Greggs - Edison Group

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Sector insights
Thematics

With 2,473 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

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Consumer |
Outlook

02.04.24

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

Consumer |
edison tv

26.03.24

Greggs – executive interview

Consumer |
Update

11.01.24

Greggs — A strong finish to FY23

Consumer |
Update

03.10.23

Greggs — FY23 profit expectations reiterated

Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media

Key Management

Richard Hutton

FD
Roisin Currie

CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (£m)

195.3

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	(1.1)	5.2	(1.2)
Relative	(2.3)	(0.9)	(3.0)
52 week high/low	2904.0p/2282.0p

Financials

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation than FY22. We look for more of the same in FY24, which will be a significant year from a capital investment perspective, and beyond.

Y/E Dec	Revenue (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	PBT (£m)	EPS (fd) (p)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2021A	1229.7	259.0	145.6	114.3	24.3	9.0
2022A	1512.8	269.9	148.3	117.5	23.7	10.4
2023E	1809.6	299.2	167.7	123.9	22.4	8.5
2024E	2013.6	344.5	182.8	131.1	21.2	7.8

Research

Update

Consumer

04.10.22

Greggs plc — A ‘relative winner’

Update

Consumer

04.08.22

Greggs plc — Strong H122 trading and progress on strategy

Consumer

Update

Greggs plc — Eye-catching revenue growth

Update

Consumer

17.05.22

Greggs — Profit outlook maintained for FY22

Outlook

Consumer

15.03.22

Greggs plc — Not peak Greggs yet

Flash note

Consumer

06.10.21

Greggs — Medium-term growth ambition quantified

Update

Consumer

06.08.21

Greggs — Let’s talk about growth…

Update

Consumer

28.06.21

Greggs — Rate of recovery continues to surprise

Update

Consumer

11.05.21

Greggs — Recovering better than expected

Update

Consumer

17.03.21

Greggs — Looking forward

Update

Consumer

07.01.21

Greggs plc — New national lockdown tempers outlook

Update

Consumer

30.09.20

Greggs — Learning to manage

Update

Consumer

04.08.20

Greggs plc — Gradual recovery expected

Flash note

Consumer

24.03.20

Greggs plc — Protecting employees and customers

Update

Consumer

04.03.20

Greggs — Very tasty

Update

Consumer

08.01.20

Greggs — ‘A very strong finish to a spectacular year’

Update

Consumer

12.11.19

Greggs — Accelerating sales growth

Update

Consumer

01.10.19

Greggs — Continued strong like-for-like sales growth

Update

Consumer

06.08.19

Greggs — More than just the vegan-friendly sausage roll

Update

Consumer

14.05.19

Greggs — Robust trading performance – earnings upgrade

Outlook

Consumer

14.03.19

Greggs — Brand transformation rolls out cash

Update

Consumer

19.02.19

Greggs plc — On a roll – unscheduled vegan-driven upgrade

Update

Consumer

09.01.19

Greggs plc — An exceptionally strong end to the year

Update

Consumer

28.11.18

Greggs plc — Raising earnings expectations

Update

Consumer

09.10.18

Greggs plc — Greggs passes the scorch test

edison tv

Consumer

09.08.18

Executive interview – Greggs

Update

Consumer

03.08.18

Greggs plc — Transformation taking shape

Update

Consumer

10.05.18

Greggs plc — Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

Outlook

Consumer

14.03.18

Greggs plc — Value discovery

Update

Consumer

09.08.17

Greggs — In balance

Update

Consumer

22.05.17

Greggs — Promising performance, strengthened proposition

research

Consumer

06.03.17

Greggs — Successful strategy offers further potential

Flash note

Consumer

17.01.17

Greggs plc — Update 17 January 2017

Update

Consumer

12.10.16

Greggs — Update 12 October 2016

Update

Consumer

03.08.16

Greggs — Update 3 August 2016

Update

Consumer

11.05.16

Greggs — Update 11 May 2016

Initiation

Consumer

25.04.16

Greggs — Update 25 April 2016

Further insights

insight

Consumer

04.09.18

The UK restaurant market

Analyst of the week

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

rpointon@edisongroup.com 020 3077 5700

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