SymBio Pharmaceuticals — Treakisym RTD approved

SymBio Pharmaceuticals (TYO: 4582)

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Research: Healthcare

SymBio Pharmaceuticals — Treakisym RTD approved

SymBio announced on 23 September 2020 that it has received approval from the PMDA for the ready-to-dilute (RTD) formulation of Treakisym (bendamustine) in Japan. This formulation, licensed from Eagle Pharmaceuticals, is part of SymBio’s pipeline management strategy and the company has exclusivity on the formulation until 2031. The company intends to begin marketing the product in January 2021.

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Written by

Healthcare

SymBio Pharmaceuticals

Treakisym RTD approved

Regulatory update

Pharma & biotech

30 September 2020

Price

¥420

Market cap

¥14,784m

¥110/US$

Net cash (¥m) at 30 June 2020

5,410

Shares in issue

35.2m

Free float

94%

Code

4582

Primary exchange

TYO

Secondary exchange

OTC US

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

5.0

(18.0)

(35.9)

Rel (local)

1.6

(23.4)

(38.0)

52-week high/low

¥791

¥264

Business description

SymBio Pharmaceuticals is a Japanese specialty pharma company with a focus on oncology and hematology. The Treakisym powder formulation was in-licensed from Astellas in 2005; liquid Treakisym was in-licensed from Eagle Pharmaceuticals in 2017; and brincidofovir was licensed from Chimerix in 2019.

Next events

Treakisym RTD launch

January 2021

Treakisym DLBCL approval decision

H121

Analyst

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

SymBio Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

SymBio announced on 23 September 2020 that it has received approval from the PMDA for the ready-to-dilute (RTD) formulation of Treakisym (bendamustine) in Japan. This formulation, licensed from Eagle Pharmaceuticals, is part of SymBio’s pipeline management strategy and the company has exclusivity on the formulation until 2031. The company intends to begin marketing the product in January 2021.

Year end

Revenue (¥m)

PBT*
(
¥m)

EPS*
(
¥)

DPS
(
¥)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

3,836

(2,626)

(158)

0

N/A

N/A

12/19

2,838

(4,250)

(184)

0

N/A

N/A

12/20e

2,608

(4,729)

(145)

0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

9,228

1,531

30

0

14

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortization of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Part of the strategy to extend the product lifecycle

The RTD formulation is one of two formulations of bendamustine licensed by SymBio from Eagle. This and the rapid infusion (RI) formulation are both intended to simplify the preparation and administration of the drug, which is highly insoluble in its native form. In the US, the RTD and RI formulations (marketed by Eagle and Teva respectively) have substantially replaced the market for the powdered formulation.

RI formulation on deck

SymBio also reported in September 2020 that the last patient has had his or her last evaluation for the company’s ongoing pivotal clinical study of the RI formulation of Treakisym. The study is of a Phase I/II design intended to demonstrate the safety of the formulation and of the 10-minute infusion protocol. The company is targeting a submission of a marketing application for the product in H222, for launch in 2023.

New guidance

The company issued new guidance for 2020, which includes downward revisions in revenue (¥3.04bn from ¥3.40bn), but also lower operating losses (¥4.59bn from ¥5.09bn). Additionally, the company has added the $4.95m arbitration award it is receiving from The Medicines Company in its estimates, which further improves the firm’s expected net loss (¥3.80bn from ¥4.80bn). We remain more conservative in our estimates with ¥2.61bn in revenue on account of ongoing supply issues.

Valuation: Increased to ¥37.8bn or ¥1,074 per share

We have increased our valuation to ¥37.8bn or ¥1,074 per share from ¥37.6bn or ¥1,068 per share. Otherwise our valuation models remain unchanged. We forecast company profitability in 2021 with the relaunch of Treakisym with SymBio’s internal salesforce and the associated improved margins.

Treakisym formulations and pipeline management

SymBio licensed the rights to both the RTD and RI formulations of bendamustine from Eagle Pharmaceuticals in September 2017. The two products were developed by Eagle as an improvement over freeze-dried bendamustine powder, which requires both a tedious solubilization and an extended infusion period. These products have substantially replaced the freeze-dried product on the US market. The RTD and RI formulations of bendamustine are marketed as Belrapzo and Bendeka respectively in the US. Belrapzo is marketed by directly by Eagle, which reported sales of $29.7m for the product in 2019. The more popular product is the RI formulation Bendeka, which is licensed to Teva Pharmaceuticals. Teva reported 2019 sales of its bendamustine products (which includes Bendeka and freeze-dried generics, but Teva notes that Bendeka is dominant) of $496m, down from $642m in 2018.

Exhibit 1: Treakisym formulations

Source: SymBio

SymBio licensed these products as part of a strategy to extend its period of exclusivity. Its exclusivity over the freeze-dried product expires in 2020, but the liquid formulations would extend this to 2031. The goal is to transition patients and providers over to the new formulations before new freeze-dried generics enter the market. Given the success of these products in the US, we believe that the increased convenience for healthcare providers supports such a strategy. The company guided that it expects to launch the RTD formulation in January 2021. The company reported earlier in September 2020 that the last patient had completed his or her last evaluation in the ongoing pivotal safety study for the RI formulation. The company has guided that approval is planned for H222 (which assumes a marketing application submission in H221).

New guidance

The company published a revision to its midrange plan in September 2020, which included updated guidance for the 2020 fiscal year (ending in December 2020). The company revised its sales outlook downward to ¥3.04bn from ¥3.40bn. The company cited COVID-19 and other factors as potential uncertainties in the projected sales. We remain more conservative and project H220 sales in the same range as H120 (¥1.36bn) and ¥2.61bn for 2020 as a whole. We are more conservative because we are accounting for continued disruption in the supply of the product, which has routinely seen supply issues that have affected the ability of the company to deliver product over the past year, although we hope this issue is resolved. This is the major difference between the company’s projections and our own. The supply issue is due to repeated delivery of batches from the company’s supplier Astellas that have not met quality control standards and delays in the replacement of these batches. The company will be transitioning out of its supply agreements at the end of 2020, so we expect this effect to be limited to this year.

Despite lower revenue than its prior forecast, the company is now guiding to lower operating losses, ¥4.59bn from ¥5.09bn, due to cost-cutting measures put in place in anticipation of the impact of COVID-19. This brings the company’s implied estimates for operational costs (¥7.64bn) more in line with ours (¥7.48bn). Finally, the company has added the value of the arbitration settlement it received against the Medicines Company in early September 2020 into its revised estimates for net loss (¥3.80bn from ¥4.80bn, previously). With the settlement included in our forecasts, we project a reported net loss of ¥4.34bn for 2020.

Valuation

We have increased our valuation to ¥37.8bn or ¥1,074 per share, from ¥37.6bn or ¥1,068 per share. This increase is solely due to the removal of our risk adjustment (95% probability of success previously) for the RTD formulation, which has increased the value of Treakisym for its approved indications to ¥19.15bn from ¥18.97bn. Otherwise, our models and sales forecasts remain unchanged.

Exhibit 2: Valuation of SymBio

Program

Indication

Probability of success

Launch year

Peak revenue (¥m)

Valuation (¥m)

Treakisym

Low grade NHL/MCL (r/r and 1st line); CLL

100–95%

2010

8,600

19,149.54

Treakisym (DLCBL)

r/r DLBCL

90%

2021

9,600

12,166.04

Brincidofovir

AdV following HSCT

20%

2025

9,100

1,062.05

Total

32,377.63

Net cash and equivalents (June 2020)

5,409.70

Total firm value (¥m)

37,787.33

Total basic shares (m)

35.18

Value per basic share (¥)

1,074.07

Source: SymBio reports, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

¥m

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

2022e

JPN GAAP, year-end 31 December

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

3,835.5

2,837.8

2,608.1

9,227.8

11,483.8

Cost of Sales

(2,662.7)

(1,973.0)

(1,956.0)

(1,618.7)

(2,261.2)

Gross Profit

1,172.9

864.8

652.0

7,609.1

9,222.6

R&D

(1,832.7)

(2,441.6)

(2,203.0)

(465.0)

(820.0)

SG&A

(1,996.2)

(2,724.8)

(3,324.8)

(5,772.5)

(6,396.9)

EBITDA

(2,621.4)

(4,263.5)

(4,754.8)

1,465.0

2,103.4

Depreciation & amortization

(34.7)

(38.1)

(121.0)

(93.4)

(97.7)

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(2,533.1)

(4,174.5)

(4,748.7)

1,498.7

2,132.9

Reported operating profit

 

 

(2,656.1)

(4,301.6)

(4,875.8)

1,371.6

2,005.7

Net interest

(92.7)

(75.0)

19.6

32.5

54.8

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(0.0)

4.2

519.8

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(2,625.8)

(4,249.5)

(4,729.1)

1,531.3

2,187.7

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(2,748.7)

(4,372.5)

(4,336.4)

1,404.1

2,060.6

Reported tax

(3.8)

(3.8)

(3.8)

(468.6)

(592.6)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2,625.8)

(4,249.5)

(4,729.1)

1,531.3

2,187.7

Profit After Tax (reported)

(2,752.5)

(4,376.3)

(4,340.2)

935.5

1,468.0

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

 

 

(2,629.6)

(4,253.3)

(4,732.9)

1,062.7

1,595.1

Net income (reported)

 

 

(2,752.5)

(4,376.3)

(4,340.2)

935.5

1,468.0

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

17

23

33

35

36

EPS - basic normalised (¥)

 

 

(158.14)

(183.72)

(144.83)

30.22

44.82

EPS - diluted normalised (¥)

 

 

(104.91)

(180.46)

(143.00)

29.86

44.30

EPS - basic reported (¥)

 

 

(165.54)

(189.03)

(132.81)

26.60

41.25

Dividend (¥)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

200.9

386.5

395.1

394.5

409.7

Intangible Assets

71.4

240.5

228.8

202.3

184.6

Tangible Assets

57.0

75.5

95.9

121.8

154.6

Investments & other

72.6

70.4

70.4

70.4

70.4

Current Assets

 

 

6,038.5

4,887.5

4,177.5

5,267.1

6,890.9

Stocks

533.8

0.0

219.7

181.8

254.0

Debtors

411.7

549.3

285.8

1,011.3

1,258.5

Cash & cash equivalents

4,821.4

3,910.8

3,244.6

3,646.6

4,951.0

Other

271.6

427.4

427.4

427.4

427.4

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,336.3)

(872.2)

(1,236.6)

(1,390.0)

(1,561.0)

Creditors

(654.9)

(33.2)

(424.0)

(486.9)

(566.7)

Tax and social security

(71.2)

(87.8)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(610.2)

(751.3)

(812.6)

(903.1)

(994.3)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1.3)

(1.6)

(1.6)

(1.6)

(1.6)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(1.3)

(1.6)

(1.6)

(1.6)

(1.6)

Net Assets

 

 

4,901.8

4,400.1

3,334.4

4,270.0

5,738.0

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

4,901.8

4,400.1

3,334.4

4,270.0

5,738.0

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(2,714.0)

(4,334.4)

(4,215.5)

1,497.5

2,158.2

Working capital

184.5

(242.1)

346.8

(624.7)

(239.6)

Exceptional & other

208.8

229.5

127.1

127.1

127.1

Tax

(3.8)

(3.8)

(3.8)

(468.6)

(592.6)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(2,324.5)

(4,350.7)

(3,745.3)

531.4

1,453.2

Capex

(26.2)

(216.5)

(102.3)

(129.4)

(148.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

4,272.1

3,740.0

3,201.7

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

1,921.3

(827.2)

(645.9)

402.0

1,304.4

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2,947.1)

(4,821.4)

(3,910.8)

(3,244.6)

(3,646.6)

FX

(47.0)

(83.4)

(20.3)

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(4,821.4)

(3,910.8)

(3,244.6)

(3,646.6)

(4,951.0)

Source: SymBio reports, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SymBio Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SymBio Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SymBio Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SymBio Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

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Research: Metals & Mining

KEFI Gold and Copper — Rose gold

Since our last note, KEFI has continued to advance towards its goal of achieving production in FY22. Among other things, this has included raising £3.7m in equity in May and establishing early-stage mining specialist, RAB Capital, as a cornerstone investor. More recently, it has also announced a maiden mineral resource at Hawiah (in Saudi Arabia) of 19.3Mt at a grade of 1.86% copper equivalent containing 359kt CuE (or 1.2Moz AuE) and a corresponding preliminary economic assessment (PEA), which confirms it as a high priority target. The company has consistently maintained its goal of formally agreeing its full funding structure with all participants in October 2020, ahead of construction in FY21 and first gold in FY22 and, to this end, development activities have continued unabated, despite COVID-19.

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