OPAP

ASE: OPAP

Market Cap€4,834m

Last Close €13.7

OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant and passives, VLTs and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013. Allwyn has a 48.1% stake and significant board representation.

Investment summary

OPAP’s Q122 results showed a strong improvement from the prior year as it enjoyed a full period of (relatively) uninterrupted trading in its land-based locations, with a compensating moderation in the contribution from online revenue. The strong revenue recovery fed through to an improved EBITDA margin as management continues to control costs well on a relative basis as operations ramped up. Our forecasts are unchanged. The share price valuation and prospective dividend yield of 8.5% remain attractive versus quoted peers.

Y/E Dec	Revenue (€m)	EBITDA (€m)	PBT (€m)	EPS (fd) (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2020A	1129.8	263.9	132.0	31.83	43.0	20.7
2021A	1538.8	551.2	364.6	82.28	16.7	9.0
2022E	2170.9	721.7	553.8	119.36	11.5	7.2
2023E	2213.6	727.4	564.2	121.58	11.3	7.4

Industry outlook

The Hellenic Gaming Commission estimates the total Greek gaming market’s GGR amounted to €1.86bn in 2021, growth of c 15% in the year as it recovered from the severe drop of 27% in FY20 due to the initial COVID-19 outbreak and its effect on retail businesses. On an absolute basis, 2021’s GGR was equivalent to c 83% of the pre-COVID-19 level of €2.23bn.

Last updated on 01/07/2022