Shot of a completed lottery ticket

OPAP

ASE: OPAP

Market Cap€4,807m

Last Close €13.23

OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant and passives, VLTs and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013. Allwyn has a 49.8% stake and significant board representation.

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Investment summary

OPAP’s strategy of greater product innovation, and the resilience of retail revenue despite increased pressures on consumer spending, drove solid revenue growth in Q322. Ongoing cost control led to an impressive improvement in profitability, enabling management to increase its FY22 EBITDA guidance back towards prior guidance from the start of the year (€720m). Despite the relatively strong share price performance in the last 12 months, the prospective FY23 P/E multiple of 10.9x is a 15% discount to its peers, and the dividend yield of 9.2% remains very attractive.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 1129.8 263.9 132.0 31.83 41.6 20.0
2021A 1538.8 551.2 364.6 82.28 16.1 8.7
2022E 2030.9 716.1 560.9 119.59 11.1 7.2
2023E 2100.6 729.4 564.2 118.56 11.2 7.4
Industry outlook

The Hellenic Gaming Commission estimates the total Greek gaming market’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) amounted to €1.86bn in 2021, growth of c 15% in the year as it recovered from the severe drop of 27% in FY20 due to the initial COVID-19 outbreak and its effect on retail businesses. On an absolute basis, 2021’s GGR was equivalent to c 83% of the pre-COVID-19 level of €2.23bn.

Last updated on 30/11/2022
Content on OPAP
OPAP – Resilience prompts FY22 EBITDA upgrade
Consumer | research Update | 28 November 2022
Shot of a completed lottery ticket
OPAP – ‘Hefty’ retail recovery
Consumer | research Update | 15 September 2022
Shot of a completed lottery ticket
OPAP – Strong retail recovery in Q122
Consumer | research Update | 8 June 2022
Shot of a completed lottery ticket
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 225.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 25
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 6.7 0.6 7.8
Relative* 2.2 (5.6) 2.6
52-week high/low €14.6/€11.8
*% relative to local index
Key management
Jan Karas CEO
Pavel Mucha CFO

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