Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.33
▲ −13.00 (−0.67%)
Market capitalisation
GBP1,977m
Research: Consumer
Greggs demonstrated continued strong sales growth in Q324, against a challenging Q323 comparative. The company continues to benefit from its multipronged growth strategy of increasing space, extended trading hours, new digital channels and menu development. Management is confident of meeting its full year expectations, helped by marginally lower cost inflation than previously expected.
Greggs |
Good Q324 on strong comparative |
Q324 trading update |
Retail |
1 October 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
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GreggsGreggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Greggs demonstrated continued strong sales growth in Q324, against a challenging Q323 comparative. The company continues to benefit from its multipronged growth strategy of increasing space, extended trading hours, new digital channels and menu development. Management is confident of meeting its full year expectations, helped by marginally lower cost inflation than previously expected.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
1,512.8 |
148.3 |
117.5 |
59.0 |
26.6 |
1.9 |
12/23 |
1,809.6 |
167.7 |
123.8 |
102.0 |
25.2 |
3.3 |
12/24e |
2,013.6 |
183.9 |
128.3 |
71.0 |
24.3 |
2.3 |
12/25e |
2,230.9 |
202.8 |
145.5 |
72.7 |
21.5 |
2.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Good growth on tough comparative
Greggs’ Q324 total and like-for-like (in company-managed stores) sales growth of 10.6% and 5%, respectively, compounded the strong growth rates reported in the comparative Q323 period of c 21% and 14%, respectively. There has been a natural minor slowing in the growth rate since H124 as inflationary pressures have eased, leading to smaller and fewer price increases than required through FY22 and FY23. Management pointed to slightly slower rates of growth in July and August, due to the holiday period and some negative effect from the riots, and higher growth in September as these ended. The Q324 performance took the year-to-date revenue growth rates to 12.7% and 6.5%, respectively. Management indicated that both delivery and evening growth was ahead of the overall average. Greggs has added 86 net new shops year to date, broadly similar to the 82 added by the same stage last year. Management is confident of meeting the 140–160 net new openings for the year, likely to be in the middle of the range, suggesting another busy final quarter.
FY24 estimates unchanged
Our underlying FY24 estimates are unchanged as the trimming of management’s expected underlying cost inflation to be at the lower end of the previously indicated 4–5% range (mainly due to lower than expected pork prices) is countered by the indicated relative lower sales growth in July and August. Q424 has a revenue headwind versus Q324 from the price increases made in October 2022 that annualised in October 2023, and the fast roll-out of the delivery offer on the Uber Eats platform through October 2023. We have incorporated a c £14m exceptional gain for the completed sale of a manufacturing site in Twickenham, which management indicated may happen at the time of the H124 results.
Valuation: In line with recent average multiples
The prospective P/E multiples for FY24 and FY25 of 24.3x and 21.5x compare with more recent average multiples of c 21x and a premium to the post-FY15 (excluding COVID-affected FY20 and FY21) average of 19.0x. The share price is at a modest discount to our unchanged DCF-based valuation of £31.90 per share.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
||
Year-end December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,512.8 |
1,809.6 |
2,013.6 |
2,230.9 |
2,465.1 |
Cost of Sales |
(574.5) |
(710.5) |
(790.1) |
(881.3) |
(979.7) |
||
Gross Profit |
938.3 |
1,099.1 |
1,223.5 |
1,349.6 |
1,485.4 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
269.9 |
299.2 |
347.5 |
388.1 |
414.9 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
154.4 |
171.7 |
191.6 |
214.0 |
230.7 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
20.6 |
14.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating Profit |
154.4 |
192.3 |
205.6 |
214.0 |
230.7 |
||
Net Interest |
(6.1) |
(4.0) |
(7.7) |
(11.2) |
(11.7) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
148.3 |
167.7 |
183.9 |
202.8 |
219.0 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
148.3 |
188.3 |
197.9 |
202.8 |
219.0 |
Tax |
(28.0) |
(41.0) |
(51.4) |
(52.7) |
(56.9) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
120.3 |
126.7 |
132.4 |
150.1 |
162.0 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
120.3 |
142.5 |
146.4 |
150.1 |
162.0 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
101.5 |
101.3 |
102.2 |
102.2 |
102.2 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
117.5 |
123.8 |
128.3 |
145.5 |
157.1 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
118.5 |
140.6 |
143.3 |
146.9 |
158.6 |
Dividend per share (p) |
59.0 |
102.0 |
71.0 |
72.7 |
78.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
62.0 |
60.7 |
60.8 |
60.5 |
60.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
17.8 |
16.5 |
17.3 |
17.4 |
16.8 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
10.2 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.6 |
9.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
685.1 |
825.2 |
1,081.6 |
1,210.6 |
1,282.1 |
Intangible Assets |
13.5 |
18.3 |
25.2 |
29.0 |
30.3 |
||
Tangible Assets |
390.0 |
510.3 |
684.8 |
792.0 |
844.3 |
||
Right-of-Use Assets |
281.6 |
296.6 |
371.7 |
389.6 |
407.6 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
283.0 |
297.9 |
177.8 |
174.0 |
235.7 |
Stocks |
40.6 |
48.8 |
54.3 |
60.5 |
67.3 |
||
Debtors |
50.2 |
53.8 |
59.9 |
66.3 |
73.3 |
||
Cash |
191.6 |
195.3 |
63.6 |
47.1 |
95.1 |
||
Other |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(244.1) |
(272.5) |
(298.8) |
(328.6) |
(360.5) |
Creditors |
(191.7) |
(216.0) |
(239.6) |
(266.8) |
(296.0) |
||
Leases |
(48.8) |
(52.5) |
(55.2) |
(57.8) |
(60.5) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(3.6) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(284.3) |
(326.3) |
(398.7) |
(414.0) |
(429.3) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Leases |
(252.5) |
(267.1) |
(339.5) |
(354.8) |
(370.1) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(31.8) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
(59.2) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
439.7 |
524.3 |
561.9 |
642.0 |
728.1 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
272.3 |
333.0 |
378.6 |
407.5 |
435.4 |
Net Interest |
(6.1) |
(4.2) |
(7.0) |
(10.5) |
(11.0) |
||
Tax |
(13.3) |
(11.9) |
(51.4) |
(52.7) |
(56.9) |
||
Capex |
(100.8) |
(197.3) |
(280.0) |
(225.0) |
(175.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
3.1 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
||
Dividends |
(98.5) |
(60.8) |
(113.1) |
(74.3) |
(80.3) |
||
Borrowings and lease liabilities |
(52.7) |
(53.7) |
(57.3) |
(60.0) |
(62.8) |
||
Other |
(11.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(7.0) |
3.7 |
(131.7) |
(16.5) |
48.0 |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
198.6 |
191.6 |
195.3 |
63.6 |
47.1 |
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing cash |
|
|
191.6 |
195.3 |
63.6 |
47.1 |
95.1 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(191.6) |
(195.3) |
(63.6) |
(47.1) |
(95.1) |
Closing net debt/(cash) including leases |
|
|
109.7 |
124.3 |
331.0 |
365.5 |
335.5 |
Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research
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