Hellenic Petroleum

ASE: ELPE

Market Cap€2053.9m

Last Close €6.72

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 344kbod. It has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

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Investment summary

Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, is moving toward its Vision 2025 strategy, with the ongoing demerger of its refining and petrochemical activities. The company plans to spend c €1.7bn (out of a total €3.5–4bn capital investment plan by 2030) to boost its RES portfolio up to 2GW by 2030. Hellenic reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% y-o-y, with improved performance across all segments. We expect the company to continue to benefit from favorable refining margins and higher demand for transport fuels in coming months due to increased economic activity. However, this should be partially offset by higher operating costs due to rising energy prices. Our valuation stands at €6.91/share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 8857.0 570.0 205.0 60.6 11.1 4.2
2020A 5782.0 333.0 5.0 3.7 181.6 4.6
2021E 8639.0 379.0 91.0 27.1 24.8 9.8
2022E 8869.0 624.0 308.0 75.6 8.9 3.7
Industry outlook

European refining will likely face continued challenges in the coming years as demand falls and refinery systems elsewhere (Asia/United States) hold structural advantages. To offset this, changing regulations should put complex, middle distillate-orientated refineries such as Hellenic’s in a strong position.

Last updated on 18/01/2022
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 1841
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 87
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 7.9 9.5 22.2
Relative* 1.3 3.3 1.9
52-week high/low €6.8/€5.3
*% relative to local index
Key management
George Grigoriou Investor Relations Officer
Vasilis Molfetas IR department
Vasilis Tsaitas Investor Relations Officer

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