The benefits of balanced market exposure came through in FY17 with an excellent Residential performance more than offsetting less settled conditions in Commercial and Infrastructure. An exit from non-core French operations and Middle East manufacturing simplifies the group structure and the former move enhances what is already a positive cashflow outlook.
Exhibit 1: Polypipe divisional splits
Dec y/e £m |
2016 |
2016 |
H1* |
H2* |
2017 |
|
% ch yoy |
% ch yoy |
|
Original |
Restated |
|
|
|
|
H117* |
FY17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Group revenue |
436.9 |
387.2 |
207.1 |
204.6 |
411.7 |
|
23% |
6.3% |
Residential |
207.6 |
207.6 |
115.0 |
113.8 |
228.8 |
|
9% |
10.2% |
Commercial and Infrastructure |
242.1 |
190.6 |
101.2 |
94.8 |
196.0 |
|
6% |
2.8% |
Inter company |
-12.8 |
-11.0 |
-9.1 |
-4.0 |
-13.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Group op. profit company underlying |
69.4 |
68.5 |
38.0 |
34.6 |
72.6 |
|
3% |
6.0% |
Residential |
39.0 |
39.1 |
22.9 |
21.4 |
44.3 |
|
7% |
13.3% |
Commercial & Infrastructure |
30.4 |
29.4 |
15.1 |
13.2 |
28.3 |
|
-3% |
-3.7% |
Source: Company, *Edison Investment Research estimates. Note: French operations excluded from all columns save for the originally reported FY16 numbers, which are included for comparative purposes.
Residential
Manufacturer of plastic pipe systems, fittings and ancillary items (connectors, couplings, inspection chambers) and ventilation products (mechanical extraction, ducting) for residential housing.
Revenue growth exceeded 10% in FY17, over half of this was attributable to volume (+6.6% y-o-y). Just over half of revenues are generated from the newbuild segment and, given that the secondary repair, maintain, improve (RMI) market was flat at best, the underlying momentum in newbuild was clearly very strong. While London demand was ‘less busy’ than the prior year, other south-east and regional markets were more buoyant. Selling price increases in February also contributed to top-line progress, although we believe that there was a relatively small under recovery of input price rises over the year as a whole. Nevertheless, on a net revenue basis (ie excluding inter divisional transfers), this division achieved a 19.8% EBIT margin, up 60bp versus FY16, which we attribute to good operating cost control.
Commercial and Infrastructure
Design and manufacture of internal and external thermoplastic drainage and water management systems, internal pressurised systems and ventilation solutions. Civil/infrastructure focuses on drainage and water management (especially roads/highways).
Net revenue growth for the ongoing operations was 2.0% in the year; we suspect that divisional volume was lower y-o-y and, as above, higher selling prices contributed to overall growth. Regionally, UK revenue rose by 4.1% although we believe the rate of growth slowed as the year progressed with delays in road programmes and a slow down in commercial project awards both cited as reasons for this. Around 20% of divisional revenue by destination was generated outside the UK (with c £19m in Europe and c £27m elsewhere). European revenue rose by c 10% with improving demand possibly reflecting benefits from sustained sterling weakness relative to the euro. RoW revenue declined by c 15% against healthy prior year comparators in the Middle East, where order intake has reduced. Along with the political marginalisation of Qatar, this has understandably caused Polypipe to exit from direct manufacturing in the region; exceptional costs were taken in FY17 and equipment is to be relocated to the UK. (French operations have been treated as discontinued – and excluded from the above figures – ahead of an expected disposal during FY18.) At the EBIT level, this division recorded a 15.0% net margin, down 90bp y-o-y with mixed market conditions and some higher input price recovery lag contributing to this outcome.
Positive cashflow performance, net debt trending down
Polypipe ended FY17 with £148m net debt, a £16m y-o-y reduction and equivalent to 1.7x total EBITDA. For continuing operations, FY17 EBITDA rose in line with the EBIT increase shown in Exhibit 1 to £88.3m (versus £84.5m in the prior year). There was also a marked increase in working capital investment of c £10m in contrast to modestly positive cash flow contributions at previous year ends. Partly reflecting rising input costs and also ahead of announced price increases, c £9m of inventory build occurred in the year in the expectation that there would be a substantial unwind of the finished goods component early in the new financial year. (A similar and slightly earlier pattern was also visible at the end of FY16, where the inventory build was lower but trade receivables expanded as the demand pull-forward began before the year end.) This action allows Polypipe to maintain service levels during the busy ramp-up of site activity at the beginning of the year. Of the other cash flow items, we note that net interest was on a downward trend (partly following absolute debt levels but also ratcheted down interest costs) and capex ran at 1.5x ongoing depreciation (including investment in new larger diameter pipes for Civils at Horncastle). Note that discontinued operations contributed £1.3m net to group cash flow.
Cash flow outlook: our updated estimates include free cash flow (FCF) at or above £50m in each of our forecast years after modest working capital absorption to facilitate growth and capex of at least 1.2x depreciation. Rising dividend cash payments absorb around half of the FCF generated; there is no defined benefit pension scheme requiring cash contributions, although significant planned or actual M&A activity could influence the rate of near-term dividend growth in our view. Our model includes the receipt of £14.5m (€16.5m) from the French business disposal factored into FY18, contributing to a £110m expected end 2018 net debt. This represents 1.2x continuing EBITDA and with P&L bank interest cover of c 13x (16x on a cash basis) we believe Polypipe remains conservatively financed. In the context of a £290m RCF (reducing to £270m at the end of its term in August 2020), Polypipe has plenty of headroom for bolt-on acquisitions in our view. M&A appears to be under active consideration, though we do not assume such activity in our estimates.
Estimate changes: Mixed market conditions predicted
For market context, projections by the Construction Projects Association include continuing growth in residential newbuild activity and healthy (and accelerating) infrastructure spending. Polypipe’s primary exposure in the latter subsector is in highways and stormwater management. Less favourably, RMI spending is expected to remain very subdued across both public and private sectors and commercial newbuild activity is predicted by the CPA to be significantly lower in the next couple of years.
The primary change to our headline profit estimates in Exhibit 2 is the adjustment for the expected French business disposal. This equates to a £1.5m EBIT reduction in both FY18 and FY19, slightly softened at the PBT level by the interest impact of disposal proceeds (assumed to be received mid 2018). For ongoing operations, the EBIT mix is now more in favour of Residential, having lowered underlying group EBIT estimates slightly due to lower Commercial & Infrastructure expectations. Lastly, based on the FY17 outturn, we now assume a flat 18% effective tax rate in all years, which is a 100bp reduction to our previous FY18 estimate. We introduce FY20 estimates for the first time.
Exhibit 2: Polypipe revised estimates
|
EPS, fully diluted, normalised (p) |
PBT, normalised (£m) |
EBITDA (£m) |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
2017 |
26.4 |
26.9 |
+1.9 |
66.2 |
65.7 |
-0.8 |
90.8 |
88.3 |
-2.8 |
2018e |
29.0 |
29.0 |
--- |
71.6 |
70.1 |
-2.1 |
96.6 |
92.9 |
-3.8 |
2019e |
30.9 |
30.2 |
-2.3 |
75.5 |
73.6 |
-2.5 |
100.8 |
96.4 |
-4.4 |
2020e |
N/A |
31.1 |
N/A |
N/A |
75.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
98.7 |
N/A |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: 2017 Old = estimate (including French operations), New = actual (excluding French operations)
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
|
|
£'ms |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2016* |
2017* |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
December |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
327.0 |
352.9 |
436.9 |
387.2 |
411.7 |
433.0 |
443.5 |
453.5 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(202.4) |
(210.0) |
(256.8) |
(219.1) |
(236.0) |
(251.1) |
(256.1) |
(261.9) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
124.6 |
142.9 |
180.1 |
168.1 |
175.7 |
181.8 |
187.4 |
191.6 |
EBITDA |
|
|
60.8 |
69.3 |
86.4 |
84.5 |
88.3 |
92.9 |
96.4 |
98.7 |
Operating Profit (underlying) |
|
|
46.3 |
54.2 |
70.4 |
69.5 |
73.4 |
77.7 |
81.0 |
83.1 |
SBP |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
Operating Profit (reported) |
|
|
46.3 |
54.2 |
69.4 |
68.5 |
72.6 |
76.9 |
80.2 |
82.3 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(7.7) |
(5.3) |
(6.6) |
(6.6) |
(5.8) |
(5.8) |
(5.5) |
(5.3) |
Other finance |
|
|
(1.0) |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.1) |
(1.1) |
(1.1) |
(1.1) |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
0.0 |
(3.0) |
(6.8) |
(6.8) |
(5.5) |
(5.5) |
(5.5) |
(5.5) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(20.7) |
(3.5) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
(4.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
37.6 |
48.0 |
61.8 |
60.9 |
65.7 |
70.1 |
73.6 |
75.9 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
16.9 |
41.5 |
54.4 |
53.5 |
55.6 |
64.6 |
68.1 |
70.4 |
Tax |
|
|
(5.4) |
(9.2) |
(11.8) |
(10.1) |
(11.8) |
(12.6) |
(13.2) |
(13.7) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
32.2 |
38.8 |
50.0 |
49.2 |
53.9 |
57.4 |
60.4 |
62.2 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
11.5 |
32.3 |
42.6 |
43.4 |
43.8 |
51.9 |
54.9 |
56.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
199.9 |
199.3 |
198.9 |
198.9 |
198.4 |
198.4 |
198.4 |
198.4 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
16.1 |
19.4 |
25.0 |
24.6 |
26.9 |
28.7 |
30.1 |
31.1 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
5.8 |
16.2 |
21.4 |
22.2 |
22.1 |
26.2 |
27.6 |
28.6 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
4.5 |
7.8 |
10.1 |
10.1 |
11.1 |
12.9 |
13.3 |
13.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
38.1 |
40.5 |
41.2 |
43.4 |
42.7 |
42.0 |
42.3 |
42.3 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
18.6 |
19.6 |
19.8 |
21.8 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.7 |
21.8 |
Operating Margin (underlying) (%) |
|
|
14.2 |
15.4 |
16.1 |
17.9 |
17.8 |
17.9 |
18.3 |
18.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
324.2 |
476.5 |
472.6 |
|
455.1 |
454.5 |
453.6 |
452.4 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
235.0 |
378.4 |
371.6 |
|
356.5 |
351.0 |
345.5 |
340.0 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
89.2 |
98.1 |
101.0 |
|
98.6 |
103.5 |
108.1 |
112.4 |
Investments |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Current Assets |
|
|
103.9 |
99.6 |
119.5 |
|
147.7 |
167.6 |
198.1 |
229.8 |
Stocks |
|
|
39.9 |
47.5 |
52.2 |
|
53.5 |
56.9 |
58.1 |
59.4 |
Debtors |
|
|
20.2 |
29.3 |
38.9 |
|
32.6 |
33.6 |
34.5 |
35.2 |
Cash |
|
|
43.1 |
21.6 |
26.5 |
|
35.7 |
74.0 |
102.0 |
131.2 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(69.8) |
(87.2) |
(104.5) |
|
(108.8) |
(99.2) |
(99.4) |
(99.6) |
Creditors |
|
|
(69.8) |
(87.2) |
(104.5) |
|
(108.8) |
(99.2) |
(99.4) |
(99.6) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(120.6) |
(227.9) |
(200.2) |
|
(192.0) |
(193.0) |
(194.0) |
(195.0) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(118.0) |
(215.9) |
(190.8) |
|
(184.1) |
(184.1) |
(184.1) |
(184.1) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(2.6) |
(12.0) |
(9.4) |
|
(7.9) |
(8.9) |
(9.9) |
(10.9) |
Net Assets |
|
|
237.7 |
261.0 |
287.4 |
|
302.0 |
329.9 |
358.3 |
387.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
50.6 |
72.6 |
86.5 |
|
79.2 |
87.9 |
93.6 |
96.1 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(10.4) |
(5.7) |
(7.3) |
|
(6.6) |
(5.8) |
(5.5) |
(5.3) |
Tax |
|
|
(3.7) |
(5.2) |
(10.1) |
|
(12.6) |
(12.6) |
(12.6) |
(13.2) |
Capex |
|
|
(14.9) |
(18.9) |
(18.7) |
|
(22.0) |
(20.0) |
(20.0) |
(20.0) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(0.3) |
(149.5) |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
14.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Financing |
|
|
(1.7) |
0.0 |
(2.9) |
|
(0.7) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
Dividends |
|
|
(3.0) |
(10.6) |
(17.1) |
|
(21.0) |
(24.2) |
(26.0) |
(26.9) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
16.6 |
(117.3) |
30.5 |
|
16.3 |
38.3 |
28.0 |
29.2 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
84.7 |
74.9 |
194.3 |
|
164.3 |
148.4 |
110.1 |
82.1 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
(9.6) |
(1.7) |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
2.8 |
(0.4) |
(0.5) |
|
(0.4) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
74.9 |
194.3 |
164.3 |
|
148.4 |
110.1 |
82.1 |
52.9 |
Source: Company, Edison Investment Research. *NB continuing operations only
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Polypipe Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. 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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
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