Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.33
▲ −13.00 (−0.67%)
Market capitalisation
GBP1,977m
Research: Consumer
Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was still playing catch-up to the prior and ongoing rapid increases in input costs.
Greggs |
A strong finish to FY23 |
FY23 trading update |
Retail |
11 January 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was still playing catch-up to the prior and ongoing rapid increases in input costs.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
1,229.7 |
145.6 |
114.3 |
97.0 |
22.8 |
3.7 |
12/22 |
1,512.8 |
148.3 |
117.5 |
59.0 |
22.1 |
2.3 |
12/23e |
**1,808.9 |
164.9 |
116.0 |
65.9 |
22.4 |
2.5 |
12/24e |
1,970.5 |
186.0 |
133.3 |
66.6 |
19.5 |
2.6 |
12/25e |
2,196.6 |
207.7 |
148.9 |
74.4 |
17.5 |
2.8 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Reported.
Strong sales growth on tough Q422 comparative
GRG’s FY23 sales of £1,809m included stronger-than-expected trading in Q423, with like-for-like sales in company-managed stores of 9.4%. This rate of growth is impressive, given the strong comparative of 18.2% in Q422, and included the expected slowing from Q323 as the company annualised the price increases made in October 2022. Net new store openings of 145 in the year were towards the upper end of management’s expectations at the interim stage. The indicated year-end cash position of £195m is also better than our previous forecast of £173m, due to more favourable phasing of tax payments from higher capital allowances.
FY23 and FY24 profit estimates unchanged
Management has indicated that FY23 profit is in line with its expectations. For FY24, they have provisionally guided to mid-single-digit cost inflation in FY24, which is significantly better than at the start of FY23. The cost pressures have switched from input costs, such as food and packaging, to staff costs (management has increased pay to above the National Living Wage from the start of January 2024) and c 7% increases in business rates from April. We have increased our FY23 sales to reflect the outperformance versus our expectations but have retained our profit estimate for FY23–25, which are broadly in line with the consensus medians (Source: Refinitiv).
Valuation: Well supported
The share price has rebounded from the more recent lows in October 2023 as some of the consumer sectors have returned to favour. The prospective P/E multiple for FY24 of 19.5x is above the long-term average (since FY13) of c 17x but below the average multiples of recent years of 20x and over.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year-end December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
811.3 |
1,229.7 |
1,512.8 |
1,808.9 |
1,970.5 |
2,196.6 |
Cost of Sales |
(299.6) |
(447.7) |
(574.5) |
(711.5) |
(776.2) |
(868.5) |
||
Gross Profit |
511.7 |
782.0 |
938.3 |
1,097.4 |
1,194.4 |
1,328.1 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
115.4 |
259.0 |
269.9 |
303.2 |
350.1 |
394.6 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
(6.2) |
153.2 |
154.4 |
167.6 |
190.0 |
212.2 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(0.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
16.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(7.0) |
153.2 |
154.4 |
183.9 |
190.0 |
212.2 |
||
Net Interest |
(6.7) |
(7.6) |
(6.1) |
(2.7) |
(4.0) |
(4.5) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(12.9) |
145.6 |
148.3 |
164.9 |
186.0 |
207.7 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(13.7) |
145.6 |
148.3 |
181.2 |
186.0 |
207.7 |
Tax |
0.7 |
(28.1) |
(28.0) |
(45.3) |
(48.4) |
(54.0) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(12.2) |
117.5 |
120.3 |
119.6 |
137.7 |
153.7 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(13.0) |
117.5 |
120.3 |
135.9 |
137.7 |
153.7 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
101.0 |
101.5 |
101.5 |
102.1 |
102.3 |
102.3 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
(12.1) |
114.3 |
117.5 |
116.0 |
133.3 |
148.9 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
(12.9) |
115.7 |
118.5 |
133.1 |
134.6 |
150.3 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.0 |
97.0 |
59.0 |
65.9 |
66.6 |
74.4 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
63.1 |
63.6 |
62.0 |
60.7 |
60.6 |
60.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
14.2 |
21.1 |
17.8 |
16.8 |
17.8 |
18.0 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
(0.8) |
12.5 |
10.2 |
9.3 |
9.6 |
9.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
631.0 |
622.3 |
685.1 |
817.0 |
949.7 |
1,042.9 |
Intangible Assets |
15.6 |
14.9 |
13.5 |
22.0 |
28.5 |
33.4 |
||
Tangible Assets |
345.3 |
343.8 |
390.0 |
501.0 |
612.3 |
685.7 |
||
Right-of-Use Assets |
270.1 |
263.6 |
281.6 |
294.0 |
308.9 |
323.8 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
98.7 |
266.1 |
283.0 |
306.0 |
279.9 |
310.8 |
Stocks |
22.5 |
27.9 |
40.6 |
50.3 |
54.9 |
61.4 |
||
Debtors |
39.4 |
37.6 |
50.2 |
60.0 |
65.4 |
72.9 |
||
Cash |
36.8 |
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.0 |
159.1 |
175.9 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(144.1) |
(206.9) |
(244.1) |
(312.0) |
(329.1) |
(355.5) |
Creditors |
(91.1) |
(153.4) |
(191.7) |
(237.4) |
(259.0) |
(289.8) |
||
Leases |
(48.6) |
(49.3) |
(48.8) |
(50.9) |
(53.5) |
(56.1) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(4.4) |
(4.2) |
(3.6) |
(23.6) |
(16.6) |
(9.6) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(264.0) |
(252.3) |
(284.3) |
(294.5) |
(306.9) |
(319.2) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Leases |
(243.1) |
(233.9) |
(252.5) |
(262.7) |
(275.1) |
(287.4) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(20.9) |
(18.4) |
(31.8) |
(31.8) |
(31.8) |
(31.8) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
321.6 |
429.2 |
439.7 |
516.4 |
593.6 |
679.0 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
61.6 |
312.1 |
272.3 |
350.2 |
365.8 |
415.4 |
Net Interest |
(6.7) |
(7.4) |
(6.1) |
(2.1) |
(3.4) |
(3.9) |
||
Tax |
(10.7) |
(19.2) |
(13.3) |
(25.3) |
(55.4) |
(61.0) |
||
Capex |
(59.8) |
(54.0) |
(100.8) |
(200.0) |
(220.0) |
(200.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
3.7 |
4.6 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
(15.3) |
(98.5) |
(67.4) |
(68.2) |
(76.1) |
||
Borrowings and lease liabilities |
(42.1) |
(49.0) |
(52.7) |
(55.1) |
(57.9) |
(60.7) |
||
Other |
(0.5) |
(10.0) |
(11.0) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(54.5) |
161.8 |
(7.0) |
3.4 |
(36.0) |
16.8 |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
91.3 |
36.8 |
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.0 |
159.1 |
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing cash |
|
|
36.8 |
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.0 |
159.1 |
175.9 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(36.8) |
(198.6) |
(191.6) |
(195.0) |
(159.1) |
(175.9) |
Closing net debt/(cash) including leases |
|
|
254.9 |
84.6 |
109.7 |
118.6 |
169.5 |
167.6 |
Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
Shield Therapeutics has appointed Santosh Shanbhag as chief financial officer (CFO) and member of the executive leadership team. Mr. Shanbhag was previously the CFO of Nasdaq-listed Akili, which he helped grow and take public. Before Akili, he held senior finance positions at Vertex Pharmaceuticals, where he worked on business and corporate development and helped secure reimbursement for novel drugs in key international markets. We expect Shield to leverage Mr. Shanbhag’s US healthcare experience, which should support the company in optimising pricing and expand payor coverage for Accrufer.