OPAP

ASE: OPAP

Market Cap€4,807m

Last Close €13.23

OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant and passives, VLTs and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013. Allwyn has a 49.8% stake and significant board representation.

Investment summary

OPAP’s strategy of greater product innovation, and the resilience of retail revenue despite increased pressures on consumer spending, drove solid revenue growth in Q322. Ongoing cost control led to an impressive improvement in profitability, enabling management to increase its FY22 EBITDA guidance back towards prior guidance from the start of the year (€720m). Despite the relatively strong share price performance in the last 12 months, the prospective FY23 P/E multiple of 10.9x is a 15% discount to its peers, and the dividend yield of 9.2% remains very attractive.

Y/E Dec	Revenue (€m)	EBITDA (€m)	PBT (€m)	EPS (fd) (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2020A	1129.8	263.9	132.0	31.83	41.6	20.0
2021A	1538.8	551.2	364.6	82.28	16.1	8.7
2022E	2030.9	716.1	560.9	119.59	11.1	7.2
2023E	2100.6	729.4	564.2	118.56	11.2	7.4

Industry outlook

The Hellenic Gaming Commission estimates the total Greek gaming market’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) amounted to €1.86bn in 2021, growth of c 15% in the year as it recovered from the severe drop of 27% in FY20 due to the initial COVID-19 outbreak and its effect on retail businesses. On an absolute basis, 2021’s GGR was equivalent to c 83% of the pre-COVID-19 level of €2.23bn.

Last updated on 30/11/2022