Shot of a completed lottery ticket

OPAP

ASE: OPAP

Market Cap€4,834m

Last Close €13.7

OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant and passives, VLTs and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013. Allwyn has a 48.1% stake and significant board representation.

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Investment summary

OPAP’s Q122 results showed a strong improvement from the prior year as it enjoyed a full period of (relatively) uninterrupted trading in its land-based locations, with a compensating moderation in the contribution from online revenue. The strong revenue recovery fed through to an improved EBITDA margin as management continues to control costs well on a relative basis as operations ramped up. Our forecasts are unchanged. The share price valuation and prospective dividend yield of 8.5% remain attractive versus quoted peers.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 1129.8 263.9 132.0 31.83 43.0 20.7
2021A 1538.8 551.2 364.6 82.28 16.7 9.0
2022E 2170.9 721.7 553.8 119.36 11.5 7.2
2023E 2213.6 727.4 564.2 121.58 11.3 7.4
Industry outlook

The Hellenic Gaming Commission estimates the total Greek gaming market’s GGR amounted to €1.86bn in 2021, growth of c 15% in the year as it recovered from the severe drop of 27% in FY20 due to the initial COVID-19 outbreak and its effect on retail businesses. On an absolute basis, 2021’s GGR was equivalent to c 83% of the pre-COVID-19 level of €2.23bn.

Last updated on 01/07/2022
Content on OPAP
OPAP – Strong retail recovery in Q122
Consumer | research Update | 8 June 2022
Shot of a completed lottery ticket
OPAP – Progressing the strategy
Consumer | research Outlook | 5 May 2022
Shot of a completed lottery ticket
OPAP – Sequential improvement in Q321
Consumer | research Update | 30 November 2021
Shot of a completed lottery ticket
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 195.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 22
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (4.6) 2.6 6.6
Relative* 6.6 13.4 17.5
52-week high/low €14.6/€11.1
*% relative to local index
Key management
Jan Karas CEO
Pavel Mucha CFO

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