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Research: TMT
TXT e-solutions reported strong revenue and profit growth in Q121, reflecting the benefit of recent acquisitions and good cost control. Since the end of Q1, the company has signed promising contracts in both divisions, including the first contract for TXT Working Capital Solutions. We have revised our forecasts to reflect this performance, resulting in upgrades to our normalised EPS forecasts of 5.5% in FY21 and 6.9% in FY22. With net cash of €10.8m and treasury shares worth at least €9m, management indicated it is considering further M&A while continuing to drive organic growth.
TXT e-solutions |
Strong Q1 drives upgrades |
Q121 results |
Software & comp services |
18 May 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
TXT e-solutions is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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TXT e-solutions reported strong revenue and profit growth in Q121, reflecting the benefit of recent acquisitions and good cost control. Since the end of Q1, the company has signed promising contracts in both divisions, including the first contract for TXT Working Capital Solutions. We have revised our forecasts to reflect this performance, resulting in upgrades to our normalised EPS forecasts of 5.5% in FY21 and 6.9% in FY22. With net cash of €10.8m and treasury shares worth at least €9m, management indicated it is considering further M&A while continuing to drive organic growth.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/19 |
59.1 |
7.6 |
0.46 |
0.00 |
16.2 |
N/A |
12/20 |
68.8 |
7.1 |
0.47 |
0.04 |
15.7 |
0.5 |
12/21e |
86.7 |
8.7 |
0.53 |
0.06 |
13.8 |
0.8 |
12/22e |
92.4 |
10.0 |
0.61 |
0.08 |
12.0 |
1.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Profitability improved in Q121
TXT reported 32% y-o-y revenue growth for Q121, or 1% growth on an organic basis. The Aerospace & Aviation (A&A) division grew revenue 4% y-o-y (all organic) despite weakness in the civil aviation sector. The Fintech division grew revenue 83%; excluding recent acquisitions, revenue declined 4%. Group EBITDA increased 38% y-o-y (15% organic) with the margin expanding by 0.5% to 12.6% and net income increasing by 391% y-o-y. In addition to pandemic-related cost savings, the company has benefited from cost synergies across the group. TXT closed the quarter with net cash of €10.8m after paying €14.3m for the stake in Banca del Fucino and €0.9m for the Assiopay minority interest.
Promising contract wins in Q221; estimates raised
So far in Q2, the A&A division has signed partnership agreements to supply Pacelab FPO software to Airbus subsidiary NAVBLUE and its WEAVR extended reality platform to a corporate and a university. In the Fintech division, contracts were signed for TXT Working Capital Solutions’ Polaris software and Cheleo’s non-performing loan (NPL) software. Based on Q1 results and recent contract signings, we have increased our revenue and EPS forecasts for FY21 and FY22. Our normalised EPS forecast increases by 5.5% in FY21 and 6.9% in FY22.
Valuation: At a discount
TXT continues to trade at a discount to its peer group on all measures, despite the deployment of a large proportion of the company’s cash balance into fintech acquisitions, and revenue growth and profitability above the group average. Evidence of improving demand in the A&A division and growing revenues from the earlier stage fintech businesses should help to reduce this discount.
Review of Q21 results
Exhibit 1: Q121 results highlights
€m |
Q121 |
Q120 |
y-o-y |
Revenues |
21.5 |
16.3 |
32.1% |
Licences & maintenance |
2.0 |
2.3 |
-13.6% |
Services |
19.5 |
14.0 |
39.5% |
Gross profit |
8.3 |
7.3 |
13.7% |
Gross margin |
38.5% |
44.7% |
-6.2% |
EBITDA |
2.7 |
2.0 |
37.5% |
EBITDA margin |
12.6% |
12.1% |
0.5% |
Normalised EBIT |
2.2 |
1.5 |
43.0% |
Normalised EBIT margin |
10.1% |
9.4% |
0.8% |
Reported EBIT |
1.7 |
1.2 |
47.4% |
Reported EBIT margin |
8.0% |
7.2% |
0.8% |
Reported net income |
1.2 |
0.3 |
391.3% |
Net cash |
10.8 |
42.1 |
-74.3% |
Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research
TXT reported revenue growth of 32% y-o-y for Q121; excluding €5.0m of revenue contributed by acquisitions made in FY20, revenue grew 1% y-o-y. Gross profit grew 14% y-o-y, with gross margin declining 6pp as the acquisitions increased the weighting of lower-margin services revenue. EBITDA increased 38% y-o-y, with the margin increasing 0.5pp. R&D costs declined 8% reflecting the lower use of sub-contractors and synergies between group companies. Commercial costs increased 34%, mainly due to the acquired businesses but also due to investment in the fintech start-up businesses. G&A costs declined 14% as remote working reduced facilities costs and the company benefited from synergies across the group. Normalised EBIT increased 43% y-o-y and the normalised EBIT margin increased by 0.8pp. TXT generated net financial income of €0.3m from its invested funds. The reported tax rate was 38% in the quarter, down from 50% in Q120.
Exhibit 2: Changes in net cash position
€m |
FY20 |
Q121 |
Cash & cash equivalents |
11.9 |
13.5 |
Trading securities at fair value |
68.2 |
53.5 |
Short-term bank debt |
(28.2) |
(29.0) |
Short-term leases |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
Short-term earn outs |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
Long-term bank debt |
(18.9) |
(16.4) |
Long-term lease debt |
(3.6) |
(3.3) |
Long-term earn outs |
(4.9) |
(4.9) |
Net cash |
22.1 |
10.8 |
Source: TXT e-solutions
Net cash declined by €11.3m over the quarter. TXT paid €14.3m for its stake in Banca del Fucino (funded by selling trading securities) and €0.9m as part of the payment to buy out the 49% Assiopay minority interest. This was partially offset by €4.3m cash generated from operations. The company bought back 16k shares during Q1 at a cost of €0.1m and holds a total of 1.3 million treasury shares.
Divisional performance
The A&A division grew 4.4% y-o-y in Q121. Licence sales declined, partly due to lower civil aviation demand. Services revenue increased 8.9% y-o-y as the company sold more project work to the defence sector. With services making up 85% of divisional revenue in Q121 compared to 82% in Q120, this would have reduced divisional gross margin in Q121 versus Q120.
Exhibit 3: Divisional revenues, Q1
(€m) |
Q121 |
Q120 |
y-o-y |
Aerospace & Aviation (A&A) |
11.0 |
10.5 |
4.4% |
Software licences & maintenance |
1.7 |
2.0 |
-15.5% |
Services |
9.3 |
8.6 |
8.9% |
Fintech |
10.5 |
5.7 |
83.3% |
Software licences & maintenance |
0.3 |
0.3 |
-1.3% |
Services |
10.2 |
5.4 |
88.1% |
Group software licences & maintenance |
2.0 |
2.3 |
-13.6% |
Group services |
19.5 |
14.0 |
39.5% |
Source: TXT e-solutions
While business in civil aviation is currently subdued, in April PACE signed an agreement with NAVBLUE, a subsidiary of Airbus. NAVBLUE is a services company dedicated to flight operations and air traffic management solutions. PACE’s Pacelab FPO solution (flight planning optimisation software) will be integrated into NAVBLUE’s electronic flight folder (eFF+), representing a new route to market for PACE. TXT has also signed strategic partnerships for the use of its extended reality (XR) platform, WEAVR, with Paladin AI in Canada and for academic use at the Politecnico di Torino.
The Fintech division grew revenue 83.3% y-o-y. Stripping out the €5m contributed by MAC Solutions (acquired July 2020) and HSPI (acquired October 2020), revenue declined 3.5% y-o-y. The software testing business saw weaker demand during lockdown periods, which covered a greater proportion of Q121 than Q120. TXT continued to invest in the Faraday and Polaris solutions, with a net investment of €0.3m in the quarter.
In April, Cheleo signed a contract with AMCO to provide its NPL software to manage AMCO’s leasing receivables portfolio. In May, TXT Working Capital Solutions signed its first customer, Maire Tecnimont Group, to use its Polaris supply chain finance platform.
Changes to estimates
Exhibit 4: Changes to forecasts
FY21e old |
FY21e new |
change |
y-o-y |
FY22e old |
FY22e new |
change |
y-o-y |
|
Revenues (€m) |
84.6 |
86.7 |
2.5% |
26.1% |
90.0 |
92.4 |
2.7% |
6.5% |
Gross margin |
42.0% |
40.8% |
(1.2%) |
(1.8%) |
41.9% |
41.6% |
(0.2%) |
0.8% |
Gross profit |
35.6 |
35.4 |
(0.5%) |
20.9% |
37.7 |
38.5 |
2.1% |
8.7% |
EBITDA (€m) |
10.5 |
10.9 |
4.2% |
27.2% |
11.6 |
12.2 |
5.4% |
11.7% |
EBITDA margin |
12.4% |
12.6% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
12.8% |
13.2% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
Normalised EBIT (€m) |
8.4 |
8.8 |
5.4% |
34.4% |
9.4 |
10.1 |
6.7% |
14.5% |
Normalised EBIT margin |
9.9% |
10.1% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
10.5% |
10.9% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
Reported operating profit (€m) |
6.4 |
6.9 |
6.9% |
112.9% |
7.5 |
8.2 |
8.3% |
18.5% |
Normalised net income (€m) |
5.9 |
6.3 |
5.4% |
14.3% |
6.7 |
7.2 |
6.7% |
14.7% |
Reported net income (€m) |
4.6 |
4.9 |
7.0% |
7.4% |
5.4 |
5.8 |
8.4% |
18.8% |
Normalised EPS (€) |
0.51 |
0.53 |
5.5% |
13.9% |
0.57 |
0.61 |
6.9% |
14.5% |
Reported basic EPS (€) |
0.39 |
0.42 |
7.2% |
7.0% |
0.46 |
0.50 |
8.6% |
18.6% |
Net cash (€m) |
13.9 |
13.6 |
(2.2%) |
(38.3%) |
20.2 |
20.3 |
0.3% |
49.2% |
Dividend (€) |
0.06 |
0.06 |
0.0% |
50.0% |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.0% |
33.3% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
We have revised our forecasts to reflect Q121 results. We have increased our revenue forecasts for FY21e (+2.5%) and FY22e (+2.7%). To reflect the increased proportion of services revenue in the mix, we have reduced our gross margin assumptions. This results in an increase in FY21e EBITDA of 4.2% and FY22e of 5.4%. We raise our EPS forecasts by 5.5% in FY21e and 6.9% in FY22e.
Valuation
The table below shows TXT’s valuation versus its peer group of European software and services providers. TXT continues to trade at a discount to its peer group on all measures, despite the deployment of a large proportion of the company’s cash balance into fintech acquisitions, and revenue growth and profitability above the group average. In our view, the company’s exposure to the aerospace and aviation market is likely to be weighing on the share price, as is uncertainty over the likely performance of the recent spate of acquisitions. We expect this discount to reduce as TXT provides evidence of:
■
A&A: performance remaining stable at least, until customers in COVID-19-hit sectors feel more confident of their futures and resume/accelerate orders.
■
Fintech: the early-stage businesses (TXT Risk Solutions, TXT Working Capital Solutions) starting to generate material revenues and reaching break-even; banks resuming normal activity for software testing; international revenues growing.
■
Overall, software revenues growing as a percentage of the total, as these generate much higher gross margins.
Exhibit 5: Peer group financial and valuation metrics
Company |
Share price |
Market cap |
Rev growth |
EBIT margin |
EBITDA margin |
EV/sales |
EV/EBIT |
P/E |
Dividend yield |
|||||||
€ |
€m |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
|
TXT |
7.38 |
87 |
26.1% |
6.5% |
10.1% |
10.9% |
12.6% |
13.2% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
7.3 |
6.4 |
13.8 |
12.0 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
European IT services companies |
||||||||||||||||
AKKA Technologies |
23.06 |
724 |
3.6% |
7.0% |
0.4% |
6.1% |
9.5% |
10.9% |
0.7 |
0.6 |
158.8 |
10.4 |
N/A |
11.5 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
Alten |
99.05 |
3,415 |
12.3% |
7.2% |
7.4% |
8.8% |
10.1% |
11.4% |
1.3 |
1.2 |
17.2 |
13.5 |
24.2 |
18.9 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
AtoS |
54.70 |
6,055 |
1.5% |
2.5% |
7.8% |
8.7% |
14.2% |
14.7% |
0.7 |
0.7 |
8.8 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
7.1 |
2.1% |
2.5% |
Cap Gemini |
150.40 |
25,547 |
8.0% |
5.6% |
11.4% |
11.9% |
15.5% |
15.7% |
1.8 |
1.7 |
16.1 |
14.5 |
19.2 |
17.2 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
Devoteam |
106.40 |
892 |
4.7% |
6.6% |
9.9% |
10.3% |
11.6% |
11.5% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
10.4 |
9.4 |
19.4 |
17.4 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
ESI Group |
58.60 |
351 |
10.9% |
6.2% |
6.1% |
7.5% |
11.1% |
12.3% |
2.7 |
2.5 |
43.9 |
33.4 |
64.4 |
47.2 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Reply |
114.40 |
4,307 |
14.5% |
10.1% |
13.1% |
13.5% |
16.2% |
16.4% |
2.9 |
2.6 |
21.9 |
19.3 |
32.2 |
28.3 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Sopra Steria |
148.00 |
3,059 |
6.7% |
3.9% |
7.0% |
7.7% |
11.1% |
11.9% |
0.8 |
0.8 |
12.1 |
10.5 |
14.1 |
12.1 |
1.6% |
1.8% |
Average |
7.8% |
6.1% |
7.9% |
9.3% |
12.4% |
13.1% |
1.5 |
1.4 |
36.2 |
14.8 |
25.9 |
20.0 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
||
(Discount)/premium to peers |
(50%) |
(50%) |
(80%) |
(57%) |
(47%) |
(40%) |
(18%) |
(14%) |
||||||||
Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv (as at 13 May)
Exhibit 6: Financial summary
€'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
33,060 |
35,852 |
39,957 |
59,091 |
68,753 |
86,731 |
92,410 |
Cost of sales |
(18,954) |
(20,224) |
(22,289) |
(31,825) |
(39,469) |
(51,329) |
(53,941) |
||
Gross profit |
14,106 |
15,628 |
17,668 |
27,266 |
29,284 |
35,402 |
38,469 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
4,260 |
3,536 |
4,098 |
7,004 |
8,560 |
10,891 |
12,167 |
Operating Profit (before amort and except) |
3,954 |
3,180 |
2,755 |
5,408 |
6,542 |
8,795 |
10,071 |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(264) |
(439) |
(610) |
(1,142) |
(1,340) |
(1,900) |
(1,900) |
||
Exceptionals and other income |
(557) |
0 |
(300) |
(713) |
(1,963) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other income |
0 |
(69) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
3,133 |
2,672 |
1,845 |
3,553 |
3,239 |
6,895 |
8,171 |
||
Net Interest |
48 |
(208) |
(1,284) |
2,194 |
562 |
(100) |
(100) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
4,002 |
2,972 |
1,471 |
7,602 |
7,104 |
8,695 |
9,971 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,181 |
2,464 |
561 |
2,315 |
5,958 |
6,795 |
8,071 |
Tax |
(661) |
(710) |
4 |
(1,867) |
(1,162) |
(1,903) |
(2,260) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3,170 |
2,170 |
1,204 |
5,473 |
5,718 |
6,261 |
7,179 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,520 |
1,754 |
565 |
448 |
4,796 |
4,893 |
5,811 |
||
Ave. Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
||
EPS - normalised (€) |
|
|
0.271 |
0.186 |
0.102 |
0.456 |
0.470 |
0.535 |
0.613 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (€) |
|
|
0.271 |
0.186 |
0.102 |
0.456 |
0.470 |
0.535 |
0.613 |
EPS - (IFRS) (€) |
|
|
0.475 |
5.874 |
0.048 |
0.027 |
0.391 |
0.418 |
0.496 |
Dividend per share (€) |
0.30 |
1.00 |
0.50 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.08 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
42.7 |
43.6 |
44.2 |
46.1 |
42.6 |
40.8 |
41.6 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
12.9 |
9.9 |
10.3 |
11.9 |
12.5 |
12.6 |
13.2 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%) |
12.0 |
8.9 |
6.9 |
9.2 |
9.5 |
10.1 |
10.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
25,428 |
8,860 |
22,942 |
34,635 |
47,411 |
60,147 |
56,933 |
Intangible Assets |
21,296 |
7,332 |
17,751 |
24,380 |
37,652 |
37,286 |
35,270 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,598 |
793 |
3,680 |
7,929 |
7,460 |
6,262 |
5,064 |
||
Other |
2,534 |
735 |
1,511 |
2,326 |
2,299 |
16,599 |
16,599 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
37,085 |
109,426 |
134,674 |
127,052 |
126,036 |
115,708 |
117,308 |
Stocks |
3,146 |
2,528 |
3,141 |
4,156 |
4,749 |
5,049 |
5,349 |
||
Debtors |
26,369 |
17,215 |
16,992 |
24,150 |
41,193 |
47,524 |
50,636 |
||
Cash |
7,570 |
89,683 |
114,541 |
98,746 |
80,094 |
63,135 |
61,323 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(21,051) |
(13,612) |
(29,366) |
(43,129) |
(55,446) |
(61,075) |
(62,854) |
Creditors |
(20,243) |
(12,937) |
(12,062) |
(17,823) |
(24,811) |
(30,440) |
(32,219) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(808) |
(675) |
(17,304) |
(25,306) |
(30,635) |
(30,635) |
(30,635) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(7,180) |
(4,781) |
(41,903) |
(36,538) |
(32,138) |
(23,638) |
(15,138) |
Long term borrowings |
(1,391) |
(1,688) |
(36,882) |
(32,029) |
(27,398) |
(18,898) |
(10,398) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(5,789) |
(3,093) |
(5,021) |
(4,509) |
(4,740) |
(4,740) |
(4,740) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
34,282 |
99,893 |
86,347 |
82,020 |
85,863 |
91,142 |
96,249 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
10,676 |
119 |
2,039 |
(354) |
1,244 |
9,890 |
10,533 |
Net Interest |
105 |
(208) |
(69) |
3,102 |
(988) |
(100) |
(100) |
||
Tax |
(2,022) |
379 |
(624) |
(229) |
(1,332) |
(1,903) |
(2,260) |
||
Capex |
(738) |
(661) |
(548) |
(916) |
(1,156) |
(782) |
(782) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(5,403) |
82,250 |
1,314 |
(2,178) |
(11,701) |
(14,965) |
0 |
||
Financing |
(828) |
(6) |
(7,208) |
(4,287) |
(2,648) |
(130) |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(2,931) |
(3,496) |
(11,710) |
(5,781) |
0 |
(469) |
(703) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(1,141) |
78,377 |
(16,806) |
(10,643) |
(16,581) |
(8,459) |
6,688 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,259) |
(5,371) |
(87,320) |
(60,355) |
(41,412) |
(22,061) |
(13,602) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
(2,788) |
(2,500) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(1,747) |
3,572 |
(7,371) |
(5,800) |
(2,770) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(5,371) |
(87,320) |
(60,355) |
(41,412) |
(22,061) |
(13,602) |
(20,290) |
Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
The board of Acorn Income Fund (AIF) has announced the results of its strategic review ahead of the company’s five-yearly discontinuation vote in August. It is proposing to change the mandate from its present c 75% in UK smaller companies and c 25% in income-producing assets to a global equity income fund focused on sustainability and positive impact, managed by BMO Global Asset Management rather than the current partnership between Unicorn Asset Management and Premier Miton. AIF’s approach of investing in well-financed, income-generating and often domestically oriented small caps had led to a period of underperformance, partly attributable to Brexit uncertainty but compounded by last year’s COVID-19 induced dividend cuts. However, returns have rebounded strongly in the past year (see chart) as investors have begun to reassess the UK equity market. The board advises that shareholders who favour the move to BMO should vote against discontinuation and in favour of the proposals at the AGM and EGM in August. A circular will be published in due course.