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Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Last close As at 18/04/2024

GBP27.78

▲ 46.00 (1.68%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,841m

With 2,473 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

View More

Consumer | Outlook

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

Consumer | edison tv

Greggs – executive interview

Consumer | Update

Greggs — A strong finish to FY23

Consumer | Update

Greggs — FY23 profit expectations reiterated
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Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Milo Bussell

Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media

Key Management

  • Richard Hutton

    FD

  • Roisin Currie

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (£m)

195.3

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (2.0) 4.4 0.2
Relative (3.6) (0.7) 0.4
52 week high/low 2904.0p/2282.0p

Financials

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation than FY22. We look for more of the same in FY24, which will be a significant year from a capital investment perspective, and beyond.

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 1229.7 259.0 145.6 114.3 24.3 9.0
2022A 1512.8 269.9 148.3 117.5 23.6 10.4
2023E 1809.6 299.2 167.7 123.9 22.4 8.5
2024E 2013.6 344.5 182.8 131.1 21.2 7.8

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Profit outlook maintained for FY22

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs plc — Not peak Greggs yet

Flash note

Consumer

Greggs — Medium-term growth ambition quantified

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Let’s talk about growth…

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Rate of recovery continues to surprise

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Recovering better than expected

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Looking forward

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — New national lockdown tempers outlook

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Learning to manage

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Gradual recovery expected

Flash note

Consumer

Greggs plc — Protecting employees and customers

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Very tasty

Update

Consumer

Greggs — ‘A very strong finish to a spectacular year’

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Accelerating sales growth

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Continued strong like-for-like sales growth

Update

Consumer

Greggs — More than just the vegan-friendly sausage roll

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Robust trading performance – earnings upgrade

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs — Brand transformation rolls out cash

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — On a roll – unscheduled vegan-driven upgrade

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — An exceptionally strong end to the year

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Raising earnings expectations

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Greggs passes the scorch test

edison tv

Consumer

Executive interview – Greggs

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Transformation taking shape

Update

Consumer

Greggs plc — Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

Outlook

Consumer

Greggs plc — Value discovery

Update

Consumer

Greggs — In balance

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Promising performance, strengthened proposition

research

Consumer

Greggs — Successful strategy offers further potential

Flash note

Consumer

Greggs plc — Update 17 January 2017

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Update 12 October 2016

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Update 3 August 2016

Update

Consumer

Greggs — Update 11 May 2016

Initiation

Consumer

Greggs — Update 25 April 2016