Metro Bank — Upgrading guidance for FY25 and FY26

Metro Bank (LSE: MTRO)

Last close As at 01/11/2024

GBP0.77

−0.80 (−1.03%)

Market capitalisation

GBP521m

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Research: Financials

Metro Bank — Upgrading guidance for FY25 and FY26

Metro Bank (Metro) reported a loss before tax of £26.8m in H124 mainly due to a weaker net interest margin (NIM), partly offset by lower impairments. The significant repositioning of the business model towards higher-return commercial and specialist mortgage lending is well under way, however. The £80m cost reduction plan is on track and the recently announced sale of £2.5bn of mortgages to NatWest Group accelerates the lending mix shift. Management expects profitability during Q424 and has upgraded its guidance for FY25 to a ‘mid-to-upper single digit’ return on tangible equity (RoTE) from a ‘low- to mid-single digit’ RoTE. Double-digit returns are projected in FY26 and mid-to-upper teens thereafter. The shares trade at 0.38x tangible book value per share (TBVPS) of 137p at the end of June 2024.

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Financials

Metro Bank

Upgrading guidance for FY25 and FY26

H124 results

Financials

1 August 2024

Price

52p

Market cap

£352m

Net cash/debt at date

N/A

Shares in issue

672.7m

Free float

45%

Code

MTRO

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Metro Bank is a community bank that serves both retail and commercial customers in major cities in the UK. The company operates a network of more than 70 ‘stores’ in prime locations, a key source of new lending and low-cost deposits. Metro is in the process of a strategic repositioning towards a mid-to-upper-teens return business model focussed on commercial and specialist mortgage lending.

Analysts

Rob Murphy

+44 7900 484805

Martyn King

+44 20 3077 5700

Metro Bank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Metro Bank (Metro) reported a loss before tax of £26.8m in H124 mainly due to a weaker net interest margin (NIM), partly offset by lower impairments. The significant repositioning of the business model towards higher-return commercial and specialist mortgage lending is well under way, however. The £80m cost reduction plan is on track and the recently announced sale of £2.5bn of mortgages to NatWest Group accelerates the lending mix shift. Management expects profitability during Q424 and has upgraded its guidance for FY25 to a ‘mid-to-upper single digit’ return on tangible equity (RoTE) from a ‘low- to mid-single digit’ RoTE. Double-digit returns are projected in FY26 and mid-to-upper teens thereafter. The shares trade at 0.38x tangible book value per share (TBVPS) of 137p at the end of June 2024.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

524

(70.7)

(42.2)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23

649

30.5

13.4

0.0

3.9

N/A

12/24e

536

(14.6)

(7.9)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/25e

625

67.6

6.0

0.0

8.7

N/A

Source: LSEG Data and Analytics. Note: FY24e and FY25e are consensus estimates as of 31 July 2024.

H124 revenues of £234m were below consensus of £258m as the NIM compressed to 1.64% from 1.85% in H223. The biggest impact came from a rise in funding costs due to deposit rate pressure.

The cost reduction plan is on target to deliver £80m run rate savings by end FY24 and a run rate of £50m has already been achieved as over 22% of full-time equivalents have left the bank.

Management expects the NIM to expand very substantially over time, reaching around 2.5% towards the end of FY24, 3.25% by end-FY25 and 4% in FY26. The NIM expansion is driven by three factors: the maturity of the low yielding securities portfolio, a repricing of the deposit book and a shift in lending mix towards higher-return commercial and specialist mortgage loans. Metro management disclosed that in Q224 the NIM had expanded to 1.74% from 1.54% in Q1.

Commercial lending offers spreads currently around 350bp over base rate and specialist mortgages around 200bp above relevant swap rates. By 2029 it is envisaged that commercial lending will represent around 70% of total loans, and specialist mortgages the remaining 30%.

The combination of the rising NIM and cost management is to drive earnings higher without dramatically growing the asset base, thus boosting returns on regulatory capital.

The shares have moved up sharply on the announcement but still trade at only 0.38x TBVPS of 137p at end June 2024.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Metro Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Metro Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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United Kingdom

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

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United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Metro Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Metro Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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