Agnico Eagle Mines — Record-breaking production

Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM)

Last close As at 24/02/2024

USD48.16

−0.60 (−1.23%)

Market capitalisation

USD23,914m

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Research: Metals & Mining

Agnico Eagle Mines — Record-breaking production

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) reported record quarterly gold production of 873koz in Q223 at a US$840/oz total cash cost and a US$1,150/oz all-in sustaining cost (AISC) that drove strong financial results of adjusted EPS of US$0.65/share and operating cash flow of US$1.46/share. Record-breaking production reflects 100% ownership for the full quarter of Canadian Malartic, which will add c 80–90koz in attributable production per quarter. Additionally, AEM recorded the safest half-year performance in its history. Guidance for FY23 has been reiterated at 3.24–3.44Moz at a cash cost of US$840–890/oz and AISC of US$1,140–1,190/oz. The quarterly dividend remains at US$0.40/share.

Tom Batho

Written by

Tom Batho

Analyst

mining02

Metals & Mining

Agnico Eagle Mines

Record-breaking production

Metals and mining

QuickView

4 August 2023

Price

US$48.18

Market cap

US$24.2bn

C$1.330/US$

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Share details

Code

AEM

Listings

TSX, NYSE

Shares in issue

494.1m

Business description

After completing a series of mergers and acquisitions in 2022 and 2023, Agnico Eagle Mines has become the world’s third-largest gold miner, operating 12 mines in Canada, Australia, Finland and Mexico. Its philosophy is to build a high-quality business that generates superior long-term returns and contributes to the communities in which it operates.

Bull

Low-risk mining jurisdictions in Canada (Nunavut and Abitibi), Australia, Finland and Mexico.

Management is focused on costs, returns and profits, rather than output growth.

Easing inflationary pressures.

Bear

Exposure to harsh Canadian Arctic climate.

AEM has no gold hedges; however, it does hedge portions of its Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, euro and diesel exposure.

US$1.7bn in net debt (but equates to just 7.8% leverage and 8.4% gearing)

Analysts

Tom Batho

+44 (0)20 3077 5734

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Agnico Eagle Mines is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) reported record quarterly gold production of 873koz in Q223 at a US$840/oz total cash cost and a US$1,150/oz all-in sustaining cost (AISC) that drove strong financial results of adjusted EPS of US$0.65/share and operating cash flow of US$1.46/share. Record-breaking production reflects 100% ownership for the full quarter of Canadian Malartic, which will add c 80–90koz in attributable production per quarter. Additionally, AEM recorded the safest half-year performance in its history. Guidance for FY23 has been reiterated at 3.24–3.44Moz at a cash cost of US$840–890/oz and AISC of US$1,140–1,190/oz. The quarterly dividend remains at US$0.40/share.

All positives at the Canadian Malartic Complex

A new internal study on Odyssey confirmed a 23% increase in mineral resources (53% now indicated cf 5%, previously), taking new forecasts to 9Moz for the mine life and an extension to 2042. Once fully transitioned to underground mining in 2029, the Canadian Malartic Complex is forecast to average 558koz Au pa over 13 years at a total cash cost of US$768/oz. Additionally, recent inflationary increases have been fully absorbed by the larger mineable resources, the current favourable gold price and the advanced construction process of the underground transition, contributing to an after-tax internal rate of return and net present value (at a 5% discount rate) of approximately 33% and US$2.46bn, respectively (cf 24% and US$1.60bn, previously). With an estimated excess mill capacity (40ktpd) at the Canadian Malartic Complex, starting in 2028, AEM is looking to expand mineral resource exploration, leveraging organic growth, notably at East Gouldie and Camflo. Following a strong company-wide exploration program throughout H123, the budget has increased by US$32m, totalling ~US$300m. Finally, at Detour Lake, the mill is on track to increase throughput to 28Mtpa by 2025 following continued optimisation, with the potential to exceed this in the future.

Valuation: Dividend yield remains at a premium

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(US$m)

PBT
(US$m)

EPS
(US$)

DPS
(US$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

3,824

943

2.30

1.45

21.0

3.0

12/22

5,741

1,428

1.86

1.60

25.9

3.3

12/23e

6,557

2,728

2.12

1.60

22.7

3.3

12/24e

6,703

1,534

2.21

1.60

21.8

3.3

Source: Company data, Refinitiv. Note: EPS and historical PBT are normalised.

AEM continues to command a premium rating relative to the sector, consistent with both its size and the low-risk jurisdictions in which it operates. Guidance is for production to increase from 3.24–3.44Moz in FY23 to 3.4–3.6Moz in FY25 and consensus earnings estimates remain mostly constant since our last note in May. However, a notable uptick in FY23e reported PBT is apparent as the market could be factoring in the revaluation gain following the close of the Yamana transaction in Q123. Otherwise, consensus forecasts for the remainder of the year and FY24 appear to be consistent with AEM’s historical performance and the current gold price. Nevertheless, AEM’s yield remains at a notable premium to its peers.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Agnico Eagle Mines and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Agnico Eagle Mines. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Agnico Eagle Mines and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Agnico Eagle Mines. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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