4imprint Group (LSE: FOUR)

Last close As at 23/02/2024

GBP55.30

40.00 (0.73%)

Market capitalisation

GBP1,547m

4imprint is the leading direct marketer of promotional products in the United States, Canada, the UK and Ireland. In FY22, 98% of revenues were generated in the United States and Canada.

The US promotional products distribution market is highly fragmented and PPAI estimated its 2023 value at over US$26bn, up 3.1% on the year. This is ahead of the World Bank’s estimate of US real GDP increase of 2.5%. However, US inflation in 2023 is estimated at 3.4%, implying that underlying volume growth is still likely limited. Some questions remain about confidence in the US corporate sector, but the utility of promotional products is high and sector prospects remain positive.

Latest Insights

View More

TMT | Update

4imprint Group — FY23 finishes strongly

TMT | Outlook

4imprint Group — Further progress in Q323

TMT | Update

4imprint Group — Record H123 customer demand

4imprint-Group_resized

Sector

TMT

Equity Analyst

Fiona Orford-Williams

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Milo Bussell

Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media

Key Management

  • David Seekings

    FD

  • Kevin Lyons-Tarr

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

105

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 6.6 26.35 24.49
Relative 4.14 22.57 28.27
52 week high/low 5690.0p/4200.0p

Financials

4imprint’s year-end trading update indicated that 2023 was a strong year for the group’s financial performance. Revenue of $1.33bn is in line with guidance reiterated in November of ‘slightly above $1.3bn’, but PBT is now guided at ‘not below $140m’, above our previous expectation of $131m. We attribute the stronger profitability to a combination of higher gross margin and marketing efficiency. Strong cash performance resulted in the year-end balance of $105m exceeding our prior $84m estimate. Our revised FY24 and provisional FY25 profit and cash estimates are pushed ahead on this higher base on a 10% operating margin. The shares continue to trade at a substantial discount to our DCF valuation.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 787.3 35.7 30.2 80.3 86.9 85.8
2022A 1140.3 108.4 103.7 285.0 24.5 19.4
2023E 1330.0 142.8 140.0 372.6 18.7 11.6
2024E 1430.0 151.6 146.5 394.4 17.7 14.8

Thematics

thematic

TMT

MediaWatch – Rinse and repeat

thematic

TMT

MediaWatch – Still waiting…

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