4imprint Group (LSE: FOUR)

Last close As at 20/06/2024

GBP59.30

130.00 (2.24%)

Market capitalisation

GBP1,671m

4imprint is the leading direct marketer of promotional products in the United States, Canada, the UK and Ireland. In FY23, 98% of revenues were generated in the United States and Canada.

The US promotional products distribution market is highly fragmented and PPAI estimated its 2023 value at US$26.1bn, up 2.2% on the year, after a disappointing Q4. For Q124, the PPAI are indicating sales up 1.5%, but the other industry body, ASI, indicating a dip of 0.9%. Given US inflation for Q124 of 3.5%, this implies a further dip in volumes. Some questions remain about confidence in the US corporate sector but the utility of promotional products is high and sector prospects remain positive.

Latest Insights

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TMT | Update

4imprint Group — Solid start to the year

TMT | Update

4imprint Group — Continued market share gains

TMT | Update

4imprint Group — FY23 finishes strongly

TMT | Outlook

4imprint Group — Further progress in Q323

4imprint-Group_resized

Sector

TMT

Equity Analyst

Fiona Orford-Williams

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Milo Bussell

Analyst, Consumer and TMT

Key Management

  • David Seekings

    FD

  • Kevin Lyons-Tarr

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

125

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (5.3) (2.6) 18.4
Relative (2.9) (8.1) 9.5
52 week high/low 6540.0p/4255.0p

Financials

4imprint’s AGM trading update indicates a solid start to the year against a challenging market backdrop, with FY24 expectations (and therefore our forecasts) unchanged. Group revenue growth of 6% over the prior year for the four months to end April is clearly ahead of the North American market, where Q124 industry revenue indications range from broadly flat to a small decline, indicating that the group is continuing to build market share. 4imprint is the largest distributor in North America, yet still only has a market share of around 5%, giving it plenty of runway for growth. CFO David Seekings has announced his intention to retire before the end of 2025, giving ample time for a suitable succession to be arranged.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 1140.3 108.4 103.7 285.6 26.5 21.0
2023A 1326.5 142.6 140.7 377.9 20.0 12.8
2024E 1430.0 149.9 146.5 395.2 19.2 15.8
2025E 1500.0 157.0 153.8 408.7 18.5 13.1

Further insights

Thematics

thematic

TMT

MediaWatch – Glimpses of positivity

thematic

TMT

MediaWatch – Rinse and repeat

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