Last close As at 05/08/2026
NZD4.75
▲ −0.03 (−0.63%)
Market capitalisation
NZD499m
Research: Healthcare
AFT Pharmaceuticals recently reported its results for H122. Operating revenue grew strongly by 14% year-on-year to NZ$55.5m, despite the impact of COVID-19 across the business (extended lockdowns in Australia and delayed launches in international markets were the biggest COVID-related headwinds). Reported group operating profit was NZ$5.5m compared to NZ$2.4m in the same period a year ago. Importantly, AFT is continuing to guide for operating profit of NZ$18–23m in FY22.
AFT Pharmaceuticals |
14% revenue growth despite COVID-19 headwinds |
Financial update |
Pharma & biotech |
22 November 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
AFT Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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AFT Pharmaceuticals recently reported its results for H122. Operating revenue grew strongly by 14% year-on-year to NZ$55.5m, despite the impact of COVID-19 across the business (extended lockdowns in Australia and delayed launches in international markets were the biggest COVID-related headwinds). Reported group operating profit was NZ$5.5m compared to NZ$2.4m in the same period a year ago. Importantly, AFT is continuing to guide for operating profit of NZ$18–23m in FY22.
Year end |
Revenue (NZ$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/20 |
105.6 |
3.4 |
0.03 |
0.0 |
N/M |
N/A |
03/21 |
113.1 |
8.2 |
0.07 |
0.0 |
70.1 |
N/A |
03/22e |
130.2 |
16.6 |
0.15 |
0.0 |
32.7 |
N/A |
03/23e |
150.3 |
29.4 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
22.3 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Maxigesic oral and IV approvals on track for CY22
AFT previously filed for FDA approval of both the oral and intravenous (iv) forms of Maxigesic. The company expects the FDA to approve the oral version at some point in CY22 and there is a 30 June 2022 PDUFA date for the iv form. With regards to Maxigesic IV, AFT licensed the product in April to Hikma Pharmaceuticals, the third-largest US supplier of generic injectable medicines by volume. The terms of the agreement include up to US$18.8m in upfront, regulatory and commercial milestones and a profit share (US$3.6m was received in H122).
Maxigesic launched in 46 countries
Maxigesic tablets are now sold and launched in 46 countries, up from 43 at the end of March 2021. Recent launches include Switzerland and Greece. The tablets are registered in 51 different countries. Maxigesic IV has been launched in five countries (launched recently in Germany and Austria) but registered in 29.
COVID-19 continues to affect the business
Extended COVID-related lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria hampered over-the-counter (OTC) sales in Australia. Additionally, the Maxigesic IV launches in Germany and Austria were hampered by COVID-19 restrictions on distributors accessing hospitals.
Valuation: NZ$671m or NZ$6.41 per share
We are increasing our valuation from NZ$644m or NZ$6.15 per share to NZ$671m or NZ$6.41 per share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and lower net debt. AFT reported NZ$5.9m in cash and NZ$38.5m in debt at the end of the half year. The company has stated that it will consider a dividend once it has reached a net debt target of NZ$25–30m and has met earnings guidance.
H122 results
AFT reported revenue of NZ$55.5m for the first half of FY22, the period ending 30 September 2021. This represents a 14% increase over the prior year. Revenue in Australia was up 2% to NZ$29.2m. The OTC channel, which represents approximately 59% of revenue for Australia, grew 2% and was hindered by COVID-19 lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria. These lockdowns delayed a number of product launches, which will now occur in H222. Maxigesic sales in Australia were also affected by COVID-19 lockdowns but still grew 18%. The hospital channel, which represents 29% of sales in Australia, fell by 1% due to lower antibiotic sales following a surge last year at the height of the pandemic. The prescription channel, which represents 12% of the country’s sales, grew 13% thanks to new product introductions. Operating profits for Australia rose to NZ$3.6m from NZ$3.2m in H121.
New Zealand revenue was up 15% to NZ$15.8m. The OTC channel (54% of New Zealand sales) grew 13% to NZ$8.6m, reflecting a return to more normal sales growth. Vitamin C Lipo-Sachets and Maxigesic, in particular, helped drive growth in the segment. The company has stated that OTC sales have recently dropped off somewhat due to a re-introduction of lockdowns in Auckland but it expects this to be transitory. The hospital channel (17% of sales) grew 23% to NZ$2.7m due to strong antibiotic sales. The prescription channel grew by 15% to NZ$4.6m. The operating loss (including head office costs) for this region was NZ$1.8m compared to a loss of NZ$1.4m in the same period last year. Excluding head office costs, the region booked an operating profit which increased to NZ$2.0m from NZ$1.7m in the prior-year period.
Asia revenue increased by 32% to NZ$2.9m. The OTC segment grew 11% due to increased online sales to China as well as sales to Hong Kong. The hospital and prescription channels grew 32% due to strong anti-bacterial sales. Operating profit declined to NZ$0.4m from NZ$0.7m due to greater investment in marketing support.
Exhibit 1: H122 results by region
NZ$000s |
Revenues H122 |
Revenues H121 |
Operating profit before tax H122 |
Operating profit before tax H121 |
Australia |
29,201 |
28,552 |
3,620 |
3,195 |
New Zealand |
15,815 |
13,709 |
(1,807)* |
(1,425)* |
Asia |
2,905 |
2,198 |
416 |
721 |
Rest of world |
7,592 |
4,362 |
3,262 |
(69) |
Total |
55,513 |
48,821 |
5,491 |
2,422 |
Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals. Note: *New Zealand profit before tax includes head office expenses.
Rest of world revenues grew by 74% to NZ$7.6m, thanks to a substantial increase in licence income (to NZ$4.8m from NZ$0.3m in the same period last year), largely resulting from licence payments from Hikma for Maxigesic IV. Product sales to licensees and distributors declined 35% to NZ$2.6m as slower sales last year due to the pandemic led to a longer period of time to work through inventory. Operating profit was NZ$3.3m, up from a NZ$0.1m loss in the same period a year ago, mainly due to the Hikma payments.
Maxigesic tablets are now sold and launched in 46 countries, up from 43 at the end of March 2021. Recent launches include Switzerland and Greece. The tablets are registered in 51 different countries. Maxigesic IV is launched in five countries (launched in Germany and Austria recently) but registered in 29. Note that the Maxigesic IV launches in Germany and Austria were hampered by COVID-19 restrictions on distributors accessing hospitals.
AFT previously filed for FDA approval of both the oral and iv forms of Maxigesic. The company expects the FDA to approve the oral version at some point in CY22 and there is a 30 June 2022 PDUFA date for the iv form. With regards to Maxigesic IV, AFT licensed the product to Hikma Pharmaceuticals, the third-largest US supplier of generic injectable medicines by volume, in April. The terms of the agreement include up to US$18.8m in upfront, regulatory and commercial milestones and a profit share. US$3.6m was received in H122 and was related to signing the agreement and filing for FDA approval. An additional US$7.5m in payments will be due on reaching certain milestones leading up to and including the first commercial sale. The remainder of the milestones will be based on sales targets in the US.
With regards to the NasoSURF nasal drug delivery device (intended for medications aimed at a patient’s sinus areas), clinical studies are planned for FY22. The 120-patient Pascomer Phase II/III clinical study has completed enrolment despite COVID-related difficulties and data are expected around the middle of CY22. As a reminder, Pascomer is a topical treatment for facial angiofibromas.
Valuation
We are increasing our valuation from NZ$644m or NZ$6.15 per share to NZ$671m or NZ$6.41 per share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and lower net debt.
Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity table (NZ$/share)
Terminal EBIT margin |
|||||
Terminal revenue growth |
30% |
34% |
36% |
40% |
45% |
-2.0% |
4.29 |
4.66 |
4.84 |
5.21 |
5.67 |
-1.0% |
4.53 |
4.93 |
5.13 |
5.53 |
6.03 |
0.0% |
4.81 |
5.25 |
5.47 |
5.91 |
6.46 |
1.0% |
5.15 |
5.64 |
5.89 |
6.37 |
6.98 |
2.0% |
5.58 |
6.13 |
6.41 |
6.95 |
7.64 |
3.0% |
6.13 |
6.76 |
7.07 |
7.70 |
8.48 |
4.0% |
6.87 |
7.60 |
7.96 |
8.69 |
9.61 |
5.0% |
7.90 |
8.77 |
9.21 |
10.08 |
11.18 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
We have slightly decreased our revenue estimates for FY22 and FY23 by NZ$0.7m, mainly due to lower estimates for Australia, although this was partially offset by higher estimates for Asia. Additionally, we have increased our SG&A estimates for FY22 and FY23 by NZ$0.9m and NZ$1.0m, respectively, due to a higher run rate. We have also increased R&D expense forecasts by NZ$2.7m for both years as the company continues to invest in R&D. Finally, due to net loss carry forwards we have reduced our tax liability estimates for FY22 and FY23 by NZ$1.8m and NZ$2.0m, respectively. We believe the company will be accruing tax liabilities closer to the statutory rate in FY24.
The company reported NZ$5.9m in cash and NZ$38.5m in debt at the end of the half year. We believe AFT will be able to pay down the debt from operating cash flow and does not need additional long-term financing (although it may need to use some short-term facilities for working capital needs). The company has stated that it will consider a dividend once it has reached a net debt target of NZ$25–30m and has met earnings guidance.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
NZ$000 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022e |
2023e |
||
March |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
105,597 |
113,105 |
130,213 |
150,348 |
Cost of Sales |
(57,332) |
(64,364) |
(66,807) |
(72,095) |
||
Gross Profit |
48,265 |
48,741 |
63,406 |
78,253 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
12,522 |
11,813 |
20,511 |
32,987 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
11,708 |
10,994 |
19,692 |
32,168 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(286) |
(286) |
(286) |
(286) |
||
Exceptionals |
9,784 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
21,206 |
10,708 |
19,406 |
31,882 |
||
Net Interest |
(8,329) |
(2,821) |
(3,073) |
(2,731) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,379 |
8,173 |
16,619 |
29,437 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
12,877 |
7,887 |
16,333 |
29,151 |
Tax |
(185) |
(105) |
(450) |
(6,122) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3,194 |
8,068 |
16,169 |
23,315 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
12,692 |
7,782 |
15,883 |
23,029 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
97.3 |
103.3 |
104.7 |
104.7 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
3.3 |
7.1 |
15.4 |
22.3 |
EPS - (reported) (NZ$) |
|
|
0.12 |
0.07 |
0.15 |
0.22 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
45.7 |
43.1 |
48.7 |
52.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
11.9 |
10.4 |
15.8 |
21.9 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
11.1 |
9.7 |
15.1 |
21.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
31,716 |
37,230 |
42,142 |
47,477 |
Intangible Assets |
26,984 |
32,720 |
37,918 |
43,116 |
||
Tangible Assets |
315 |
305 |
402 |
539 |
||
Investments |
4,417 |
4,205 |
3,823 |
3,823 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
55,336 |
67,902 |
73,650 |
90,139 |
Stocks |
22,734 |
33,654 |
34,129 |
37,542 |
||
Debtors |
25,969 |
31,039 |
25,705 |
24,032 |
||
Cash |
6,119 |
3,209 |
13,370 |
28,119 |
||
Other |
514 |
0 |
446 |
446 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(25,102) |
(32,102) |
(25,422) |
(25,775) |
Creditors |
(22,993) |
(26,404) |
(22,981) |
(25,775) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2,000) |
(5,161) |
(2,299) |
0 |
||
Other |
(109) |
(537) |
(142) |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(44,695) |
(36,442) |
(39,190) |
(35,190) |
Long term borrowings |
(41,200) |
(33,200) |
(36,200) |
(32,200) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,495) |
(3,242) |
(2,990) |
(2,990) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
17,255 |
36,588 |
51,180 |
76,651 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
21,999 |
4,292 |
20,963 |
34,040 |
Net Interest |
(6,936) |
(3,437) |
(3,073) |
(2,731) |
||
Tax |
(185) |
(105) |
(450) |
(6,122) |
||
Capex |
(6,562) |
(6,231) |
(6,398) |
(6,439) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
3 |
11,673 |
262 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(566) |
(188) |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
7,753 |
6,004 |
11,303 |
18,749 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
34,834 |
37,081 |
35,152 |
25,129 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(10,000) |
(4,075) |
(1,280) |
2,299 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
37,081 |
35,152 |
25,129 |
4,081 |
Source: company reports, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
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