With 2,473 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.
Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.
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Outlook
Richard Hutton
FD
Roisin Currie
CEO
Forecast net cash (£m)
63.6
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (7.8) | 1.1 | 24.1 |
Relative | (7.7) | (0.1) | 9.4 |
52 week high/low | 3190.0p/2296.0p |
Greggs demonstrated continued strong sales growth in Q324, against a challenging Q323 comparative. The company continues to benefit from its multipronged growth strategy of increasing space, extended trading hours, new digital channels and menu development. Management is confident of meeting its full year expectations, helped by marginally lower cost inflation than previously expected.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (£m) | EBITDA (£m) | PBT (£m) | EPS (fd) (p) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 1512.8 | 269.9 | 148.3 | 117.5 | 24.5 | 10.7 |
2023A | 1809.6 | 299.2 | 167.7 | 123.8 | 23.2 | 8.7 |
2024E | 2013.6 | 347.5 | 183.9 | 128.3 | 22.4 | 7.8 |
2025E | 2230.9 | 388.1 | 202.8 | 145.5 | 19.8 | 7.2 |