866

16,356

12.5

13.3

9.4

5.8

2.4%

5.6%

6.3

4.5

3.3

2.0

2.8%

1,015

1,338

Total median

3,139

4,764

11.0

8.9

8.5

6.0

3.8%

10.2%

5.0

4.4

3.3

1.9

2.1%

457

1,399

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 3 September 2021. *FX = US$1.19/€

Exhibit 13: Financial summary

IFRS; year-end 31 December

€m

 

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Income statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

9,769

8,857

5,782

7,555

7,421

Cost of sales

 

 

(8,770)

(8,052)

(5,818)

(6,665)

(6,733)

Gross profit

 

 

999

805

(36)

890

688

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(475)

(470)

(453)

(433)

(433)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

(10)

6

(13)

3

3

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

 

(19)

2

(587)

281

(120)

Reported EBIT

 

 

514

341

(501)

460

258

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

(146)

(151)

(115)

(103)

(85)

Profit (loss) from JVs / associates (post tax)

 

 

(2)

18

30

32

10

Other income (includes exceptionals)

 

 

2

(1)

5

8

0

Reported PBT

 

 

369

207

(582)

397

183

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(154)

(43)

185

(82)

(46)

Reported net income

 

 

215

164

(397)

315

137

Basic average number of shares, m

 

 

306

306

306

306

306

Basic EPS (€)

 

 

0.7

0.5

(1.3)

1.0

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adjusted EBITDA

 

 

730

570

333

448

624

Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)

 

 

7.5

6.4

5.8

5.9

8.4

Adjusted EBIT

 

 

533

339

85

203

377

Adjusted PBT

 

 

388

205

5

141

302

Adjusted net income

 

 

296

185

5

117

227

Adjusted EPS (€)

 

 

0.97

0.61

0.02

0.38

0.74

DPS (€)

 

 

0.75

0.50

0.10

0.19

0.30

Balance sheet

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

3,269

3,298

3,380

3,411

3,312

Intangible assets

 

 

106

104

106

109

109

Other non-current assets

 

 

529

744

797

821

828

Total non-current assets

 

 

3,903

4,146

4,283

4,340

4,248

Cash and equivalents

 

 

1,276

1,088

1,203

789

1,000

Inventories

 

 

993

1,013

694

1,165

1,045

Trade and other receivables

 

 

822

840

582

594

557

Other current assets

 

 

3

6

12

57

57

Total current assets

 

 

3,094

2,947

2,492

2,605

2,660

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

1,627

1,610

2,131

1,656

1,656

Non-current lease liabilities

 

 

 

169

171

174

174

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

420

448

294

336

336

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

2,047

2,227

2,597

2,166

2,166

Trade and other payables

 

 

1,349

1,402

1,547

1,693

1,607

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

1,109

1,022

745

865

865

Current lease liabilities

 

 

 

31

30

27

27

Other current liabilities

 

 

97

84

8

35

35

Total current liabilities

 

 

2,555

2,539

2,329

2,621

2,535

Equity attributable to company

 

 

2,331

2,262

1,786

2,096

2,145

Non-controlling interest

 

 

64

65

62

62

62

Cashflow statement

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before tax

 

 

369

207

(582)

397

183

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

197

231

248

245

247

Other adjustments

 

 

237

172

233

195

75

Movements in working capital

 

 

(296)

26

528

(460)

70

Income taxes paid

 

 

(5)

(149)

23

(40)

(46)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

503

486

450

336

529

Capex

 

 

(157)

(241)

(288)

(261)

(148)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

(16)

(5)

(6)

0

0

Other investing activities

 

 

311

29

17

10

6

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

 

138

(218)

(277)

(251)

(141)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

(1)

0

0

0

0

Dividends paid in period

 

 

(151)

(155)

(154)

(31)

(88)

Movements in debt

 

 

(97)

(111)

252

(358)

0

Other financing activities

 

 

4

(160)

(144)

(118)

(89)

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

(244)

(458)

(47)

(507)

(177)

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

397

(189)

125

(422)

211

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

5

2

(11)

8

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

 

1,275

1,088

1,203

789

1,000

Net (debt) cash (incl. lease liabilities)

 

 

(1,460)

(1,744)

(1,874)

(1,934)

(1,723)

Net (debt) cash (excl. lease liabilities)

 

 

(1,460)

(1,544)

(1,673)

(1,733)

(1,522)

Source: Hellenic Petroleum, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hellenic Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hellenic Petroleum. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hellenic Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hellenic Petroleum. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Share this with friends and colleagues