€3200.2m market cap

€9.95 last close

OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and it is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, VLTs, instant and passive lotteries and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013.

Investment summary

OPAP’s Q219 results showed improving sequential trends across all divisions. Gross gaming revenues (GGR) increased 6.5% to €383.6m, driven by a 54.2% increase in video lottery terminals (VLT) GGR and a better lottery performance. After a temporary suspension, the VLT roll-out is now back on track. Alongside the new products, OPAP is successfully containing costs, which contributed to a c 30% increase in net profit. Net debt/LTM EBITDA is only 0.9x and strong cash generation leads to a consistently high dividend payout. OPAP trades at 7.7x EV/EBITDA and 14.6x P/E with a very attractive 9.4% dividend yield for FY20e. OPAP is currently subject to a tender offer by Sazka Group, at €9.12/share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 1455.5 306.5 197.5 42.41 23.5 N/A
2018A 1547.0 353.6 234.9 51.88 19.2 N/A
2019E 1635.0 408.7 271.7 60.47 16.5 N/A
2020E 1845.0 465.0 311.1 66.35 15.0 N/A
Last updated on 16/09/2019
Industry outlook

The Hellenic Gaming Commission estimates that the total legal Greek gaming market amounted to €1.9bn in 2017, of which OPAP comprised €1.37bn gross gaming revenues (including horse racing and Hellenic Lotteries). Land-based casinos comprised an estimated €254m, with online amounting to c €280m.

Last updated on 16/09/2019
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 493.6
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 72
Price performance
Actual 6.9 1.1 10.6
Relative* (2.5) (1.3) (13.2)
52-week high/low €10.3/€7.6
*% relative to local index
Key management
Damian Cope CEO
Nikos Polymenakos Investor Relations Director