Q326 reflections: The price of money has changed – the value case holds

Financials

Q326 reflections: The price of money has changed – the value case holds

Bond markets set the agenda in Q3. The Fed and ECB both hiked, the 10-year gilt went through 5% and Brent returned above $100. Multiples compressed everywhere; US earnings absorbed it, UK and European prices did not. But at 12x earnings against a 5.2% gilt, the valuation case has not gone away. It has a higher hurdle to clear, and cross-traded flow on OTC Markets shows US investors are still looking.

Written by

Neil Shah

Executive Director, Market Strategist

We’re pleased to share our Q326 reflections report, produced in collaboration with OTC Markets Group, examining how rising bond yields, renewed monetary tightening and shifting equity valuations are reshaping global markets, while international OTC trading remains resilient despite a more challenging investment environment.

Key highlights:

  • Bond yields climb: Renewed central bank tightening pushes yields higher, raising borrowing costs and investor return expectations.
  • US market concentration: The S&P 500 gains 3.7%, but narrow leadership masks weakness across the broader market.
  • UK valuations: UK equities trade at 12.0x forward earnings, offering an 8.3% earnings yield against higher gilt yields.
  • OTC trading resilience: Dollar volume reaches $203.5bn, up 23.4% year-on-year despite easing from Q2’s record.
  • Regional shifts: London’s share of European trading rises to 23%, while Toronto overtakes London as the second-largest home venue.

The report includes macroeconomic analysis, bond yield trends, equity valuations, sector performance, oil and gas markets, and OTC trading volumes across Europe, Asia and the Americas, including shifts between major exchanges.

Produced in collaboration with OTC Markets Group, this report combines Edison’s equity market expertise with comprehensive OTC Markets trading analytics to provide investors with actionable insights into the European diversification opportunity.

About this report

Reflections is a quarterly review of UK and European markets produced by Edison Group in collaboration with OTC Markets Group, combining fundamental analysis with market data to help investors navigate international equity opportunities.

To read the full report, click the download button at the top of the page.

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Q226 reflections: Leadership swings back – the value case holds

The Iran ceasefire and oil's collapse revived the AI trade and swung market leadership back to the US and growth after a value- and energy-led start to the year. Yet the structural case for UK and European equities – cheaper valuations, stronger shareholder returns and a growing wave of M&A validating those valuations — remains firmly intact.

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