Last close As at 06/08/2026
GBP2.62
▲ 3.60 (1.39%)
Market capitalisation
GBP662m
Research: Industrials
Approaching the year end, slower trading in certain sub-sectors causes us to trim our FY19 earnings estimates by 5% (with more modest adjustments thereafter). This does not change our view that the company is well placed by sector to benefit from some long-term structural drivers in the building materials space.
Written by
Polypipe |
Well-placed but revenue progress moderates |
Trading update |
Building & construction |
20 November 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Polypipe is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Approaching the year end, slower trading in certain sub-sectors causes us to trim our FY19 earnings estimates by 5% (with more modest adjustments thereafter). This does not change our view that the company is well placed by sector to benefit from some long-term structural drivers in the building materials space.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17** |
411.7 |
65.7 |
26.9 |
11.1 |
17.3 |
2.4 |
12/18** |
433.2 |
67.1 |
28.1 |
11.6 |
16.6 |
2.5 |
12/19e |
447.5 |
69.8 |
28.4 |
12.5 |
16.4 |
2.7 |
12/20e |
478.4 |
74.8 |
30.3 |
13.3 |
15.4 |
2.8 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Continuing operations only.
Some slowing in H2 year-on-year progress
A 10-month trading update indicated a comparable rate of year-on-year revenue progress in Residential compared to the interim stage (+8.2% versus +8.4%, respectively, +7.9% in H2 to date), but a slowing in Commercial & Infrastructure (C&I; -0.6% and +3.4%, with H2 to date -5.8%). We believe the latter effect is chiefly due to variable and ultimately softer UK project trends (there is some acquisition benefit in both divisions – Manthorpe in Residential the main one – and integration is said to be proceeding well in each case). More recently, both divisions have seen site activity affected to some extent by heavy rainfall in parts of the UK.
In context, Polypipe’s equivalent update a year ago pointed to strengthening trading momentum in H218, so the comparator is getting progressively tougher anyway. Additionally, year-on-year progress from 2018 acquisitions is annualising out now (although obviously not for Alderburgh, acquired at the beginning of October). Nevertheless, taking the latest trading news into account, we have trimmed our FY19 earnings expectations by 5%, primarily through the C&I contribution. We have also taken the opportunity to nudge down subsequent years (FY20 -4%, FY21 -1%) with Brexit-related economic uncertainty ongoing and have amended our DPS projections, retaining 2.3x earnings cover. The current UK pre-election phase sees most of the leading parties using infrastructure and the environment as policy cornerstones with rising funding flagged. This is unlikely to have any near-term impact in our view but does endorse the company’s own stated structural drivers based on current economic fundamentals.
Valuation: Share price well ahead year to date
After a good run (+c 44% ytd, including a strong uplift in the last six weeks), Polypipe’s share price is probably due for a pause. The trading update allows us to take stock and the current year rating is now 16.4x on a P/E basis with an 11.5x EV/EBITDA multiple. Greater post-election economic clarity would benefit sentiment across the building materials sector generally and, for the policy reasons mentioned above, we would expect Polypipe to benefit in such a scenario.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2016* |
2017* |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
327.0 |
352.9 |
436.9 |
387.2 |
411.7 |
433.2 |
447.5 |
478.4 |
493.9 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(202.4) |
(210.0) |
(256.8) |
(219.1) |
(236.0) |
(251.9) |
(259.0) |
(276.9) |
(285.9) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
124.6 |
142.9 |
180.1 |
168.1 |
175.7 |
181.4 |
188.4 |
201.5 |
208.0 |
EBITDA |
|
|
60.8 |
69.3 |
86.4 |
84.5 |
88.3 |
90.6 |
98.8 |
104.6 |
110.2 |
Operating Profit (underlying) |
|
46.3 |
54.2 |
70.4 |
69.5 |
73.4 |
75.0 |
78.7 |
83.6 |
89.0 |
|
SBP |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(0.8) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
Operating Profit (reported) |
|
|
46.3 |
54.2 |
69.4 |
68.5 |
72.6 |
74.0 |
77.7 |
82.6 |
88.0 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(7.7) |
(5.3) |
(6.6) |
(6.6) |
(5.8) |
(5.8) |
(7.2) |
(7.3) |
(6.8) |
Other finance |
|
|
(1.0) |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.1) |
(1.1) |
(0.8) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
0.0 |
(3.0) |
(6.8) |
(6.8) |
(5.5) |
(5.9) |
(7.5) |
(7.5) |
(7.5) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(20.7) |
(3.5) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
(4.6) |
(2.7) |
(0.8) |
(2.8) |
0.0 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
37.6 |
48.0 |
61.8 |
60.9 |
65.7 |
67.1 |
69.8 |
74.8 |
80.7 |
Profit Before Tax (statutory) |
|
|
16.9 |
41.5 |
54.4 |
53.5 |
55.6 |
58.5 |
61.5 |
64.5 |
73.2 |
Tax |
|
|
(5.4) |
(9.2) |
(11.8) |
(10.1) |
(11.8) |
(10.5) |
(12.6) |
(13.5) |
(14.5) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
32.2 |
38.8 |
50.0 |
49.2 |
53.9 |
56.5 |
57.2 |
61.3 |
66.1 |
Profit After Tax (statutory) |
|
|
11.5 |
32.3 |
42.6 |
43.4 |
43.8 |
49.1 |
50.3 |
52.4 |
60.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
199.9 |
199.3 |
198.9 |
198.9 |
198.4 |
199.0 |
199.6 |
200.0 |
200.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
16.1 |
19.4 |
25.0 |
24.6 |
26.9 |
28.1 |
28.4 |
30.3 |
32.7 |
EPS - statutory (p) |
|
|
5.8 |
16.2 |
21.4 |
22.2 |
22.1 |
24.7 |
25.2 |
26.2 |
30.0 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
4.5 |
7.8 |
10.1 |
10.1 |
11.1 |
11.6 |
12.5 |
13.3 |
14.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
38.1 |
40.5 |
41.2 |
43.4 |
42.7 |
41.9 |
42.1 |
42.1 |
42.1 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
18.6 |
19.6 |
19.8 |
21.8 |
21.4 |
20.9 |
22.1 |
21.9 |
22.3 |
Operating Margin (underlying) (%) |
|
14.2 |
15.4 |
16.1 |
17.9 |
17.8 |
17.3 |
17.6 |
17.5 |
18.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
324.2 |
476.5 |
472.6 |
|
455.1 |
520.3 |
548.2 |
548.7 |
546.1 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
235.0 |
378.4 |
371.6 |
|
356.5 |
401.9 |
404.4 |
399.7 |
392.2 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
89.2 |
98.1 |
101.0 |
|
98.6 |
118.4 |
143.8 |
149.0 |
153.9 |
Investments |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Current Assets |
|
|
103.9 |
99.6 |
119.5 |
|
147.7 |
141.7 |
161.0 |
190.7 |
224.3 |
Stocks |
|
|
39.9 |
47.5 |
52.2 |
|
53.5 |
58.1 |
62.8 |
67.1 |
69.3 |
Debtors |
|
|
20.2 |
29.3 |
38.9 |
|
32.6 |
37.2 |
41.4 |
43.9 |
45.1 |
Cash |
|
|
43.1 |
21.6 |
26.5 |
|
35.7 |
46.2 |
56.1 |
77.4 |
106.0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(69.8) |
(87.2) |
(104.5) |
|
(108.8) |
(108.7) |
(108.8) |
(115.8) |
(117.6) |
Creditors |
|
|
(69.8) |
(87.2) |
(104.5) |
|
(108.8) |
(108.7) |
(108.8) |
(115.8) |
(117.6) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(120.6) |
(227.9) |
(200.2) |
|
(192.0) |
(222.1) |
(241.2) |
(238.9) |
(236.7) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(118.0) |
(215.9) |
(190.8) |
|
(184.1) |
(210.4) |
(221.5) |
(221.5) |
(221.5) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(2.6) |
(12.0) |
(9.4) |
|
(7.9) |
(11.7) |
(19.7) |
(17.4) |
(15.2) |
Net Assets |
|
|
237.7 |
261.0 |
287.4 |
|
302.0 |
331.2 |
359.2 |
384.6 |
416.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
50.6 |
72.6 |
86.5 |
|
79.2 |
90.0 |
87.7 |
100.8 |
107.3 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(10.4) |
(5.7) |
(7.3) |
|
(6.6) |
(6.1) |
(7.4) |
(7.5) |
(7.0) |
Tax |
|
|
(3.7) |
(5.2) |
(10.1) |
|
(12.6) |
(11.2) |
(11.2) |
(12.6) |
(13.5) |
Capex |
|
|
(14.9) |
(18.9) |
(18.7) |
|
(22.0) |
(23.2) |
(24.8) |
(26.1) |
(26.1) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(0.3) |
(149.5) |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
(42.5) |
(14.5) |
(2.8) |
0.0 |
Financing |
|
|
(1.7) |
0.0 |
(2.9) |
|
(0.7) |
0.3 |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
Dividends |
|
|
(3.0) |
(10.6) |
(17.1) |
|
(21.0) |
(22.3) |
(23.7) |
(25.5) |
(27.0) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
16.6 |
(117.3) |
30.5 |
|
16.3 |
(15.1) |
4.6 |
24.9 |
32.2 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
84.7 |
74.9 |
194.3 |
|
164.3 |
148.4 |
164.2 |
165.4 |
144.1 |
Finance leases initiated |
|
|
(9.6) |
(1.7) |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
(1.6) |
(0.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
2.8 |
(0.4) |
(0.5) |
|
(0.4) |
0.8 |
(5.7) |
(3.6) |
(3.6) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
74.9 |
194.3 |
164.3 |
|
148.4 |
164.2 |
165.4 |
144.1 |
115.5 |
Lease finance (under IFRS 16) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.9 |
7.3 |
3.7 |
||
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Continuing operations only.
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