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CI Games — Timing is everything for Lords of the Fallen 2

CI Games (WSE: CIG)

Last close As at 21/08/2026

PLN2.57

▲ 0.02 (0.78%)

Market capitalisation

PLN471m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

CI Games — Timing is everything for Lords of the Fallen 2

We believe that the market’s reaction to the CI Games announcement that the release of Lords of the Fallen 2 (LotF2) is being pushed out to Q1 next year is overly negative. The opportunity that this postponement offers to include additional customer feedback and further enhance gameplay while avoiding a potentially disruptive H226 release calendar lowers risk for shareholders. Such an approach could enhance shareholder value creation over the medium to long term.

Written by

Dan Ridsdale

Head of Technology

Software and comp services

Company update

29 July 2026

Price PLN2.48
Market cap PLN453m

Net cash/(debt)

 PLN(49.7)m

Shares in issue

 182.9m
Free float 114,823,889.0%
Code CIG
Primary exchange WSE
Secondary exchange N/A

Share price performance

Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 9.0 (24.5) (14.9)
52-week high/low PLN3.6 PLN2.2

Business description

Founded in 2002, CI Games is a Warsaw-based developer and publisher of AAA multi-platform video games for a global audience. It specialises in first-person shooter and action-driven titles and owns IP including the Sniper Ghost Warrior and Lords of the Fallen franchises.

Next events

H1 2026 results

24 September

Analysts

Dan Ridsdale
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Ross Jobber
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
tmt@edisongroup.com
Edison profile page

CI Games is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Consensus data, Source: LSEG data & analytics. Please note that the above consensus forecasts (as at 27/7/26) do not seem to reflect release postponement.
Year end Revenue (PLNm) EBITDA (PLNm) EPS (PLN) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
12/24 80.8 42.5 (0.03) N/A 11.8
12/25 73.8 32.7 0.02 123.8 15.4
12/26e 281.7 173.8 0.41 6.0 2.9
12/27e 208.2 141.7 0.26 9.5 3.5

Shares fall on announcement

On 24 June CI Games announced that the group’s eagerly awaited release of LotF2 was postponed until Q127 from the original proposed date of Q226. The shares initially fell 9.5% on the news, ending the day at PLN2.29 per share. Earlier in the month the shares had fallen from PLN3.04 to PLN2.49.

Context is important

There are two principal reasons why such an important launch would be delayed. First, the postponement could occur because an opportunity presents itself to improve such an important game franchise even more. Second, a postponement might occur to ensure that the launch window offers the best possible opportunity to establish the game in gamers’ minds.

Management is optimising upside while minimising risk

It is difficult to underestimate the importance of a title’s launch, particularly one as critical to CI Games as the LotF franchise. While the game will be bigger than its predecessor, the priority with LotF2 is to deliver the highest possible quality gaming experience. Modifying the release date is likely to maximise the revenue potential and therefore reduce risk, making it a sensible option.

Valuation: Nothing changes in the longer term

The long-term value creation potential of the business remains unchanged in our opinion (and with a postponed launch could actually be enhanced). In order to assess the investment opportunity that the current share price weakness represents, the question for investors is whether the announced delay affects their assessment of management’s ability to generate significant shareholder value over the medium to long term. We see little evidence to suggest that this is the case.

Lords of the Fallen falls into Q127

What happened?

On 24 June the Warsaw Stock Exchange halted trading in CI Games following the announcement that the group’s eagerly awaited release of LotF2 was postponed to Q127 from the original proposed date of Q226. The shares initially fell 9.5% on the news, ending the day at PLN2.29 per share. Earlier in the month the shares had fallen from PLN3.04 to PLN2.49. It is unclear how consensus forecasts will be revised, but it is safe to assume that the uplift in revenues and profitability expected in FY26 courtesy of the LotF2 launch will now be deferred into FY27.

How should this be interpreted?

It is difficult to underestimate the importance of a title’s launch, particularly one as critical to CI Games as the LotF franchise. There are two principal reasons why such an important launch might be delayed, neither of which should overly concern investors. First, the postponement could occur because an opportunity presents itself to further improve such an important game. Second, a postponement might occur to ensure that the launch window offers the best possible opportunity to establish the game in gamers’ minds. We believe that the delay of LotF2 fits both categories, noting that CEO Marek Tymiński has recently described LotF2 as ‘the most important game in the company’s history’ and ‘extremely important for the long-term future success of the company’.

We have written previously about how in recent years management has refocused on player feedback, placing the customer at the epicentre of the development journey. This strategy has yielded a significant amount of new ideas, with Tymiński acknowledging on X that ‘consistent community feedback has made us even more knowledgeable’.

A desire to incorporate new content into the release version sits behind the launch postponement. Tymiński also stated on X that since having established a Gameplay Feedback Team, CI Games has ‘identified meaningful opportunities to further refine and strengthen the overall experience. These enhancements will benefit from additional integration, iteration, and polishing time...’. The last phrase provides crucial context to understanding the postponement. While the game will be bigger than its predecessor, the priority with LotF2 is clearly to deliver the highest possible quality gaming experience.

Market outlook in H226

It is also important to take this delay within the context of the outlook for the games market in the second half of 2026. The next release of the highly successful Grand Theft Auto franchise, Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) has an official release date of 19 November 2026. The launch has the potential to be an industry-defining moment. The game has been in active development for more than eight years and while no official data has been released, market research firm Newzoo suggests GTA 6 generated roughly $260m in global digital pre-orders in the week after pre-orders became available in June. Based on typical video game pre-order patterns, this could put GTA 6 on track to sell c 50m units within a week of its November 2026 release.

The GTA 6 launch will doubtlessly dominate the market in Q4 and with a price that is expected to set new records, the launch has the potential to disrupt purchasing patterns for AAA games for much of H2. This is important context when analysing the LotF2 launch delay. Marek Tymiński alluded to this on X when writing that ‘releasing the game rather late in one of the hottest holiday seasons ever would have been a mistake’. Modifying the release date is likely to maximise the revenue potential and therefore reduce risk, making it a sensible option.

Valuation: What is the impact?

While there is undoubtedly a short-term effect on valuation approaches such as discounted cash flow analysis, the long-term value creation potential of the business remains unchanged in our opinion (and with a postponed launch could actually be enhanced). We note that the current consensus target share price is PLN3.6. This implies a valuation of PLN656m, which is below the PLN740–900m that we suggested in our note of June 2025 but still offers significant upside from current levels. In order to assess the investment opportunity, the question for investors to ask is whether the announced delay affects their assessment of management’s ability to generate significant shareholder value over the medium to long term. We see little evidence to suggest that this is the case.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by CI Games and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by CI Games. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Wheaton Precious Metals — Honing Q226 estimates

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q226 financial results are scheduled for release on 6 August. To date, production numbers from Salobo, Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay, Blackwater, San Dimas, Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan are already known and are broadly in line with our expectations. Production from Penasquito (announced on 23 July) was slightly below our expectations (7Moz cf 8Moz). However, we believe there is credible evidence that sales will have outperformed production in Q2, as a record historical under-sale of material in Q1 is reversed. Although precious metals prices have fallen by c 20.2% since our last note therefore, we have reduced our Q226 EPS forecast by only 1.9% to US$1.158 and our FY26 EPS forecast by only 15.6% to US$4.33. In this respect, we note that we remain at the more conservative end of the range of market expectations for the full year. Note that, if current metals prices prevail into next year, our FY27 EPS forecast would rise from that shown below to US$4.39(ie effectively flat cf FY26).

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